Today's re-grabbers - Jason Frasor and Kiko Calero

The case for additional bullpen help: starting from the top: Our closer, Mr. Marmol, is capable of paralyzing hitters.  The problem is, it could be temporary paralysis due to slider, or permanent paralysis due to fastball in temple.  Our set up man, Mr. Guzman, is fragile, currently injured, and relatively stupid.  Our lefties, Mr. Marshall and Mr. Grabow, aren't really anything special, outside of being lefties.  Every one else I can name has less than one year experience in the majors.

The case for Mr. Calero: he may not pass a physical on his shoulder.  However, he has a superior ERA, strikeout/walk ratio, and every other relief indicator the last two plus seasons.  Training camps have started, and this man, who finished last year with an ERA under 2, is still on the outside looking in.  In a way, it appears this guy is a throwback to a simpler time.  His shoulder hurts, dammit, but he still takes the ball and pitches well.  Before the Age of Scrutiny, someone would just sign the guy to a contract and let him pitch.

Yes, this is a franchise who has been burned lately by lame pitchers.  It appears though that we are not the only team to suffer this misfortune.  Mr. Calero seemed to think that his past two years entitled him to a similar two-year commitment by his new team, for mucho dolores.  But, he has overestimated his worth.  At this point, he is likely to accept a decent one-year deal.  His new team will have to pay a few million dollars for one year, for a man whose arm may or may not fall off his shoulder.  But when you consider we are paying Silva the Hutt 14 million dollars American for the next two years, is what Calero wants really that big of a deal?

The case for Mr. Frasor: Jason Frasor has performed in, to the casual fan, anonymity for 5+ years in Toronto, and performed well, if not spectacularly.  This is his 'contract year', and he would probably command a lot of money in the open market for his somewhat above average performance.  Toronto does not appear to be willing anymore to overpay for relievers.

Mr. Frasor is a local boy who would look good in pinstripes.  But I must admit, my interest in him isn't so much based on his own prowess, as it is based on the fact that Frasor would have to be acquired in trade, and that trade could and should include one of our young relievers, and one of my favorite players, Micah (first you get the moneey, then you get the) Hoffpauir.  The Hoff really doesn't fit for us anymore, now that we have Nady, apparently keeping Fontenot (??), and most likely keeping either Chad Tracy and/or Cowboy Millar.  (My money is on Millar, since he might be the only person on the team who may have seen Uncle Lou actually play, and those two can sit around in their tightie whities and reminisce about the old days).  Meanwhile, for some reason, the Hoff seems like a Blue Jay to me, he always did.  He may thrive there.

Prognosis: you will see a trade before you see Hendry roll dice on Calero.  Hopefully that trade includes the Hoff and does not include too many real prospects.

I could make this short-n-sweet: the Hoff - not as bad with the glove as we feared, nowhere near as good with the stick as we hoped.

Ah, but that ain't fun, is it?  And, since it appears that Micah Hoffpauir actually seems to have a place in the Cubs 2010 plans, let's look at what we might expect.

He raked like a man in Iowa for about 3 years - the times I saw him there, I felt sorry for him.  He seemed to be majors-ready, but with Derrek Lee in his way at first base, there was no real need for him.  And yes, I understand that those same three years, Lee didn't do very much for us.  Lee first broke his wrist, then had the misfortune of having his daughter come down with a degenerative eye disease, but his wrist healed and there seemed to be progress of a sort concerning his daughter's disease, so we all waited for him to bounce back to something close to his 2005 breakout year, and waited.

In the meantime, the Hoff was right there, and many of us wondered out loud, with various levels of seriousness, if perhaps he shouldn't take Lee's place on the team.  As it turns out, there was a few reasons why not.  Firstly, Lee's main problem wasn't his wrist or his family - it was his neck.  I would assume the Cubs knew that, although we did not.  Second, Lee has a huge contract, and he had no trade value.  Third, as it has been reported here often, Lee is as close to a clubhouse leader as we have.

