There's only so many things a manager has control over.

He's gotta keep an eye on his starting pitcher, and he's gotta know which reliever to go to when it's time to make a change. He's the one that pulls the trigger on pinch hitters, and he'd better know the lefty/righty splits when he makes the change.

And every day, he sets the lineup for his team's offensive attack.

The Cubs have always had a few quirks regarding their approach to the lineup. Most notably, the "leadoff hitter" debate had (until very recently) gone on and on among Cub fans (e.g., "Drop Soriano!", or, "We need Brian Roberts!").

The Cubs have also struggled, for a few years now, to find a left-handed hitting RBI producer for the middle of their order. To that end, you know you have a problem when you allow a 36-year old Jermoy Burnitz to play right field for your major league team.

However, after two and a half years of unrest among the Wrigley Faithful, I think it's safe to say that Lou has settled upon the Absolutely, Positively Correct Lineup against right handed hitters.

If there's one thing about lineups that every baseball fan can agree on, it's this: when you set your lineup correctly, your 1 and 2 hitters will get on base in front of your 3-through-6 guys, who will slug in some RBIs for your team. On that note, here are the slugging percentages for the Cubs' three bona fide RBI guys (A-Ram, Lee and Soriano), in order, with a fourth mystery hitter included in the rankings.

1. A. Ramirez, .543
2. D. Lee, .539
3. Player X, .461
4. A. Soriano, .443

Player X is Kosuke Fukudome, and for the foreseeable future, the Cubs' left-handed RBI producer. On Sunday, Lou made the last needed change to improve an otherwise optimal Cub lineup by moving Kosuke into the 5th spot, and pushing Milton Bradley up to the 2-hole.

Fuk hasn't always been the clear choice for the 5-hole on this team. He started well in 2009, posting solid numbers in April and May, before seriously slumping in June (his slash line for that month was .169/.266/.241). At that point, the question was whether Kosuke should pay at all, not where he should hit.

Since then, however, the Fukster has been on fire. As proof of his deserving a regular spot in the Cub lineup, he recently broke his habit of posting declining numbers in each subsequent month of the season.

Furthermore, he did so in glorious fashion. His July slash: .307/.392/.534. Wonderful.

Kosuke's .461 slugging percentage is roughly 60 points higher than that of the man he's replacing, the famously infamous Milton Bradley. But Bradley isn't beat in every category; despite a .230 average against righties, as of today MB is sporting an overall on-base percentage of .401, which is very nice (and 53 points higher than Ryan "Sluggo" Theriot's).

Rest assured, Cubdom. Even as the team struggles through a stretch of tough games, made more painful by the Cardinals' feasting on weak opponents, at least we've got the right lineup in place. Finally.

Kudos to Rob’s suggestion on moving Daddy to the leadoff spot where his .379 OBP will fit nicely. I LOVE me some OBP talk. It really gets me excited in all the places where baseball statistics shouldn’t.

So to indulge my primal urges, let’s take Rob’s idea a step further.

I’ll assume most of you are familiar with on-base percentage, so I won’t waste your time explaining how it’s calculated. Let’s just keep in mind that a decent OBP is considered to be about .340. The current league average for OBP is .331. As it stands at the All-Star Break, the Cubs have a .322 team OBP.

What makes OBP so important is the value of outs. In baseball, outs (and the ability to not make them) means everything. As long as an offense doesn’t make outs, then anything is possible. Duh. This is essentially what OBP measures.

Last season, the Cubs had a .354 team OBP (first in the NL). Every regular starter on that team had at least a .344 OBP (which belonged to Soriano…go figure). While that team also had a strong batting average and decent power numbers, we know that the 2009 team just isn’t the same.

So let’s call it like it is: The 2009 Cubs can’t hit dick.

But there are other ways to get on the base paths and score runs without hitting the ball. That’s called OBP baby. So here’s my Cubs OBP-maximization batting order (Spoiler Alert: No Fonzie)…

*Current OBP in parentheses

1. Sam Fuld LF (.474) –  He has a small sample size but he did have a .359 OBP in Iowa and still leads that team in walks this season.

