Diamondbacks
Game Recap: Diamondbacks 5, Cubs 2 - You Thought We Forgot Edition
Aha! Just when you thought we'd shirked our duties in the last game of the season, here finally is the belated Game Recap. Just look the other way and forget that Yarbage missed the GameCast.
So. Ryan Dempster became the only Cub to pitch 200 innings in his final outing of the season -- he didn't toss all 200 in one go, though, but lasted 5 innings -- while striking out 10. Dempster finishes the first of four seasons with 11 wins, 9 losses, and a 3.65 ERA. For comparison's sake, the five pitchers above Dempster in ERA and four of the five pitchers below him all have more wins, which is my way of saying that on a team with a more reliable offense, he wins 15 all day long. I still think that by the time year four rolls around, Dempster's going to have Cub fans contemplating suicide, but that's a ways away.
But Ryan didn't have his best stuff -- despite 10 strikeouts -- and so the Cubs lost to Arizona, dropping to 83 wins to finish the season.
Way back in March, I was convinced that they'd win about 17 more than they did. I didn't know that Chicago's offense would be non-existent, that their pitching would be erratic and often-injured, and that their manager would be clueless to fix the problems. I thought that they would walk an easy path into the playoffs, where they would be unbeatable.
I thought a lot of things. In case you haven't noticed yet, I'm actually kind of stupid.
Anyway, I'm over this "wait 'til next year" crap. It grates me to see it, to hear it, to think it. So instead, I'll say this: if you have daddy issues, resulting in a chip on your shoulder the size of Omaha, and if you are inclined to get confrontational with coaches, umpires, and fans, then you probably shouldn't play in Chicago. Just a heads up for the future.
Oh, and White Sox suck.
Game Recap: Cubs 5, Diamondbacks 0 -- Randy Wells rides again
Maybe knowing that he was down to the last hundred yards of the marathon, Randy Wells decided it was okay to give it all he had left. Whatever the reason, Wells pitched 7 solid innings of 3-hit, 1-walk, 10-strikeout baseball to punctuate the end of his season. Very fittingly, Jason Stark wrote an article today in which he presumptively awarded the NL Rookie of the Year trophy to Chris Coghlan. Runners up included J.A. Happ, Tommy Hanson, Garrett Jones, Andrew McCutchen, and Casey McGehee. Wells didn't even receive an honorary mention.
For the record, his worn-down showing in September definitely would have played against him anyway, but no matter what the outcome I doubt Wells will get serious contention from the voters. But he finishes the season with a 12-10 record, a 3.05 ERA, and with 46 walks to 104 strikeouts. His only pitching rival, J.A. Happ, who I promise you will blow Wells away in the voting, is 12-4, with a 2.85 ERA, and with 55 walks to 118 strikeouts. Then again, Happ's younger.
Anyway, on top of Wells and his last gasping breath of a pitching performance, the Cubs managed 8 hits and 5 walks -- which they parlayed into 5 runs. Geo Soto is desperately trying to get his AVG over .220 -- he went 2 for 2 with 2 walks and 2 RBI (if only he'd raised his average to .222 today). I think it's safe to say, on this late date, that Soto proved without a doubt to be the lost cause Rob said he was way back in May ... but next season is a new story.
Speaking of next season, it can't get here soon enough. But tomorrow is the last of this year. We'll have the preview and recap and, mercifully, it'll be over.
Gamecast: October 3rd vs. Diamondbacks
Daniel Cabrera (0-5, 6.07 ERA) vs. Randy Wells (11-10, 3.18 ERA)
Story Lines
Randy Wells' rotation spot for next season is pretty secure, I would guess, but I'm sure he would like to end the year with a better than .500 record.
The Cubs, by the looks of it, looked terrible yesterday. Thank goodness, I didn't see anything.
Who's Hot
The Twins - Don't look now, but they are just 1 game back of the Tigers.
Who's Not
GMs - The Blue Jays and the Padres both made changes. Maybe the Cubs can get Doc H from the Jays?
Conclusions
Just two games left.