Fourth, and most importantly, the team wisely did not make a rash decision based on the Hoff's sizzling late season cameo in 2008.  While the man does have the smooth swinging motion that so many left-handed sluggers seem to have, he also has big holes in that swing.  The league adjusted to him this year, and from May to July, he simply sucked.  Whereas Lee bent the league over in 2009, and those of us tinkerers who wanted to replace him with the Hoff looked pretty damn stupid.

But at the end of the year, the Hoff seemed to make the re-adjustment he needed to make to stay at this level.  He was sent back down to Iowa, and when he came back in September, he finished up with a .259/.359/.444.  Not exactly Pujols numbers, or even Lee numbers, but definitely trending upward.

This may be the reason why Hendry decided to keep him and trade Jake Fox.  This could turn out to be a mistake - for some reason, I keep seeing sine and cosine functions.  The math geeks out there know what I am saying right now, but for the rest of you: Micah got his first big taste in 2008, started his 2009 in Chicago, hit well in early, then struggled mightily as the league adjusted to him,  then he re-adjusted and his trend curve rose again.  Fox is simply one "phase" behind on the curve.  He got his first big taste when he came up in May, hit well for two months, but finished poorly when the league adjusted to him.  I would figure that Fox will re-adjust himself and bounce back strong in 2010, for Oakland.

Some say you don't need two backup first basemen - Kenny Williams isn't one of them, but some say it.  And yes, The Hoff is left-handed, so although Fox may in fact have a somewhat higher ceiling (my guess is that he will end up with .030 more SLG with a similar OBP than Hoffpauir in the long run), the braintrust traded him and kept Hoffpauir.   I'm not sure we couldn't use both men as pinch hitters, occasional fill-ins at first base and the corner OF positions?  That would mean we wouldn't have room for that 7th infielder (Fontenot?) or that 5th outfielder (Johnson?)  Big whoop.

I see why they kept the Hoff - deep down, Sweet Lou still believes he is short on left-handed hitting.  So the Hoff Power remains on the North Side.  Maybe he takes that next step this year, maybe gets 250 PA, hits .275/.360/.490, and perhaps takes Lee's place in 2011, when Lee's contract expires?  That's the ceiling.  Maybe he ends up back in Des Moines in June?  Let's hope not.

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NO, NO, NO, no, no!!  You're all doing it all wrong!!!

So, how are you all enjoying your Memorial Day weekend so far?  (For Canucks such as Kurt, the fourth weekend in May here in America is set aside for...)  Ok, Kurt is actually here somewhere in the lower 48, and of course he grew up in New York, and that's probably the last attempt at humor from me for the rest of this post, because this shit just ain't working.  I came out here after the first 20 games, I think we were 11-9, and I pointed out that Geo Soto was fat and sassy, that Milton Bradley completely had his head stuck up his ass, and that Derrek Lee's best days are absolutely behind him, and you all flamed me up one side and down the other, leaving me with a nice charred crust with very little pink in the middle, because by gawd, it's only TWENTY games, give guys a chance, for cripes sake!!

Now, it's forty games in, we're 21-19, which means we've played .500 ball since that last post.  I did what you said, I gave them a chance to work things out, and what's happened since? 

• Geo Soto still ain't hit dick
• Milton Bradley is still pressing
• Derrek Lee is not only still struggling, but he's now doing it in the cleanup spot
• and, now, we've exposed Mike Fontenot for what HE is, useful as a backup, but not capable of hitting on an everyday basis
• and, as an added bonus, Ryan Theriot has gotten away from what HE does best (go to right field) and he's swinging for the fences, with the predictable result of a plummeting batting average, on-base percentage, and overall usefulness
• and, of course, Aramis Ramirez' shoulder is still fusing itself back into one piece
• and, we now have not one, but two useless utility men burning at-bats and butchering plays in the field.  Sometimes, the Orioles aren't stupid, and I know pretty much the Cardinals aren't.