2. Milton Bradley RF (.379) – With his power missing, this is the best spot for him.

3. Kosuke Fukudome CF (.367) – He’ll keep the train coming for the power behind him.

4. Derrek Lee 1B (.354) – Got to put him here for that .511 SLG.

5. Aramis Ramirez 3B (.375) – Also a fairly small sample size because of injuries, but pitchers will be forced to throw more fastballs with guys on base.

6. Geovany Soto C (.336) – Believe it or not, Soto has the third most walks on the team (34).

7. Ryan Theriot SS (.354) – Could be higher, but you need to get guys on base so the eight and nine hitters don’t have to actually swing the bat.

8. Pitcher (Pointless) – They can lay down sac bunts any time Theriot gets on.

9. Bobby Scales 2B (.333) – Can’t be worse than Fontenot (.307) or Miles (.240). Solid minor league OBP of .399 this season with the iCubs.

You down with OBP? Yeah you know me.

Update: The moves have been announced.

Fuld and Hart have been sent to AAA, and Patton is on the DL with a groin strain.

As for the line-up, here's tonight's:

Fukudome, CF
Theriot, SS
Lee, 1B
Bradley, RF
Ramirez, 3B
Soriano, LF
Soto, C
Fontenot, 2B
Wells, P

From earlier:

At some point today, the Cubs will announce their recall of Aramis Ramirez, Reed Johnson, and Angel Guzman to the major league club's active roster. They'll also announce the corresponding roster moves they've made to make room for these three bona fide major league players.

In my opinion, roster and line-up speculation is what makes sports blogging fun. Not only do you get to play GM, but you also get nearly instant feedback from other passionate fans with interesting ideas of their own.

With that, let's try to get some opinions in the comments on what folks are thinking would be ideal for the club at this point. There are two questions to answer:

1) Who should be sent down?

2) How should Lou line the hitters up now that Aramis is back?

Last season the Cubs were one of maybe five teams to get bonafide offensive output from the catcher's spot.  Subsequently, there's going to be a fair amount of debate about where to bat Soto in 2009 and an argument can be made for a number of options.

2nd - Not really.  But Soto does have a high enough OBP to bat even here.  Last year he drew 62 walks in 556 plate appearances.  That's an OBP of .364. 

4th or 5th - On some teams with less offensive firepower than the Cubs, Soto might have the slugging ability to justify batting either cleanup or protection.  He hit 23 homeruns last year and there's no reason to assume that he won't hit even more this year, apart from your typical concerns about how playing catcher grinds you down and can affect your power stroke.

7th - Based on Lou Piniella's early lineup projections, Soto may bat here.  Rather than complain too much over sticking such a talented hitter so low in the order, consider the guys who'd be batting directly in front of him.  In reverse order - Fukudome, Ramirez (or better yet, Lee), Bradley, Lee (or better yet, Ramirez).  The lowest OBP of that whole lot last season was Fukudome's, who still got on base at a .359 clip despite forgetting how to hit for a quarter of the season.  In other words, Soto would have a ton of chances to drive in runs from there.

8th - This is just a thought.  These days, a lot of smart people would tell you to put your worst hitter here.  On most teams that is the catcher, but in this case it's probably Theriot.  Then again, there's another school of wisdom which states that teams might actually want to give their catchers fewer at bats over the course of the season to help prevent wear and tear.  Regardless, the only reason I'm even suggesting it is because with perhaps Lee, Fukudome, and Theriot directly ahead of him, Soto would probably have a surprising number of RBI opportunities.

Hey, it makes about as much sense as Piniella saying that Soriano's like a second cleanup hitter if he's batting with Fukudome, Soto, and Theriot "ahead" of him with just the pitcher between them.  As if a pitcher isn't inclined to ground into double plays, or more likely to face a situation with 2 outs.  Anyway, I digress.

