GoatRiders of the Apocalypse

In other words, the Cubs have signed themselves their first Cuban defector in recent memory.  The player in question is Juan Yasser Serrano, a pitcher who is apparently destined for Double (or possibly Triple) A. 

Serrano brings with him a fastball in the low 90's, and is reportedly 21 years of age.  (Keyword: reportedly.)  It'd be interesting to look a little deeper into the numerous Cuban defectors through the years, in order to uncover the number of them who are actually successful, but my feelings are that it's actually a small number who move on to glorious things. 

But one thing I will say about Cuba: their jerseys are pretty cool.  I gotta get one.

Picture may or may not be of an actual Cuban baseball player

Confession time -- I have not exactly been spending a ridiculous amount of time thinking about the Cubs this off-season.  In fact, if I measured the amount of time I've really considered the future of the Chicago Cubs, I could probably count the minutes on both hands.  It's not that I am Cub-burned out, or anything, I've just been busier than ever before in my life.

Luckily -- or not, depending on your outlook for 2010 -- the Cubs haven't exactly been burning up the AP wire with moves so far this winter.  They finally managed to deal Milton Bradley for an equally detestable, overpaid, abortion of a human being (whose presence will only be detrimental every 5th day, rather than every single day) and the Cubs have also managed to sign themselves Marlon Byrd, who'll make about half of what Bradley made with about the same offensive output.  In other words, the team is hardly any better, except maybe in the clubhouse.

Still, as the cliche goes, it's relatively early.  There's plenty of time for Jim Hendry to pull a team-saving deal out of his ass, even if it's about as likely as Charlize Theron returning my phone call -- or even making eye contact with me.  Without really weighing favor in any one move, the following is my take on what should happen between now and March:

First, the likely 25-man roster:

SP - Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Randy Wells, Tom Gorzelanny, Carlos Silva
MR - John Grabow, Sean Marshall, Angel Guzman, Carlos Marmol

C - Geo Soto, Three Finger Hill
1B - Derrek Lee
2B - Jeff Baker, Mike Fontenot
SS - Ryan Theriot, Andres Blanco
3B - Aramis Ramirez
LF - Alfonso Soriano, Micah Hoffpauir
CF - Marlon Byrd, Sam Fuld
RF - Kosuke Fukudome

My initial thoughts here are that while this is better than the far-gone days of Ronny Cedeno-to-Neifi Perez, or Ron Coomer and Matt Stairs straddling the corners, this is not the team that will hold up a World Series trophy.  The rotation is a borderline weakness, the bullpen is incomplete, the middle infield is about offensively able as a one-armed cricket player, and neither Soriano nor Fukudome can be relied upon at this point to justify their bulging contracts. 

So -- why does Jim Hendry still have a job?  What's he done this winter to justify his position?  And how will Tom Ricketts prove himself as an owner?  At this point this whole thing has kinda sucked ass.

Still, let's look at the free agents who remain and the things the Cubs can do to surprise us:

Relievers
First and foremost, Marmol is the defacto closer.  This is a concern unless you want your 9th inning pitcher to be as likely to bury a ball into the batter's ear as he is to throw an epic strike-out pitch.  My general rule about relief pitchers is that they should be no older than 32 when signed as free agents, because they seem to become dramatically less reliable once they're in their mid 30's.  Although the best of the crop are gone, according to ESPN the following remain available:

Danys Baez, 32, - A former closer who posted a 4.02 ERA in the most offensively destructive division in baseball last year.  Worst case scenario, Baez could be a 7th inning guy or even a set-up option.  Best case scenario, the man with 22 walks in 71.2 innings of work last year could be an alternative if Marmol melts down or flames out.

Joe Beimel, 32, - A lefty, Cub fans might best remember him from that time he owned our team in the playoffs in 2008.  He posted an ERA of 3.58 last year with two teams, including the Rockies, and although he looks like a douchebag he can't possibly be worse than Bradley/Silva.  Then again, the Cubs have their bullpen lefties, so he's not a necessity.

D.J. Carrasco, 32, - How do you throw 48 games in relief, including 89.1 innings, and not manage to log a single hold the entire season?  Ask Carrasco, who must've done something to piss off former manager Ozzie Guillen.  Still, Carrasco logged a 3.43 ERA as a reliever last year.