  But what worries me the most is looking at Lou Piniella night after night.  There is a noticeable cognitive difference in him from 2007 to today.  His job is stressful - particularly when he has come so close twice, and have it all slip away so suddenly and completely.  This job turns people.  When Dusty Baker hit town, he was all California Cool.  By his last year, he spoke and acted like someone was spiking him in the groin.  When Don Baylor hit town, he was all New Age Enthusiasm.  By his last year, he spoke and acted like someone was spiking him in the groin.  When Jim Riggleman hit town, he acted like the slimy horndog he was.  By his last year, he spoke and acted like someone was spiking him in the groin, which was probably somewhat based in reality, considering his typical nighttime activities.  (When he and Mark Grace left town, it left a lot of dental hygenists and flight attendants in their mid-30s unfulfilled)

  Now, Lou don't talk like he's in pain, but I have talked to people trained in diagnosing dementia, and they notice how he can't seem to put a coherent sentence together when he is asked a question.  He is probably the most confused man in Chicago presently, and not only does that explain why Neal Cotts still has a job, it doesn't bode well for the immediate future of the Cubs.  I have backed this man since day one, but I can no longer. 

  Hendry ain't gonna fire him, no way.  But I don't believe Lou has an answer for 2009, and in the meantime, we are wasting some decent-to-good starting pitching.   Man, I still think getting Jake Peavy would send a message, but Adrian Gonzalez would look a HELL of a lot better in pinstripes.  Too bad he ain't available...

Quick Links:

• 2008 Season Recap: Micah Hoffpauir
• Tuesday Morning Hoffsplooge
• The Hoff is a Lock

Did you know that if you ignore all the at bats in which Micah Hoffpauir made an out last year, he's a 1.000 hitter at the Major League level? For that reason alone, he should get consideration to start first base.

No, seriously, that's the argument some bloggers are making. If you ignore his 0-for games this spring, then Hoffpauir is considerably outperforming the slow-starting Derrek Lee, and therefore should be the starting first baseman on opening day.

Me, I have a better idea. Micah Hoffpauir should be used as a pinch-hitting backup outfielder and first baseman. He could - and should! - give the Cubs an immensely valuable left-handed bat from the bench. He may - and likely will be! - the bench presence that Daryle Ward was supposed to be last year.

In other words, Micah Hoffpauir as a backup will be one of the most valuable Cubs on the 2009 team. But as a starter, sorry, I have doubts that he'd be able to outperform Derrek Lee.

So let's look at The Hoff. He's really quite the impressive story. After 7 years in the Cubs minor league system, most of which were unimpressive, Hoffpauir tore the cover off the ball in 2008. In 290 minor league at bats, he batted a ridiculous .362 with 25 homers and 100 RBI. His OPS was an astonishing 1.145. He was then promoted to the big leagues for the first time at the age of 28, and he proceeded to capture the imagination and hope of Cub fans everywhere.

Since his success last year, The Hoff has seen a swelling of fan support. People wanted to trade Derrek Lee so Hoff could start first base. They wanted him to get a shot at starting in right field before Milton Bradley signed. Somebody even suggested that the Cubs release Lee outright - thereby eating a hefty salary - and let Hoff start. All of this brings us back full circle to the jabrone Cubs blogger who wants us to ignore certain stats in order to conveniently prove his ridiculous point.

I think that we should be happy for Hoffpauir. He's quite the story. And if he can play well in a minor role in '09, his story will be an even better one.  But I remain unconvinced that Lee is finished as an All Star first baseman, much as I remain doubtful that Hoffpauir could be an effective starter at the Major League level.

But for those of you in the Micah Hoffpauir fan club, I'll throw you a bone. If, on June 1st, Derrek Lee is struggling and Micah Hoffpauir is killing major league hitting, then Lou Piniella should revisit his options. Until then, I hope we can be happy for an already impressive success story -- the elevation of Micah Hoffpauir from minor league obscurity to becoming the top bench player on the best team in the National League.