Cubs.com journalist Carrie Muskat wrote yesterday that all of our hopes for a superior lineup might be dashed early. 

Muskat quotes Lou Piniella in saying that Alfonso Soriano won't be moving down in the lineup and, in fact, that Lou is leaning toward the following:

1. Soriano
 2. Aaron Miles
 3. Derrek Lee
 4. Milton Bradley
 5. Aramis Ramirez
 6. Kosuke Fukudome
 7. Geovany Soto
 8. Ryan Theriot

I'm not feeling it and if Piniella in fact uses this lineup more than 20 times in 2009, I'll probably have to get in line to register a Fire Lou Piniella website.  But I'm still running on faith that Piniella will give the positional battles to the most deserving players, meaning that Miles won't play in front of Fontenot too often, and also that he'll wise up and drop Lee in the order. 

Then again, this came from a story written by Carrie Muskat.  How accurate could it possibly be?

Despite the "predictions" tag I used, I'm not trying to be Goatstradamus here or anything.  I am not saying that this is what I expect to happen.  I'm not even saying that the guys who decide about things on these matters will agree with me.  But if today was opening day and in a moment of frantic desperation Jim Hendry called me up for advice, this is the Cubs team I'd trot out to face the league.

SP
1. Carlos Zambrano - Arm problems?  Inconsistent delivery?  Loss of "ace" status to Ryan Dempster last October?  Zambrano remains the best Big Game Pitcher the Cubs have.
2. Ryan Dempster - A 17-game winner and receiver of a large contract this past winter, Dempster probably won't have as good a 2009 but he should still be a reliable #2 starter.
3. Ted Lilly - The Ice Man has been worth every dollar of his contract so far.  Another 17-game-winner, Lilly just might be the best #3 pitcher in the NL.
4. Rich Harden - Call him the defacto 5th starter if you want, but it's an insult to his talent to even have him listed as the #4 guy.  If Harden had a healthy arm, he'd be a perennial Cy Young contender.  If he can be healthy enough to give the Cubs 25+ starts in 2009, then he'll be hands-down the best #4 pitcher in the game.
5. Jeff Samardzija - My first controversial pick!  Here's the logic: he's proven that, in a limited capacity, he can pitch effectively in the Major Leagues.  He's young, will certainly encounter growing pains, may get his ass handed to him from time to time, but pitching for an offensive juggernaut on a team with four other extremely talented guys in the rotation means that there is room to grow.  In other words, the Cubs can afford to allow the Shark to struggle.  And while he is unlikely to have the same impact as the '98 version of Kerry Wood, he just might be one of those feel-good stories that comes along every once in a while.

Note: The next section has been edited on account of how I forgot about Heilman.  Vizcaino has subsequently been moved to long relief and Heilman has been inserted into the MR role.  My official take is this: if Guzman gets "awarded" another option, let him start out in Iowa out of the rotation.  If he doesn't, then his fate will be determined by the guys who are gunning for the 5th spot of the rotation.  If Shark actually does win, Guz is done.  If Shark loses and starts his year in Iowa, then Guzman becomes the defacto Long Reliever, Vizcaino gets bumped back to Middle Relief, and all is well. 