Mike MacDougal, 32, - Another White Sox cast-off, MacDougal had a 12.46 ERA in his 5 White Sox appearances last year, before finding himself in D.C. where he pitched 54.1 innings, posted a 3.60 ERA, and saved 20 games in 21 tries.  That's the good.  The bad - he walked and struck out 31 players, neither number particularly encouraging especially when compared to each other.  But as far as insurance options go, the Cubs could do worse.

Jose Valverde, 31, - After rejecting arbitration from the Astros, Valverde is probably looking for a big payday in 2010.  And he just might deserve it -- he's struck out 470 in 386.0 career innings, and saved 167 to only 27 blown (that's a very respectable 86% conversion ratio).  If the Cubs wanted to forgo the Marmol experiment, Valverde would be the player to target.

Middle Infielders
None available really reek of hero to me.  Of the guys who the Cubs might grab, a few names are familiar - and were smack-talked by me a year ago - like Orlando Hudson, who's living off of his reputation of defensive goodliness.  Despite his slightly-above-average year, though, I wouldn't call Hudson a viable option.  Probably the only half-decent second base option is the following:

Felipe Lopez, 29, - He's on the right side of 30 (well, until May 12th), he hits doubles, gets on base a lot, and posted an OPS last year of .810.  Then again, his next team will be his 7th in 9 seasons.  He isn't a game-breaking offensive player, nor is he a Gold Glove caliber infielder (but his defense is indeed better than Hudson's, according to Fangraphs), but he's probably a better option than Fonteblow or Jeff Baker. 

Miguel Tejada, 35, - Probably too old, and no longer an offensive force since they hid his needle on him, Tejada would still be a better bat at short than Ryan Theriot at shortstop.  Of course, the problem would be that if the Cubs grabbed Miguel, then they wouldn't have a "leadoff" hitter anymore ... not that Theriot is really a great leadoff hitter, either.  Assuming he'd take a ridiculous pay-cut, and pretending the Cubs have money to play with, and ignoring that he's a defensive miscarriage of justice, then Tejada might just be an option to consider.

-- Side bar --

Something I really enjoy about the hypocrisy of Cub fans who think they know everything is that they will consistently argue the value of Kosuke Fukudome (whose defense apparently makes up for his inability to regularly hit tossed balls) while criticizing Ryan Theriot, whose defense is apparently atrocious.  Yet, in 2009, Fukudome had an UZR/150 rating in center field of -18.1, while Theriot's was 8.3 at shortstop, making him one of the 10 best defensive shortstops in all of baseball in 2009.  I don't care that they overvalue Fukudome -- although I don't understand why -- nor do I care that they constantly harp for Theriot to be moved to second base, but the kind of thinking where a person conveniently cites a statistic to back up an opinion in one case, while conveniently ignoring a statistic to back up an opinion in another case is (pardon my French) really fucking stupid.  Even better, though, these stat-loving Cubtards have chosen to ignore the numbers in both cases this time to make their point.  This is totally typical of the cynical, smart-ass, idiotic Cub fans who spend their time on the internets wasting their time and yours.  But I digress.

-- end side bar --

Conclusions
Looking closely at the pieces available in contrast with the needs of the Cubs, it seems pretty evident to me that the only hope the team has is for an HGH dealer to set-up shop outside the ballpark in April.  The pieces do not fit the puzzle.  Soriano is probably going to bounce back a little bit this year, but not to the point of justifying his contract.  Zambrano is an episode away from being committed, and the once-turgid Cubs offense appears increasingly flaccid. 

Hendry will not be able to dramatically improve the team through free agency.  Maybe he'll swing a trade, probably he won't, and the hopes of the team will depend upon rebound performances from guys like Soto and Zambrano and offensive outbursts from players like Ramirez, Soriano, and Fukudome. 

In other words, maybe I've been avoiding the act of looking closely at this team for a reason.  I don't like what I see.  Does anybody?

ESPN is reporting that the Cubs are close to signing hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo to a deal.  He will be replacing Von Joshua and Gerald Perry as the Cubs hitting coach. 