Major league leader in Spring Training total bases: Mike Fontenot: 32

Major league leader in Spring Training RBI (tie): Micah Hoffpauir: 13

Cubs leaders in batting average (tie): Carlos Zambrano&Ryan Dempster: 1.000

In regards to Kyle's review of Alf Soriano - c'mon, kids.  We can all agree that Hoppy is being PAID to be a 40/40 guy, and we can all HOPE he will be a 40/40 guy, and we can see that he APPEARS to be in decent shape, perhaps the best he has been as a Cub.  But that doesn't mean he WILL be a 40/40 guy.  I mean, I can squint my eyes reeeeeal tightly closed and cross my fingers and hope and pray and chant incantations, and I can pray not only that Soriano will go 40/40 but also for Lee to regain his 2005 form, and for Fukudome to be the guy we paid for coming out of Japan, and for Zambrano to win 20 with 2 no-hitters.

Don't mean it's gonna happen, and in fact, you could go to Vegas and get pretty long odds on ALL of those.

Hopefully Kurt isn't sitting up there in Canadia, developing a complex because nobody else wrote this weekend.  Let me fill you in a tad on my life - there isn't a computer in my house that I can call "my own", and the only one I know the password to has some funky browser configured in some funky way that does not allow me to post to GROTA.  I tried several times to get my Stanton preview in, but hey, you didn't miss much.  I can summarize it in two words: burnt. toast.  Kurt pretty much covered it anyway.  The bullpen is definitely a fluid situation right now, with Gaudin and Vizcaino stinking up the joint, and Kevin Hart actually putting a good one into the books for once - Sweet Lou will need every last fake game to build his pen.

But the good news is: The Hoff is a Lock!  Both papers are reporting that our favorite Micah has hit his way on the roster, and Sweet Louie ain't so worried about carrying a "specific 3B backup" anymore.  So it appears that Johnson and Gathright and Hoffpauir are coming north.  I wonder about the wisdom of this - we all know that Johnson proved himself to be quite a ballplayer last year, and we all can see the potential in a lightning quick stud who can handle the bat a little.  It just seems to me both guys fill the same role, and compounded with the over $30 million we are paying Fukie, who also fills roughly the same role, Lou's vaunted versatility takes a hit.  He's deep in go-get-it outfielders, but thin in infielders. 

I guess he figures good glove infielders are a dime a dozen, and he can dip his fish net into the farm system pool and snag a couple by accident.  Guys like Johnson and Gathright aren't as plentiful, I guess.  If Fontentot, Theriot, or Milesinot hurt themselves, help is just a bus trip away.

I had heard rumors today that the Cubs had released Vizcaino, but I can find no corraboration out on the webs.  I'll keep you posted.

So far this spring, Micah Hoffpauir is doing everything possible to make Lou Piniella's job difficult.  He's 7 for 19 (.368) with 2 homers and 8 RBI in 5 games played.  Ironically, I can't help but think of the entirely forgettable Major League 2, starring Charlie Sheen, in which a rejuvenated Willie Mays Hayes comes to camp a "power hitter."  Early on into the Spring he crushes some homeruns to which his skipper Lou Brown says "sure, but that pitcher's going to be stocking shelves next month."

Much as they were last September when he went on his run, Cub fans are talking about him like he could be the next offensive force, a 30 homerun hitting monster who deserves his chance to play in the bigs.  But the skeptic in me keeps looking at a few other factors, like his age - he'll be 29 by opening day - and his slow rise in Iowa - he took three years to flat out dominate the way he did last season.  Both of those factors paint The Hoff as a flash-in-the-pan.

