Let me go ahead and preface this, just so that there is no confusion here - I understand that nobody, but NOBODY, is going to sit there and go, "Why Mr. Wyers, I was thinking this exact thing when I saw Hill pitch tonight!" No. You are going to say, "Are you out of your mind? Have you lost the farm? Why the heck did they bring this guy on, anyways? More poop jokes! More poop jokes!"

So, again, let me be clear: I know what I am saying. I have thought it over.  I am not drunk or otherwise intoxicated, and so far as I can discern I am in full possession of my mental faculties.

Now then:

Rich Hill needs to stay in the starting rotation.

Come back to me as soon as you're done screaming at the monitor.

Okay, just so we're clear, this is the stat line that I'm arguing deserves to stay in the starting rotation:

19.6 innings pitched, 18 walks, 15 strikeouts, 2 home runs

Now, if I was trying to be weasely, I could present to you his current ERA, which is only 4.12, hardly a cause for concern. But you and I both know that would be a lie, and so let's out with it.

Using walks, strikeouts and home runs we can estimate what a pitcher's ERA would look like, given an average performance from the fielders behind him. It's called Fielding Independent Pitching, and what it really does is tries to eliminate the impacts of luck. Here's the gist:

(13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP +3.2

FIP seems to think that Hill's current ERA should be around 5.74. That's ungood. I'm sure you don't need me to tell you that's ungood.  But that's not as bad as Lilly's ERA right now, and the Cubs are committing to Lilly for the time being. (Although, to be fair, Lilly's FIP ERA is only 4.14.)

And here is what I want to submit to you, dear reader:

You cannot learn anything about a pitcher's true talent level from his performance in under 20 innings pitched.

Nothing. Not one thing. Why? Sample size. Baseball players go through streaks, and it's impossible to figure out what is a fluke and what's real based on such a small number of innings.

No, really, I'm serious. They do studies about this and everything. I mean, think about it. Do you really believe that all of the talent and ability Hill had last season suddenly vanished into thin air? Was he kidnapped and replaced by a startlingly convincing pod person? No? Okay then. Nineteen innings pitched does not invalidate what we knew about Rich Hill going into the season. And what we knew about Hill was that he was one of the top-ten strikeout pitchers in the National League. The Cubs are going to need the sort of production that Hill is capable of if they want to win more than 85 or so games this season.

Now it's a different matter entirely if there's a mechanical problem or an injury that Hill is dealing with. And if the Cubs know of a specific health issue or mechanical problem in Hill's delivery, they're by all means justified doing whatever they think is necessary to correct the specific problem.

Is that the case? Let's see what Lou said in his postgame conference:

"Hill can't start like this in the big leagues," Piniella said. "C'mon. Every time he pitches, it's an adventure. He's doing his best, but we have no bullpen. I don't know what the solution is, but I can't start him any more until this thing gets taken care of."

That does not sound to me like a man who knows what's causing Hill's problem, which tells me that the Cubs have not identified a specific problem with Hill's delivery. Which means (and I'm presuming that they're removing Hill from the rotation, which seems to be the implication) that the Cubs are making this decision based solely on his performance in 19.6 innings.

This is what the statisticians like to call an issue of selective endpoints - everything is magnified because it's the start of the season, and last season's results seem to suddenly disappear from memory. Put it to you this way - let's say it's the middle of August, and a pitcher has (so far) an ERA right around four, and for a few starts in a row, about 20 innings or so, starts walking a lot of batters. What do you do? Do you demote him to AAA?

Now answer me this: why is the start of May any different than the middle of August? Is it?

Now, for your consideration, here is a list of some pitchers with FIP ERAs higher than five, in no particular order:

• C.C. Sabathia
• Gil Meche
• Jon Lester
• Jon Garland
• Bronson Arroyo
• Jeremy Bonderman
• Brandon Backe
• Justin Verlander
• Tim Wakefield

All of them have over 30 innings pitched. Which of them would you demote to the bullpen until the sort out their difficulties? Which of them would you let work out their issues in the rotation?