Game Recap: Diamondbacks 12, Cubs 3 - Blow Out
In a game of stunning mediocrity and epic defeat, the Cubs were handed their 77nd loss of the season yesterday against an Arizona team that sucks golf balls through garden hoses. Still, in a series that matters none, these things are bound to happen.
The Cubs pitcher was Tom Gorzelanny, who is in rotation audition mode until next April. He didn't do much to help his cause, serving up 7 runs in 3 innings of work, but nobody's going to remember how badly he got his ass kicked once March rolls around.
He was relieved by a team of pitchers who all proceeded to bumble their way through the game, except for Berg and Grabow who both only allowed hits but held the 'backs at bay.
Offensively, the most impressive thing to happen was that Kosuke Fukudome walked 3 times. That's how you can tell that it was a meh-diocre day.
Today's game is an early one, for which I am sure we are all excited to watch. Right? Amiright?
Series Preview: Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Overview
Well it’s finally here. The end of the season.
As tough as this season as been on some of us, I’m personally not looking forward to the winter. Do I want to see the Cubs win? Of course, but baseball is baseball. It’s a great game that people all across the country can enjoy the same way. The weather is hot, the beers are cold, and the game is there for us almost everyday from April through September. I am going to miss it.
At the expense of getting sappy, it is time for this dogshitary of a season to end. We might not be able to watch baseball until the snow melts, but there will be plenty to talk about over the coming months.
But first, we have the D-Backs…
The Matchups
October 2nd - Billy Buckner vs. Tom Gorzelanny
Tommy GoGo will be on the team Opening Day next year, but it’s just a matter of determining his role at this point. I’d say No. 5 starting spot is his job to lose at this point.
October 3rd - Daniel Cabrera vs. Randy Wells
Wells has fallen apart lately, and understandably so. Wells has never pitched this many innings in a season and there is no doubt in my mind fatigue is a factor. I’m just glad he’s having his growing pains now rather than during a season when it matters.
October 4th - Doug Davis vs. Ryan Dempster
The man who leads this team in innings pitched will finish off the 2009 season for us. I think Dempster learned a little something about conditioning this season, but we also have learned something about Dempster: He’s not a reliable top of the rotation pitcher.
Conclusion
I’ll admit that I was filled with optimism going into this season, too much for my liking actually. Outside of a Milton Bradley trade and perhaps a new addition to the middle of the infield, you’re already looking at your 2010 Cubs.
Will we be as optimistic next March as we were in the last one? I doubt it, but just keep this in mind folks: Almost every player on this team played below their career averages and preseason projections. Maybe we would like to place the blame on some combination injury, illness, pot, batshit craziness, or apathy, but I see the 2009 season as being the exception rather than the rule.
Baseball is a game of numbers. These numbers have been proven over and over again. For a whole team (outside of Derrek Lee) to play this bad all in the same season is…well…utterly ridiculous.
I’m not saying the team is cursed or that the manager needs to be fired or that a clubhouse cancer needs to be eradicated. No one reason (or combination of reasons) for failure exists. Naturally we want to find an answer, but the answer is simple: statistical anomaly.
I know the Cubs are far from perfect, but the window is still open and will still be open for a few years. You don’t have to be optimistic going into next season, but don’t expect such a subpar result either. Just saying.
Go Cubs. The end.
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Gamecast: October 2nd vs. Diamondbacks - Three Games Left Edition
Billy Buckner (3-6, 6.59 ERA) vs. Tom Gorzelanny (7-2, 4.20 ERA)
Story Lines
This is not going to be long and neither is the reminder of the season. The Cubs caught a break last night when the sky opened and washed away another fantasic preformance.
All kidding aside, the Cubs and D-Backs are playing for nothing. It will be interesting to see how Gorzelanny pitches as he tries to get a rotation spot for next season.
Who's Hot
Jim Tracy - Nothing like taking over a job in June and turning it into gold. The Rockies clinch a playoff spot, and it will be good for Tracy's pocketbooks next year.
Who's Not
Matt Diaz - Anybody see the great baserunning from Matt the other night? Ouch! That is a great way to lose a game. Maybe the Cubs can figure out something like that.
Conclusions
Enjoy your weekend and get ready for an interesting football weekend.