The Bullpen
LR - Luis Vizcaino - He's sort of the forgotten man on the Cubs pitching staff, at least by fans.  From 2004 to 2006, he was a reliable arm.  In '07 he was Howry-like, and in '08 he was even worse.  The good news is that he remains an effective strikeout pitcher (which tells us a little bit about his stuff).  The bad news is he gave up a Howry-load of homeruns in '08 (even though he was pitching in Colorado, but he gave up an even number of homers at home and on the road).  If he can rebound, he'll be a reliable arm.  If not, he'll just be another Gas Can.  But he won't be able to do too much damage as a long reliever if he's running on fumes.
LHMR - Neal Cotts - I don't like him.  Watching him pitch is a sweat-inducing experience.  Unfortunately he's entrenched and I doubt that any other lefty reliever can outperform him. 
RHMR - Aaron Heilman - He wants to start but he might not get the chance.  He's possibly good enough to serve in the setup role, perhaps even better than Gregg if he finds his groove again.  When you consider how unreliable the Cubs pen was after its three best pitchers, and you then look at this year's bunch, it's really Heilman who puts them over as having improved.  With him - and even with Cotts and Vizcaino occupying roster spots - the Cubs might be five strong out of the pen -- and that sort of thing can make a huge difference in the playoffs.
RHMR - Chad Gaudin - Gaudin wants to start.  Can't say I don't blame him.  In my pretend scenario, he lost the gig fair and square to Samardzija.  Last year as a Cub he was pretty good until he got hurt and was Piniella's whipping boy in the August 22nd game against the Nationals.  Based on his age and ability, I'd expect him to be reliable.
LHSU - Sean Marshall - Not that he's shown a ton of ability to be an Out pitcher, but between he and Cotts it's a no-brainer.  If Piniella needs a lefty in the 8th inning, Marshall will be his guy in '09 in this pretend scenario.
RHSU - Kevin Gregg - It's true - Carlos Marmol is better for this job.  For 2 years, Kevin Gregg has been a reliable-if-not-unimpressive closer.  If baseball was a computer game, I'd assign this gig to Marmol.  Since baseball is played by people with egos, it goes to Gregg.
CL - Carlos Marmol - The most dominating setup man of my lifetime has earned his shot to close.  I can't see why he'd fail.  Marmol shutting down the opposition in the 9th would be a refreshing change on the North Side.

The Regulars

C - Geovany Soto - In his second full season, I'd hope and expect Geo to have a year similar to that of many premier catchers in their second full years.  In his second year, Johnny Bench saw his OPS go up by almost 100 points.  Carlton Fisk saw his power numbers go up, but his AVG dropped by about .50 points.  Pudge Rodriguez's OPS went up by about 70 points.  Mike Piazza's numbers were almost identical.  Granted, none of that is at all relevant to Soto.  But I do not think he'll do worse, and based on his age he could do better. 

1B - Derrek Lee - If they made a movie about Lee's life at this moment, maybe they'd call it The Slow Decline.  I'd still expect Derrek to be a reliable bat in the lineup and glove in the field, although he was defensively shaky in '08.

2B - Mike Fontenot - Bats lefty?  Check.  Good pop to his swing?  Check.  Gritty?  Check.  Shawty has played well and I expect that he will earn his way to the starting role come April. 

SS - Ryan Theriot - I believe that Theriot will probably produce numbers somewhere between his '07 and '08 output.  That would land him at a .287 AVG, 25 doubles, 3 triples, 2 homers, and about a 75% base stealing success percentage.  Oh, and his OPS would be at .358.  Actually that about puts him right where he'd need to be to leadoff.  More on that later.

3B - Aramis Ramirez - I don't think Ramirez will hit 38+ homeruns again, as he appears to have elected not to go the Sammy Sosa route in terms of career progression.  But at 30, he is still well within the window of legitimate Massive Production.  If A-Ram has the kind of year he is capable of, then the Cubs opponents will weep.

Lf - Alfonso Soriano - This guy is bound to stay healthy sooner or later, right?  I mean, he was never injury prone before he began dodging Wrigley Field potholes, so we may have a healthy '09 to look forward to for Sori.  Imagine the kind of runs the Cubs would score if he was smashing the ball with regularity all season long.

CF - Kosuke Fukudome - Before he came to Chicago and tried to bring back the twist, Fukudome was a pure hitter of science and grace.  Call me crazy, but I believe he could return to form.  Maybe he'll never be a hitter of Matsui/Ichiro proportions, but if he can actively increase his offensive output in 2009 then the Cubs will have a phenomenal lineup.

RF - Milton Bradley - Crazy Milton had the best OPS in baseball last year.  He walks a ton.  He hits the ball a ton.  He gets injured a ton.  He hasn't had a healthy year since 2004.  Maybe he's due?