As smart, sophisticated, kick-ass Cub fans, we all have to realize how little this might mean.  Jaramillo has had a lot of success serving as the hitting coach for the Rangers (since 1994) and Astros (from 1990 to 1993), but the question is this: was he successful at turning guys like Bagwell, Biggio, Gonzalez, Rodriguez, Teixeria, and Young into super-stars, or was he fortunate to have those guys around to make him look good?  Let's not forget that Sammy Sosa became a stud when he started listening to Jeff Pentland, who would segue his success with Steroid Sammy into two jobs with hopeless, mediocre offenses in Kansas City and then Seattle.

One interesting thing to note was that, from stories early in the year, Milton Bradley reportedly missed his old hitting coach from the Rangers (Jaramillo) who he connected to back when he had his spectacular '08 season.  Does this mean there is even a small chance of reconciliation with Jim and Milton?  Probably not.  But we can look at Bradley's production in the '08 season as an example of how Jaramillo just might know what the hell he's doing.

Either way, before we remember that the Cubs '09 offense was swinging from crapville for most of the year, we should try not to forget that the '08 team -- which consisted of many of the same key players -- was a force of nature.  Therefore, regardless of Jamarillo's actual talent, and even regardless of Hendry's success at upgrading the team in the winter, I will be expecting some bounce-back. 

I still think that hitting coaches are important, despite how some Cub fans would argue that they do nothing to impact the multi-millionaires they coach.  Chances are that a hitting coach can't turn a bad hitter into a good one, but he might be able to take a good hitter with bad habits and get him focused and directed.  Besides, much like pitching there are mechanics to good hitting.  Jaramillo's direct impact on the team should stem from his ability to fix an errant batting stance and to close a swing with big holes in it.  We can't underestimate the value of that, much as we shouldn't oversell it, either.

Pending court and MLB ownership approval, the Chicago Cubs will soon belong to the Ricketts family, who spent 845 million for the privilege.  It's been a long  time in coming.

Back when the team's sale was first announced, many of us had hoped it would be a guy like Mark Cuban who would step up and buy the team.  Cuban is the sort who would put product before profit, and while he probably wouldn't go into the red to win he would almost certainly spend more than most.

Still, Tom Ricketts is a Cubs fan.  There's no doubt that he wants his new team to break the drought, although he's going to have a very, very long process ahead of him.  In the next few years he's going to have to deal with some big, untradeable contracts, a crumbling ballpark, and a fanbase that continues to grow more alienated.  Or he could just wait two years and sell the team again and probably make a cool 200 million dollar profit -- the downturned economy may have delayed the family's purchase of the team, but it also aided them in buying the Cubs at a relatively big discount.

Regardless of his plans, we're all still probably a little concerned about what Tom Ricketts will do next.  It seems doubtful that a guy who was barely able to scrounge up the money to buy the team will be able to grow -- or even maintain -- the third largest team payroll in baseball.

Hopefully his next move will be to answer those issues, to calm us in the face of concerns, and his public silence should soon be broken. 

Remember last October, when a 97-win Cubs team was swept out of the playoffs by Los Angeles? People wanted to blow up the team. They wanted to deal Derrek Lee, start Micah Hoffpauir at first, unload all the failures and under-performers, and -- the level-headed blog this is -- we suggested an exercise of caution. George Steinbrenner may disagree to some extent, but the actions and reactions of a strong organization is not to trade away the key components to a 97-win baseball team just because of an early playoff exit.

It's May 26th.  The Cubs are 21-22, 5 games out of first, looking lost.  People are freaking out.  Players are under-performing.  While cautious people like me are saying things like "steady, steady" and "relax, guy" I'd have to be living in Dumb-ass Canyon to not recognize how bad the Cubs are right now. 

Recently -- hell, a lot longer than that -- I've butted heads with cliff jumpers, ledge walkers, Cubbie Downers, and quitters.  But I think that even those who get riled up by my rhetoric would agree with the following statements:

1. The Cubs are a mess and need some work.
2. If the Cubs players actively quit on the team right now, we'd all be furious. 
3. If Jim Hendry started a fire sale right now it would be labeled "white flag" and he would be scorned for it.

So, if you would be disappointed with the team for quitting today, then you are a hypocrite if you also have quit already on this team.  There's no denying it, there's no rhetoric to counter that, it's a simple fact.  Since nobody wants to be called a hypocrite, then let's all agree that nobody in their right mind feels the season is lost on May 26th with the Cubs 5 games out of first place.  And I'm sure that we're all in our right minds here.  Therefore, let's work together to identify the team's weaknesses, needs, and flaws.