Series & Game Recap: Diamondbacks 10, Cubs 0
There's a downside to having a Cubs blog that actively covers the Cubs. That downside is this - if we are writing Series Previews, GameCasts, and Game Recaps to every game - and so far it's usually been me with a sprinkle of Jason and a dash of Yarbage doing all that - then we're essentially committing around 1,000 words daily to the team. If they suck, that means we're writing 3 pages a day about a team that sucks. If I instead chose to dedicate my life to writing 3 pages of fiction every day for the duration of the baseball season, then I would roughly have a Stephen King-sized book written by the time October rolls around. So maybe I have something invested in the Cubs not being a bad team, which would explain why I stubbornly have been ignoring the signs. Yesterday's theme was basically: the Cubs need to get consistent! Yesterday's game exemplified that theme - a day after blowing the D-Backs out of the water with an offensive barrage, the Cubs promptly got shut down and gave up 10 runs. But much as the Yankees were recently slammed by the Indians - who scored better than 20 runs against New York - whether the Cubs lost by 1 run yesterday or 10, it still only counts as one loss in the standings. In my mind, here are the relevant issues with the consistency problems. 1. Poor ability to adapt. Most teams are built to handle a number of scenarios. It's not uncommon in a National League game to see Team A call on a lefty reliever, only for Team B to respond with a righty hitter, only for Team A to respond with a righty pitcher and so-on. But on a team that has a recent history now of carrying an extra pitcher, the team's adaptability is excessively poor - especially if some of your regulars are hurt, or slumping, and the majority of your backup hitters only know how to play outfield. I blame Jim Hendry for his continued obsessive-compulsive desire to load up on one position each winter and Lou Piniella for chosing those players to fill out the 25-man roster at the start of the season. 2. Poor performance. Yesterday's keen example was Ryan Dempster. As a paragon of patience, a warrior of waiting, a courier of caution, an example of etcetera., of all the players on the Cubs Dempster has me the most worried. Generally a player who has a ridiculous career year like his in '08, who then gets a huge contract extension for 4 years ... well, these guys aren't necessarily always going to pay off. Last year Dempster had the tremendous ability to get himself into and out of numerous situations via walks, ground-outs, and so-on. This year his walks have been hurting him and he's been lit up more than a cigarette lighter at a Metallica concert. On the surface 6 hits and 3 walks in 6 innings of work don't appear to be the worst numbers in the world, but 5 earned runs in those 6 innings? Do I need to say how NOT GOOD that is? Last night, Carlos Marmol also joined the ranks of inconsistent performance. In his first game back from the leg injury he gave up 4 earned runs and managed to get only 1 out. My Caustic Cubdar (kind of like gaydar, but not about my keen ability to identify homosexuals) leads me to think that his leg is affecting his delivery which is affecting his performance which is affecting the suicidal tendencies of high-strung Cub fans. A crazy thought I'd like to implant in the mind of Lou Piniella: Caution Is Not Bad. Exclamation point! Your best reliever sprains his knee? Disabled list! Your injury-prone right fielder has a sore groin? Disabled list! Your third baseman hurts his leg? Disabled list!!!! (Note: The Cubs are actually thinking about doing that with Rammy, placing him on the DL. I wonder who they'd call up to replace him ... maybe Jake Fox?) A few days ago one pessemist asked, what happens if all the underperformers never perform in '09? Well, if that happens it would be historic. I'm hardly a probability expert, but mathematically speaking if something is possible it will happen given enough time and space. Since space and time are both essentially infinite, then that means that anything that could happen will happen eventually. But I'm not sold on 2009 being the year where half the Cubs lineup mysteriously gives up the ghost at the same time. In other words, things will get better. Maybe they'll sort themselves out, or maybe they will require active puzzle-placement by Hendry and Piniella, but a little bit of tinkering to get the "sorting" portion started would not be a bad thing in my opinion. Tonight the Cubs take on the Fish. Jason says he'll do the Series Preview, but the graphics might be a little late since I've got to go try on tuxedos. Current Record: 10-10 Quick Links
Position in the NL Central: 5th place, 4 games out of first
Best Possible Record: 152-10
Worst Possible Record: 10-152
Record needed to win 110: 100-42
On Pace For: 81-81
Series Preview: Cubs at Arizona
Game Recap: D-Backs 7, Cubs 2
Game Recap: Cubs 11, D-Backs 3
GameCast: Cubs at Arizona for the series win!
