Believe it or not, I do not advocate the rumored Halladay trade
So, what am I thinking to the Muskrat report that the Jays are asking us for our young-uns? Assuming, of course that it is, you know, true?
My first thought is immediately "Is Toronto out of its freakin' mind?" Because, unless Roy Halladay is some sort of automaton with impervious skin, if you have the Roy Halladay, don't you wish to avoid upsetting the Roy Halladay by shamelessly shopping him around for other teams' whelps?
Then, second of all, remember how cynically I thought about all the Starlin Castro hype that seemed to crop up from nowhere about a month ago? Well, I would assume Toronto would have done some evaluation before proposing such a trade. Perhaps it is NOT all hype? Maybe Castro, Vitters, and Cashman really are THAT good?
Ultimately, though, we have to examine our own situation when making a decision on a classic short-sell like this one. I have taken more than ten opportunities in the past two years to come out here and lecture on the importance of a Staff Ace, and conversely, the difficulty of NOT having a Staff Ace when it comes to winning championships, particularly when you are climbing the cosmic mountain of 102 straight seasons without a championship. Halladay would absolutely look smashing in Cubs pinstripes next year!
But, I would only make this totally future-mortgaging move if it were the only difference between us winning and losing in 2010. And I do not think that bringing in Roy Halladay, alone, will win us a pennant next year. He can come in here, throw 240 innings, log an ERA under 3, lead and mentor Dempster, Zambrano, Lilly and Wells, and yet we very well might end up behind the Cardinals again next year because our outfield can't hit, our middle infield can't field, and God only knows how Soto comes back in 2010?
As much as I covet the man, I do not make this trade, unless there is a viable plan in place to rehabilitate the lineup. That task comes first. We can resurrect Walter Johnson, Warren Spahn, Cy Young and Sandy Koufax and we still won't win dick with this batting order.
Roy
I hear your points and agree with most, but I think that you have to make this trade 100 out of 100 times. Sure he makes alot of money, but he is also head and shoulders above any other pitcher on the staff; an ace usually gets paid and the cubs pay a guy who's not an ace even more than Halladay. Trading the prospects doesn't scare me because cubs' scouting has produced very few prospects that have amounted to a thing, as you noted. But the one thing that making this move does is put the cubs and Jim Hendry into a different position; it essentially would put them into the drivers seat dealing from a position of strength relative to trades. The trade market looks to be much more fruitful than the free agent one this winter, so taking a stronger position in the market could pay huge dividends. Its a gamble, but the chance to acquire a Roy Halladay isn't set on your doorstep every day.
For me, probably a big
For me, probably a big condition of making this trade is whether or not the Jays would accept Zambrano. I love Carlos, but Halladay -- despite his advanced age -- is a better, more worthy carrier of the title "ace."