You must be wondering what it would take for me to give up on the Cubs.  After all, I have lovingly bashed, trashed, and something-else-that-ends-in-ashed everybody who's displayed the appearance of surrender.  I have two very simple Pre-September conditions for "giving up."

The team needs to be 10 games under .500 or 10 games out of a playoff spot.

Even then, we've seen evidence in the past of teams reaching those points and still making the post season, but the 2007 Cubs are an ideal example of why surrendering before the Cubs meet that criteria is just plain stoopid.  In '07, on June 2nd the Cubs were 22-31, 9 games under .500 and 6 games in the loss column behind the 31-25 Milwaukee Brewers.  Things looked hopeless, we were dejected and prepared to surrender ... and then they took off like a rocket ship.  Just wanted to remind you.

Jim Hendry has some problems on his hands, and he needs to start making some calls.  Let's outline the issues here...

Bullpen?  What bullpen?
With all due respect to Dave Patton, Aaron Heilman, Kevin Gregg, and especially Neal Cotts, you guys suck.  Fortunately, Hendry has options.  Why he hasn't tried any of those options is beyond me.

First, cut Neal Cotts.  The guy isn't a tin can, he's not a punching bag, he's a tin-can-shaped punching bag.  He is the destroyer of worlds.  He is not, however, a LOOGY.  Never has been, never will be.

Second, send away Dave Patton.  The experiment hasn't worked and this team isn't playing well enough to justify such an experiment regardless.

Third, turn Aaron Heilman into the long-reliever.  He should not be pitching in close games either way.  Fourth, demote Gregg to set-up, promote Marmol to close.

That gives the Cubs a bullpen of:
CL Marmol
SU Gregg
MR Guzman
MR Ascanio
LR Heilman

If the Cubs go with 6 men, I would probably convert Randy Wells to the bullpen at first chance (guy's a stud) and I would use Guzman as my LOOGY.  Lefties are batting .226 against him.  I've made this point before but I will make it again. 

Conventional baseball wisdom dictates the following scenario: Team A's lefty walks up to the plate, Team B calls on a lefty pitcher.  Team A responds by bringing in a righty batter.  And so-on.  If Guzman dominates lefty hitters -- as he does -- then it's a huge advantage for the Cubs to have him be their stealth LOOGY.  Managers trapped in the conventional way of thinking would trot out lefty batter after lefty batter to burn Guzman, failing to understand that Guzman is like ice against lefties.  He can't be burnt.

If the Cubs go with 7 men then I would promote one of the following to try out as a reliever: J.R. Mathes - he's a lefty with a 3.40 ERA in Iowa.  His strikeout numbers aren't good, but he'd be worth trying.  Greg Reinhard - he's a righty with a 2.22 ERA in Iowa.  He has tallied 36 strikeouts in 28.1 innings of work.  Jeff Stevens has a 1.74 ERA in 20.2 innings, although he's walking too many batters for my comfort. 

If and when all of those guys fail, Hendry needs to swing a trade.  Until then, he's got options. 

Offensive druthers
A month ago, people were lamenting the slow start of the Questionable Quartet.  In a scolding fashion I said "let's talk again at the end of May."  Well...

Derrek Lee - He's batting .248 on the season with 5 homers, 19 RBI, and a .730 OPS.  For whatever reason Lee is the poster child of the Cub player fans want gone.  Back on April 30th, Lee was batting .189 with 1 homer, 10 RBI, and an OPS of .537.  In May he's batting .333 with 4 homers, only 9 RBI, and an OPS 1.011.  Can we agree that while his neck problem is a concern he's not washed up just yet?

Milton Bradley - He was 1 for his first 23 at bats.  Since that time, he's missed games due to nagging injuries, a suspension, he's slammed umpires in the press (repeatedly) and he's getting on everybody's nerves.  Actually I totally understand him.  If you ever get a new job in which there are expectations, you will probably start out nervous and feeling terribly insecure.  To me, that's exactly how he's acting right now ... insecure.  But since his 1 for 23 start, he's batting .244 (not great, but not as ugly as it looks) and he's got 3 homeruns, 11 RBI, and an OPS of .719 in May.  He has a ways to go but he's better than he's looked.  I'm not worried, except for the injury concerns.