Story-lines
Or: Statistics as I Understand Them
I'm hardly a genius and I am especially not mathematically inclined. But here's what I understand about statistical probability in reference to the Cubs:
Two games ago, the Cubs scored 2 runs against the Diamondbacks. Their inability to score runs was not an indication that they would be unable to score runs the following night as evidenced by their 11-run barrage of Arizona.
Last night the Cubs scored 11 runs against the Diamondbacks. Their ability to score runs is not an indication that they will be able to score runs this afternoon.
Based however on the composition of the Cubs lineup, using the large sample size of their individual offensive performances of not just last season but the past several, it's fair to conclude that they will likely score a large number of runs on average over the course of the 2009 season. Therefore, it's fair to conclude that they are capable - if not likely - to score a large number of runs today.
Actually that's more philosophical theory with a hint of statistical evidence, rather than statistical theory. Regardless, I'm not wrong. The Cubs are neither likely to score only 2 runs or to score 11 today but they are likely to score a lot. But what I really wanted to take from my little adventure into probability discussion is this key fact - and yes, it is a fact - small sample sizes are irrelevant in predicting future performances. The only relevant samples we can take are from the large ones, and from June of 2007 until now the Cubs have been a run-scoring, game-winning force of nature. So I say again that all this panic and concern over small sample sizes (unfortunately occuring under the microscope of the start of the season) is probably a case of jumping the gun.
Take last night's offensive outpouring. Clearly the Cubs are like the kid forced to participate in sports even though he really wants to dance. They're just itching to bust out, dying to show off their steps, and a team as bad as we're afraid they are wouldn't be very likely to flat-out pummel another team in the way the Cubs did yesterday. The Cubs are playing for consistency more than anything else. A win today would be a good step in the right direction, and what's more it would be a step the team is entirely capable of taking as they have a good pitcher on the mound.
And that is my understanding of how statistics prove the Cubs should be a good team.
Who's Hot
Everybody had hits yesterday, but the biggest and the best came from Alfonso Soriano and Mike Fontenot (and Carlos Zambrano, but he's unlikely to hit today). Both players have now hit homers in consecutive games. At one point last night Lil' Babe Ruth got his batting average up to .250 before watching it drop back down, but everybody's favorite lil' shawty now has a .351 OBP and .780 OPS and is - at least briefly - on pace to hit 26 doubles, 26 homers, and to draw 85 walks. And just for the record, the guy he replaced is batting .235 for Cleveland with an OPS of .720, although he's actually on pace to hit more homeruns - at least for now.
By the way, Kosuke Fukudome drew 3 walks yesterday and at this time has an OBP of .482. I'd categorize him as the team's biggest mystery. Will he flounder like last year when pitchers get a second look at him? Or has he finally figured out major league hitting. If it's the latter then the Cubs have the potential for an even better offensive season than what we'd expected ... even while Geo Soto and Milton Bradley hit like little leaguers.
Who's Not
Geo Soto is sitting down for a few games while Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez are still not at 100%. Not to mention that Milton Bradley will have to do a lot more than get his second hit as a Cub before he escapes the "who's not" section of this article.
Conclusions
I'd love to see the Cubs build on yesterday's performance with another solid smack-down of the D-Backs. Then again, while statistics dictate that the Cubs could and should do well today, there's no reason to expect it. After all, this team has been very much hit and miss. But a road series victory following the harsh road series defeat at the hands of St. Louis would be incredibly nice and, hopefully, evidence that this season is faaaaar from over.