Bench

C - Paul Bako - What does Paul Bako have in common with only two Cubs on the current roster?  He's played for the Cubs when they won playoff games and a playoff series.  Not that it means much.  I can't believe he'll live up to the work of Henry Blanco, but as a backup how much will it matter?

IF - Aaron Miles - He's replacing the versatility of Mark DeRosa without the actual hitting ability.  He's spent time playing every position but catcher and first base, and while he's not a homerun hitter, Miles does get his fair share of singles.  If he can match his career averages of .289 in a limited capacity, then he might be extremely valuable in 2009.

IF - Luis Rivas - Based on their current available players, the unlikelihood of pursuing another Nomar, and their undeniable need for another infielder who can play shortstop, it's pretty hard to deny that Rivas will break camp with the Cubs in April.  He's offensively about as exciting as Neifi Perez was in his heyday, but as long as he isn't as stupid with the glove as Ronny Cedeno was, I can't see him being any worse.

OF - Reed Johnson - Reed Johnson is one of the best bargains Jim Hendry has acquired in recent years.  Picked up off the scrapheap after back surgery, Reed delivered unto the Cubs a great performance in 2008.  Based on his consistency (apart from the year of the back surgery), it's safe to bet that Reed will see more at bats than any other backup outfielder in 2009, and he should do well there.

OF - So Taguchi - Probably the second most controversal "choice" I've made, this selection is where Childhood Dreams go to die.  Micah Hoffpauir turns 29 in a week or so and had a great month with the Cubs last year.  Joey Gathright is a 27-year-old bases-stealing fool.  Taguchi can converse fluently in Kosuke Fukudome's native tongue.  I love Hoffpauir, but I don't think it's realistic that he will be a successful major leaguer.  I've made this point before, so here it is again: if he's as good as you think he is, then how come he's on the bubble with the Cubs and not a single Major League GM has attempted to acquire him?  Don't you think a tight-budgeted team would spring at the chance to acquire a guy who - according to you - will outperform Derrek Lee and his 12 million dollar 2009 contract?  Sorry, just thought I'd point that out.  Anyway, probably Gathright is the better choice, although both he and Taguchi both suck fairly badly.  There are really only two things working in So's favor - a) he could be a friend for Fukudome, and b) he bats righty, and the Cubs have a lot of lefty bench bats. 

Lineup and unscientific projections:

Taking this scenario a step further, below is how I'd bat 'em and how I think they might do (if the stars align correctly)

1. Ryan Theriot - .285 AVG, .350 OBP, 30 SB, 5 CS
2. Mike Fontenot - .285 AVG, .350 OBP, 30 2B, 15 HR, 5-10 SB
3. Aramis Ramirez - .300 AVG, .370 OBP, 40 2B, 35 HR
4. Milton Bradley - .300 AVG, .400 OBP, 40 2B, 25 HR
5. Alfonso Soriano - .285 AVG, .340 OBP, 40 2B, 40 HR, 20 SB
6. Derrek Lee - .290 AVG, .350 OBP, 30 2B, 20 HR
7. Geovany Soto - .280 AVG, .340 OBP, 30 2B, 25 HR
8. Kosuke Fukudome - .280 AVG, .360 OBP, 30 2B, 10-15 HR, 10-15 SB

That would be potent.  It's also surely on the high side a little but don't forget, we are blogging from pretend land today.

Anyway, I like this team.  I like the roster.  The rotation is solid, the bullpen isn't weak, the lineup is amazing (and probably could score the most runs in all of baseball), and there is enough depth for me to not feel too worried about potential injuries.

With news that Alfonso Soriano does not care where he bats in the lineup, I figured it was time for another one of our pointless lineup threads where we weigh the facts and figures before promptly ignoring them and going with our gut Decider style. 

As I've mentioned about twenty times before, from my understanding the ideal lineup should feature your two highest OBP's at the tippy top with your #2 hitter being the one with a higher slugging percentage.  Your player with the best OPS on the team should bat 3rd, the guy with the best slugging percentage should bat 4th, and 5-9 should be your players based on their OPS.