Geovany Soto - at the end of April he was batting .109 with an OPS of .398.  In the month of May he's batted .288 with an OPS of .755.  That's a big improvement.  Again, he could do better but if he bats .288 from now until October, then he'd finish the year with an AVG of .266.  Not heroic, but better than we've seen.  The only concern I have about Soto is his lack of power but I think he'll come around.

Mike Fontenot - For a while there, he looked like he was going to turn it around.  On May 3rd, he was batting .266 with 5 homeruns, 14 RBI, and an OPS of .853.  Since then he's been in a horrible slump and he looks like he should be starting perhaps in Iowa.  No excuses - Fontenot needs to wake up NOW or get out of the way for somebody who'll perform.  Hendry needs to start looking for a new second baseman.

The Bench
The biggest complaint I had against the Cubs earlier this year was their poorly constructed support players.  They were all outfield and no third base.  Then, Aramis Ramirez got hurt.  At the moment the bench consists of the following:

IF - Aaron Miles, Bobby Scales, Ryan Freel, Micah Hoffpauir
OF - Reed Johnson, Ryan Freel, Micah Hoffpauir
C - Three Finger Hill

I honestly don't have a big problem with any of these guys.  Miles is not a fire-starter, but he's not supposed to be.  Scales is a feel-good story who felt worse after an 0 for 10 drought.  Freel is probably better than his .158 AVG as a Cub, although he may not have time to show it.  And the Hoff looks like what he is... a backup with no real position and booming power. 

The problem is that with Ramirez hurt, Fontenot lagging, and Lee unreliable -- not to mention Bradley's bouts with insanity -- the Cubs probably could use another bat to hold them over.  They need a guy who can passably play third base until Ramirez gets back who can also beat the cover off the ball.  They need a guy who can swing over to first base and cover for Derrek Lee on those pesky days when he needs a neckbrace.  They need a guy who can swoop in and play right field for Milton Bradley when Don't Wake Daddy is having one of his "special moments."

They need Aubrey Huff.

Huff, who is in a contract year, is currently on pace to hit 25 homeruns and has an AVG of .267 and an OPS of .812.  He is not great defensively but fangraphs has me thinking that he's not a black hole either.

Huff can play first base, where his UZR is below average but not beyond forgiveness.  Huff can play third base, where his career UZR is terrible but was actually in the plus in 2008 and will probably be acceptable as a short-term solution.  Huff can also play right field, although he hasn't since 2006, where he'd probably as servicable if he threw his glove at the ball as he would be if he tried to catch it.  Still, he's another option.

A Recap
So, what do the Cubs need to do to fix their ship?  Simple steps:
1. purge themselves of their bullpen problems, shuffle around those that remain, and try out a handful of in-house solutions
2. Trade for Aubrey Huff
3. Maybe re-shuffle the lineup a bit since it's obviously not working just now.
4. Wait.
5. Win.

With all due respect to the nay-sayers, I swear to you that this team isn't as bad as they look.  There is no way they play as poorly as they have been for the rest of the year.  It's impossible.  Maybe they'll figure it out on their own, but a few kick-start moves wouldn't hurt either.  That said, whether Hendry trades for another bat or not, the bullpen needs fixing.  NOW.

And once that happens, maybe -- just maybe -- the Cubs will start to win again.  Or maybe they'll lose every game the rest of this season.  Either way.

The Cubs did the unthinkable today -- they cut Chad Gaudin. 

It's actually not that surprising, and is only unthinkable in the sense that a year ago he was the "pitcher insurance" the team needed to take on Rich Harden.  Since then he's gone on to become most notable for his facial hair, which is not what you want to be known for if you're a Major League pitcher.  (Instead, you might want to be recognized for  your amazing ability at getting players out.) 

In cutting Gaudin, the Cubs have freed up room on their roster for Angel Guzman (who's pitched poorly, but Gaudin was just that bad) and Dave Patton (who was the Rule 5 pick and before this Spring had never tossed fastballs above A ball).  

It kind of goes back to what I said in a post not too long ago.  Youth can only get you so far.  Gaudin is young enough to bounce back, but he wasn't talented enough to bounce back with the Cubs. 