Quick Links
Series Preview: Cubs at Arizona
Game Recap: D-Backs 7, Cubs 2
Game Recap: Cubs 11, D-Backs 3
Game Recap: Cubs 11, Diamondbacks 3
The Big Moose also came extremely close to hitting for the cycle - he was just a triple short, and had he gotten an at bat in the 7th inning you just know that he would've stretched his legs to get it. I suppose this is the type of game where you'll often hear "Zambrano didn't have his best stuff but he delivered a solid performance nonetheless." They'll be saying that because through 7 innings of work he only struck out 3. The thing is, I don't believe that really demonstrates how good or mediocre his "stuff" was, because when Carlos struggles - even when he can contain the damage - he gives up lots of walks and, last night he only walked 2. The offense, on the other hand, was apparently looking to make up for lost time. Every Cub regular got a hit - including Milton Bradley, who in fact did make his return. 6 of the 9 starters also managed to drive in runs. But if you're wondering what was the biggest reason for this breakout, I have one suggested reason: patience at the plate. On top of their 15 team hits, the Cubs drew 6 walks - 3 from Fukudome - and they took advantage of big opportunities. Alfonso Soriano had a rare runners-on situation and he capitalized with a 3-run homer, his second in as many days. Speaking of "second in as many days," Fontenot hit another homerun too. Don't look now but his batting AVG is rising. Three Finger Hill started in place of GeoINO Soto and delivered a 3 for 5 performance, raising his AVG to .370 on the year. I still think Soto should spend some time on the DL or something, and Hill appears capable of filling in for a while. Oh, and lastly, Angel Guzman pitched 2 innings of shutout relief lowering his season ERA to 4.35. Maybe I was a little abrupt about him needing to be cut and I for one am willing to let him pitch for a while longer to see if he can get steady and consistent. The Cubs play for the series win tonight. So far their offense has been excessive-hit or complete-miss and they have not been able to consistently produce numbers night after night. Maybe it's high time for a change about that. Quick Links
Carlos Zambrano demands an explanation!
Series Preview: Cubs at Arizona
Game Recap: D-Backs 7, Cubs 2
GameCast:Cubs at Arizona April 28th
GameCast: April 28th - Cubs v. Arizona
Carlos Zambrano (1-1, 4.85 ERA) vs. Yusmeiro Petit (0-1, 6.00 ERA)
Story-lines
On a team where the starting second baseman is the only back up third baseman...
...where a guy who never played anywhere but first base before he turned 28 is starting in right field....
...where the only lefty reliever on the team has failed to have a single no-hit, no-walk outing...
...they play to do more than just survive. They play to WIN. It's DeathCub 2009 - The Bloodening!
The good news about tonight: Milton Bradley is apparently ready to return to the lineup, or will be ready to do so soon. Just one small request to Cub fans: when a guy has hurt legs/testicles, DON'T EFFIN' BOO HIM FOR NOT RUNNING OUT A HIT BALL. Idiots! YOU try running out a ground ball with a throbbing-not-in-the-fun-way groin!
Anyway, earlier I posted an article about the "crazy" roster moves I'd make to give the team better balance. One such "crazy" move would be promoting a legitimate backup third baseman and shortstop to the team at the cost of a guy who is essentially the team's sixth outfielder and one of the team's seven relief pitchers, three of whom appear to totally suck ass. But before you jump aboard the "crazy Kurt" train keep in mind that the team's only backup third baseman is their starting second baseman and he had something like two errors in one game yesterday. That's not good. Just sayin'.
Who's Hot
Alfonso Soriano - he hit homerun #6 yesterday. Incidentally the Fonz was given up on by Lou Piniella after a 1 for 8 spell as the #3 hitter. Thankfully Lou's not so quick to give up on other players who only go 1 for 8.
Who's Not
Mike Fontenot - despite his second homerun of the season last night Fontenot had 2 defensive errors at third. He's got some makin' up to do.
Dave Patton - He's been getting hammered as of late after giving up 2 more runs - 1 earned - last night. How much longer until Lou cuts the cord?
Conclusions
Between the two of them, I'd probably bet on Carlos Zambrano to have a better game than Yusmeiro Petit. But it's no sure thing -- the Moose has shown moments of brilliance amid instances of crappiness.
But if ever there was a game I'd like to see the Cubs win, it's tonight's.
Quick Links
Series Preview: Cubs at Arizona
Game Recap: D-Backs 7, Cubs 2