There are a few other circumstances to consider, though.  For example, for "strategery" reasons you might want to stack your lineup as L-R-L as possible so as to force the opposing team to use up the arms in their bullpen quicker in important situations.

Anyway, here are the two options I like the most:

1. Theriot RHB
2. Fontenot LHB
3. Ramirez RHB
4. Bradley SH
5. Soriano RHB
6. Soto RHB
7. Lee RHB
8. Fukudome LHB

Where you'd bat Lee or Soto in this situation is debatable, but I think that Geovany might be the better of the two hitters in 2009.

Here's option #2:

1. Fukudome LHB
2. Lee RHB
3. Bradley SH
4. Ramirez RHB
5. Soriano RHB
6. Soto RHB
7. Fontenot LHB
8. Theriot RHB

Basically my opinion is that because Theriot lacks in the ability to hit the ball hard, he's either the 1st hitter in the lineup or the 8th.  Lee is not the ideal #2 hitter, but he might not be a terrible choice to bat there. 

Anyway, food for thought, yadda yadda, time to get to work.

Realistically speaking, with the pickup of Milton Bradley the Cubs have probably made their last huge addition to the team, barring a trade of some kind for a #5 starter - and we have to assume that Jake Peavy is probably a slimly acquirable option.

Already many of us Goat Riders have posted our lineup thoughts, so I figure what better way to start a Wednesday morning than to open the topic up to you, the reader.  So, if you could, please answer the following questions:

1. What do you think will be the best possible lineup?

2. If the Cubs don't add another pitcher to the team, which current Cub becomes the #5 starter next year?

3. Do you think the Cubs will land Peavy?

4. Does my ass look big in these pants?

I look forward to reading - and forcefully disputing - your opinions.

So, Colin weighed in below with his thought on what the lineup *should* be, so I thought I would go ahead and suggest what I believe the lineup *will* be.  The lineup constructed below is based on a combination of indepth analysis, pop psychology, and Ovaltine.  So, without further delay:

1. Alfonso Soriano
2. Mike Fontenot
3. Aramis Ramirez
4. Milton Bradley
5. Derrek Lee
6. Geovany Soto
7. Kosoke Fukudome
8. Ryan Theriot

Not bad, eh?  Okay, so, my reasoning is as follows:

• Piniella doesn't really give a damn who leads off.  He knows it doesn't matter, I know it doesn't matter and, deep down, you know it doesn't matter.  So, in the interest of nonscrewingwithsomethingthatworked, Soriano stays in the leadoff position.
• I've looked deep into Piniella's eyes, past the optical nerve, and into his soul and I see that Pineila knows that Fontenot is the right choice for second.  I also saw that he wants the lefty high in the order as Piniella recognizes Fontenot's combination of patience and pop (and he really, really wants to mix up the lefties and righties).  I also saw a surprising number of puppies and kittens frolicking in a meadow.  I didn't expect that.
• Here's where it gets tricky.  I think Piniella throws Aramis into the three hole and says "look, Lee's a great hitter but you've got to mix up the righties and lefties", which brings us to...
• Bradley and Lee.  Seriously, these three could get flipped and flopped in almost any configuration and I woudn't be surprised.
• Geo Soto, the easiest call in the lineup
• Fukudome sent plenty of time in the seven hole and will likely continue to toil there.  I don't believe Piniella cares much for Fukudome's approach, but what can you do?
• When Theriot wasn't in the two hole, he was in the 8th position.  Unless he bats Bradley third and move Theriot to second, this is where we find li'l Ryan.  And since I've already used my soul vision to determine where Fontenot hits, that just leaves Theriot here.

So there you have it.  Basesd on the projections Colin linked below and this tool, I've got the lineup at 5.2 runs.  Perhaps Colin could run it through his more sophisticated tool and we can see just what a difference the lineup will make.  My guess: almost none.

Congrates to Jim Hendry for, one again, getting the best player available.  It's nice to be a part of the new Chicago Cubs.