Not too long ago somebody requested that we do a Player Preview for Patton.  Since he's team-bound, we'll be sure to provide you with one tomorrow ... which is opening day. 

You have to love baseball fans - and Cub fans are no exception.  I think that if Hank Aaron announced tomorrow a desire to play for the Cubs, there would be fans out there who'd get excited and start talking about the possibility.  It's just our nature.  We like our players who have big names, be they 30 or 40, should they play a position of need or one of excess.  And believe me -- the Cubs do not need Curt Schilling.

This isn't 1999, or 2002, or even 2006.  The Cubs aren't a poorly assembled baseball team.  Right now there are three extremely capable, undeniably qualified pitchers competing for the 5th spot in the rotation.  One is a 1st round draft pick, one is a 25-year-old grizzly man with starting credibility, and the other is a lefty who's done everything the team has asked of him - and he's done it well. 

But suddenly, a 42-year-old guy who hasn't pitched since 2007 rolls around, saying he's "20% committed to playing in 2009" - on March 1st! - and he lists the Cubs as one of two potential destinations, and next thing you know Cub fans are beside themselves.  After all, this guy has 216 career wins.  And a bloody sock!  And multiple World Championship rings!  Wowee!

Hey, do you know who else is available?  There's this guy with 10 World Series wins and a World Series ERA of 2.71.  He's got multiple rings and he's currently without a team.  Granted, he hasn't played in a while and he's pretty old, but Whitey Ford has done it before, right?  Surely he could do it again!  Of course I'm being sarcastic, but Curt Schilling honestly isn't much better at this point.

But hey - if he wants to "consider it," I'd offer him this kind of deal: I'd let him train in the Arizona facilities into the season.  I'd let him work his way back with the intent that he might be ready come late May or early June.  And if June rolls around and the Cubs are doing fine - and all evidence points to this happening - then I'd release him and let him sign on with some other team elsewhere.  But if June rolls around and the Cubs are battling injuries, or if one of their five starters is just not cutting it, then I'd work something out to allow Schilling to pitch.  But the only way he makes any sense is if there are no obligations and no expectations.  The guy is 42 years old, coming off an arm injury that he may or may not have kept hidden when signing his last contract, and he's a bit of a dick.  Just because we also know his name does not mean we should want him to pitch in Chicago.

A few years back, like a big idiot I proclaimed that the Cubs had acquired the second-best shortstop of the organization's history and nothing but good times and sunshine awaited us.  Then the team imploded in September - completely missing the playoffs in the process - and, the following year, Nomar Garciaparra's groin tried to make a runner and left him incapacitated for the bulk of the '05 season.

Since Nomar left the Cubs, he's gone on to do ... eh, not a whole lot.  What once looked like a Hall of Fame career quickly nose-dived into mediocrity, and at the age of 35 Nomar became a backup in the Dodgers clubhouse last year.

Now with just a few weeks to go before the hitters report to Spring Training, the Cubs remain deficient of a backup shortstop and Nomar remains without a job.  Sounds to me like it's a match made in heaven.  Garciaparra can be the go-to guy to spell Lee, Ramirez, and Theriot and become the team's top RH option off the bench.

The questions in this scenario are numerous, though.  Would he take a backup role?  Would he be capable of pinch hitting?  Would he stay healthy even as a backup?

I obviously don't know the answer to any of those questions, but I'll acknowledge that Rich Aurilia wouldn't be a bad alternative option.  He's still hitting the ball well at his late age and he's a career .278 batter as a pinch hitter.  Thing is, I have a feeling that Aurilia is still holding out hopes to start next year while Nomar is on his last leg as a professional.  It's just a thought, anyway, but I am the guy who used to think Nomar was The Next Ernie, and we all know how that bloody disaster turned out.

Update: Apparently Andy Dolan had the same idea back on the 2nd of Feb.  In his own words, "I was just trying to throw Kurt Evans off the scent so he wouldn’t steal this as a blog entry four days later. It didn’t work."

Except I haven't been reading Desipio - or any blog - in a while, so this one can be filed under coincidence ... unless you're paranoid.  A note to Andy: if I'm going to steal ideas from you, I'll at least make sure that they're good ones.  Nomar to the Cubs would be fun, but not necessarily sensible.