Yet there he his, leading the Cubs early in hits, homers, and RBI.  It's hard to deny that he's well on his way toward earning a spot on the team, and that would be fine with me.  I certainly can't contest that he'd be any worse than Daryle Ward was last year; in fact he's bound to be better.  I wouldn't argue that he'll ever be a good defensive outfielder, but if his primary use is as a pinch hitter/spot starter/occassional late-inning substitute/speller for Derrek Lee, then why the heck not? 

I just ask that you keep your skepticism glasses on for a little while longer - assuming you were wearing some to begin with.  It's early in Spring, where pitchers more often than not throw a lot of fastballs.  Let's see where The Hoff winds up once the breaking pitches come into play, and don't be surprised if some points are shaved off his batting average between now and April 6th. 

Admittedly, I've been extremely cautious about Hoffpauir, but I'm really hoping to be wrong.  Having a bat of his apparent caliber on the team would be an outstanding addition to an already strong squad.  However the keyword in that last sentence is - for now - "apparent."  Let's not forget that, lest we get our hopes up over nothing.

Hello everybody. I wanted to get a chance to introduce myself to a few of you, while provided some news updates on the Cubs.

Like Kurt said, I've been blogging since 2003 at the Yarbage Cub Review, which I started for two reasons:

1. I wanted an outlet to talk about the Cubs, which was most important. Back in the day, Scott Lange of the Northside Lounge, Ruz of The Cub Reporter and a few others dominated the scene. I just wanted to share the opinion of one Cubs' fan from afar.

2. The second reason was much more selfish. I needed some kind of hook to get a job, and a blog about the Cubs was the trick. I wrote quite a bit in the first vew years, but as soon as I got a job covering High School sports in Arkansas it became harder to keep going. Writing full-time and keeping a blog going are two things that don't go together, unless you are blogging about the things you cover.

Now that that is out of the way, it is time to look at some stories making news. Kurt asked me to do a news round up from time-to-time, and I will try to fill that void while writing other articles.

The Trib, Suntimes and Daily Herald all say the Cubs got off to good start. The hero was Micah Hoffpauir, who hit a Grand Slam. I know it's early, but I'll take a win.

The Gordon Wittenmyer says that Jeff Samardzija's role isn't determined quite yet. Really? I know he is just trying to fill up copy, something I did back in the day, but of course Samardzija's role isn't settled. My guess is he is heading to Iowa, and will soon take Rich Harden's spot after another shoulder problem.

That's it for now, but as the news cyle starts up, I will be back to give my comments about each of them. Think of me as the GROTA Ombudsman.

Like the man once said, a good pinch hitter is hard to find.  (I'm not sure who "the man" was, but rarely has somebody ever been so right.)

Pinch hitting is weird.  I realize how ridiculous it seems to write that, but baseball is big, and random, and in isolation the biggest turd can look like solid gold and the greatest player can look like Vance Law.  I'm rambling now, but I would bet that there have been more than a few players throughout the course of baseball history who had the talent, ability, and mentality to be Hall of Famers, but never got the chance because they started their careers 11 for 90, got demoted, and wound up teaching gym somewhere in Iowa.

So, if 90 at bats are too small of a sample size to determine whether or not a player "belongs," then what's fair?  150 at bats?  250?  For a pinch hitter, 150-250 at bats over the course of the season might be all the chances he gets, and if he goes cold for two months then you can bet that his final line will look worse than Lindsey Lohan after an all night coke binge*.

(*allegedly.)

Here, I'll give you some examples of good pinch hitters gone bad.  Lenny Harris.  A Dusty Disciple, Lenny came to Chicago in 2003 with a pinch-hitting pedigree.  In 2002, Harris batted .305 in 197 at bats for Milwaukee, with 8 doubles, 2 triples, 3 homers, and a .766 OPS.  Then, he came to Chicago, only to realize after getting half way there that he'd left his bat back home, but it was too late to go and get it.  In 131 at bats for Chicago in '03, Harris batted an anemic .183, with just 3 doubles, 1 homer, and an OPS of .484.  The Cubs then cut the cord, and he signed on with the soon-to-be World Champion Fish - who he batted .286 for, prompting them to renew his contract, and when he retired in 2005, he left a .314 hitter in 70 at bats that year.