I'm covering territory already looked at by Goat Reader Harry Caray and Goat Rider Colin* but I just can't help myself.  At the end of March, Lou and Jim are going to have some decisions to make as the Cubs are looking exceptionally deep right now in almost all facets.  Let's take a look at how things might look (with players who are on the bubble in italics)

(*in my defense, I wrote this last night before bed, which means that technically speaking, in a roundabout way, I sort of beat Colin to the punch)

The Rotation -
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly
Ryan Dempster
Rich Harden

The Bullpen -
Angel Guzman
Michael Wuertz
Sean Marshall
Chad Gaudin
Neal Cotts
Kevin Gregg
Jeff Samardzija
Carlos Marmol

The Starting Lineup -
SS Ryan Theriot RHB
2B Mike Fontenot LHB
3B Aramis Ramirez RHB
RF Milton Bradley SH
LF Alfonso Soriano RHB
1B Derrek Lee RHB
C Geovany Soto RHB
CF Kosuke Fukudome LHB

The Bench -
IF/OF Micah Hoffpauir LHB
CF Felix Pie LHB
IF Ronny Cedeno RHB
IF/OF Aaron Miles SH
OF Reed Johnson RHB
OF Joey Gathright LHB
C Paul Bako LHB

That's 27 players for 25 positions, and it seems likely at a glance that The Hoff and Pie are the odd men out.  Let's also not forget that the Cubs may or may not be in the running for Jake Peavy.

Let's note as well that my ideal lineup is different than Colin's.  He's right that Fukudome might be a better leadoff hitter, but I can't see batting D-Lee #2 for a bunch of reasons.

Anyway, the question is this - how does the 09 Cubs compare offensively with the 08 model?

Well, it's a little bit complicated.  Milton Bradley is the new right fielder, but he's not replacing the numbers of Fukudome - he's essentially replacing the stats of Jim Edmonds.  Fontenot is straight up replacing the offense of DeRosa.  But you can't just look at their runs scored and runs driven in, or their OPS, if you want to calculate whether or not they'll be an upgrade.  Defensively, Fukudome is a better CFer than the limited-ranged Edmonds, but Bradley's worse than Fukudome was in RF.  Fontenot is projected to be a better defender than DeRo.

But that still doesn't answer the question.  We also have to consider the other players on the team - who's likely to have as good a year offensively?  Or a better year?  Or a worse one?

I think it's fair to say that Soto, Soriano, and yes, Fukudome will put up better numbers in '09 than they did in '08 for various reasons.  Soto is still at the age where he should actually improve as a hitter, assuming he doesn't suffer from a sophomore slide.  Soriano missed considerable time last year and we can't assume he'll get hurt for a third year in a row.  And Fukudome - if he gets in shape and figures out his hitting mechanics - should have a better second season in my opinion.  Hopefully.

The players I'd expect to put up similar numbers to last year are Lee and Ramirez - Derrek looks like he's on the decline, but I don't think he'll drop off a cliff next year though he might hit more doubles and fewer homers.  Aramis may put up better numbers, but he'll at least probably stay consistent.

I suspect Theriot will struggle to match '08's stats, although if he reverts to his career average he won't have that much of a drop-off.  As for Fontenot, while I don't think he's going to match DeRosa's output in '08, all indications - except for the contrary opinion of a reader who at this point is just being ornary - are that he should put up good numbers and probably better numbers than DeRosa will in Cleveland in '09.  And Bradley, if he stays healthy - and maybe even if he doesn't - will likely outproduce Edmonds of '08.

Of course, it's all tremendous speculation at this point, but one thing the Cubs managed to do is dramatically improve the balance of their lineup.  Next year's squad will not be as righty heavy - 3 of the 8 starters can swing the bat from the left hand side, while almost every bench player will also be able to bat lefty.

Therefore, I'd have to say that while the '09 Cubs may not surpass the '08 squad offensively, they should come very close to the same totals while being far better balanced for an October run. This team should make for an interesting season.