All of that brings us to the actual subjects of this article.  Micah "The Hoff" Hoffpauir, and Daryle "Badonkadonk" Ward.  Both men can play first base, and when necessity calls, they are also allegedly capable of chugging across the thinly cut outfield grass in order to catch flyballs.  In other words, they are defensively shizzzz-itty. Therefore, their value to the Cubs comes from their batting skills.

In 2007, Ward carried a mean club.  In 110 at bats, the man batted .327 with an OPS of .963.  He hit 13 doubles, 3 homers, and drove in 19 RBI.  Then, in 2008, he ... well, he didn't.  His batting average plummeted to .216 in 102 at bats.  His OPS dropped to .721.  He hit 7 doubles, but 4 homers, and drove in 17 RBI.

Actually, Ward's numbers this past season are odd in that way.  In 8 fewer at bats, he hit 1 more homer and drove in only 2 fewer RBI, but he was a total failure as a pinch hitter.  But are 102 at bats enough to really tell the story?  How will he do next season if he gets 102 at bats elsewhere?

It's conceivable that Ward will succeed for another city in 2009, in fact I think it's likely.  But his decreased ability to reach base was a problem in 2008, and for that reason the Cubs turned to Micah Hoffpauir.

Micah Hoffpauir

Talk about your success stories.  A year ago, The Hoff probably spent his winters working a second job while hoping to save up enough money to buy an awfully nice ring for Sarah May, his finacee with a heart of gold (who was also a hooker).  Then, Hoffpauir puts up Epic Numbers at Iowa, and at the age of 28 gets the call to the show for the first time ever.

In 72 at bats - 29 fewer than Ward - Hoff got 3 more hits than Ward, he hit 1 more double, and he scored 6 more runs.  In fact, Hoffpauir did so well in his limited stint at the Major League Level - .342 AVG, 2 HR, 8 RBI, .934 OPS - that fans actually began to clamor for the Cubs to find a way to deal Derrek Lee so his clear offensive superior (that's Hoffpauir, in case you're confused) could have a crack at first base for the Cubs.

Believe it or not, if it's conceivable that Ward could have a great 2009, then it's also conceivable - if not more likely - that Hoffpauir could wake up to reality and realize that he's a life-long journeyman first baseman who needed multiple tries to figure out AAA pitching.

That said, The Hoff was a welcome surprise in 2008, he's certainly earned the chance to be the Cubs pinch hit specialist for next season, but if I was a betting man, I'd lay odds against him making the team out of Spring Training.

Like I said.  A good pinch hitter is hard to find, and part of the problem is that in any given year, a great pinch hitter could put up terrible numbers, and a terrible player could pinch hit his ass off.  I'm not asserting that this was the case with Ward and Hoffpauir in 2008, but let's be honest - it's possible.  Just keep that in mind before you feverishly fantasize about your next Derrek Lee trade.

Described as an annual "farm tour", Cubs GM Jim Hendry attended the I-Cubs win last night over New Orleans.  If I were a talented player, perhaps a player who has already seen major league action this year, and currently holds a major league batting average over .370, I would be heartened to know that the Big Boss is here to see me rake.

Daryle Ward has a .100 batting average as a pinch hitter.  He cannot run nor play the field.  If he manages to get on base, we almost always have to employ yet another bench player to run for him.  Last night he got a sac fly to drive in a run, and it seemed like a major victory for him.  Like the scene in "Little Big League", when Billy Hayward's favorite player broke a 0-for-21 slump with a seeing-eye squibber to right...it's time to put the Fat Kangaroo out of his misery.

Jimmy, bring home more than just some funnel cakes and beef jerky from your trip.  Bring us some Micah Hofpauir, and some bullpen help while you're at it.  I'm stickin' the fork in Bob Howry.  He's done.