GoatRiders of the Apocalypse

Ryan Dempster's successful conversion from reliever to starter has been one of the greatest values for the Chicago Cubs over the past few seasons.

You do realize he had a base salary of just $5.5 million in 2008, right? That's the year he pitched 206.2 innings, racked up 187 strikeouts, won 17 games, and posted a 2.96 ERA. Fangraphs estimates his play was worth roughly $22.7 million that season, given his performance over what you'd expect from a replacement-level player.

As they say: Holy Cow!

Last year, Dempster played for a base salary of $8 million, but still managed to provide excellent value for his team. He didn't exactly repeat his 2008 performance, but 200 innings of 3.65 ERA ball are worth about $16 million on the open market, so the team made out like bandits once again.

Of course, this is a series of 2010 season previews, so let's get to the Dempster-related question of the day: What should we expect from Ryan this season?

Based on the numbers I trust, the short answer I'll give you is this: another solid season. Multiple projection systems suggest Demp will be in the 180-200 inning neighborhood once again, and that his ERA will be below 4.00 once again.

For the longer answer, let me point out a few important trends that suggest Demp will be good again in 2010.

First: Remember agonizing over Dempster's insistence on loading the bases before closing out games back when he pitched from the 'pen? A lot of that had to do with walks. From 2004 to 2007, he walked more than four batters per nine innings pitched.

Fortunately, since moving to the rotation, Dempster's BB/9 have gone down. In 2007, he walked 4.05 per 9. In 2008, that was down to 3.31, and in 2009 the number fell again, to 2.93. He probably won't lower that number again this year, but at the very least he's demonstrated an ability to limit those walks (a skill he seemed to forget in 2008 -- GAHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!).

Second: In his second go-'round as a starter, Dempster's out pitch only got better last season. Dempster has a nasty slider, which he threw 27.4% of the time in 2008, to extremely positive results. In 2009, he upped that percentage to 34.1%, and opposing batters still couldn't hit it.

The reason it's so good is because it coaxes batters into swinging often, and when they do swing they often miss. In fact, while the average pitcher allowed contact on 62% of balls thrown outside the strike zone, Dempster's number was much lower, at 48.2%. Expect Demp to continue feeding opponents a steady dose of sliders, and expect opponents to continue to struggle against it.

Third: He's Canadian. The Olympics were in Canada. The Canucks won hockey. And let me be clear: I do NOT believe in coincidences.

Let's go ahead and call this one right now. Dempster will be good for 195 innings, 160 strikeouts, 12 wins, and a 3.70 ERA. Seem right to you?

Kurt
Dempster's Quality - More 'Depends' (not the adult diaper kind)

When Ryan Dempster signed his massive, four-year deal with the Cubs after his amazing 17 win season, I (and about every Cub fan with an ounce of common sense) loudly protested against him being rewarded with any contract lasting more than three years. 

I think most of us doubted last year that he'd post the same kind of ERA that he did in '08, but it was both conceivable -- if not probable -- that he'd be reliable.  And he was.  Year Two should be more of the same.  200-or-so innings, as AJ projects, 160-or-more strikeouts, and I'd actually say that Dempster will have an ERA no higher than 3.70, with a possibility of dipping down into the low 3's. 

Either way, his win total will be contingent on two things -- if he can stay healthy and how good the offense is.  With last year's offense, 2010 Dempster is still probably a 12-win guy.  With 2008's offense, he'd be a 15-or-more win guy.  While I doubt that the '10 Cubs are going to be as much an offensive juggernaut as the '08 squad was, I do think they should be a bit better than last year's team. 

For that reason, I'm banking on Dempster winning more than 12 games.  And if the Cubs are good and surprise us with 90 -- or even 87 -- wins or more, then Dempster will likely be responsible for at least 15 of them.  Here's to hope.

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Because of how prominently these recaps are titled, I probably shouldn't lead this one with, "Guess who led the Cubs in innings pitched and strikeouts?" But I'm clever, so I basically just did it anyway without you even noticing.

P.S. The answer is Ryan Dempster!!!

At the beginning of this season, a lot of Cubs fans were expecting to be really super pissed at Demp right about now. No one thought he'd be able to deliver on the four-year, $52 million deal he signed in the offseason.

But deliver he did, maintaining a 3.65 ERA over 200 innings, with 172 strikeouts to just 65 walks. To put those numbers into context, Dempster allowed 65 walks in one game this past postseason. (Consider yourself lucky if you don't get that joke.)

For the statheads out there, Dempster's '09 season was worth 3.7 wins over a replacement level pitcher, a value of just over $16 million, or twice his 2009 salary.

How'd he do it? Demp ended up taking the meh-diocre route, allowing two or fewer runs in only 16 of his 31 starts, and allowing three runs in exactly three starts. That's 12 starts with 4 or more runs, which is kinda not really all that great, actually.

In fact, that's probably the best explanation for why a guy with a 3.65 ERA only won 11 of his 31 starts.

Having said that, Ryan avoided disasters for the most part (although 6 ER in 4 IP against the frikkin' Pirates is pretty dern close). And he managed to post a few really good lines, too, like his two games against the Dodgers (7IP, 0ER, 3H, 1BB, 5K in each).

And of the 15 starts with two or fewer earned runs allowed, Ryan allowed zero earned runs in seven of them.

Beyond the numbers, there was one majorly frustrating moment during Dempster's 2009 season. Heck, when a kid in the stands starts pointing and laughing at you, you know you've screwed up.

That was when Ryan broke his toe on July 5th. He pulled a move that's known in sports circles as a "Gramatica," severely injuring himself while attempting to celebrate a recent victory.

But even with that stoopid move, Demp managed to hit the 200IP mark, give the Cubs a bunch of chances to win, and basically earn his salary. I'd put my money on another 200IP, sub-4.00 ERA season next year, too.

WAY TO GO, RYAN!!!

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^{Bobby Parnell (3-6, 5.08 ERA) vs. Ryan Dempster (7-7, 4.07 ERA)}

Story Lines

The Cubs won, but the Cardinals pull out a crazy win...go figure. Ok, so onto our look at the Cubs in 2010.

Starting Pitcher - No. 3 Starter (Ryan Dempster)

Contract 2009: 9 Million

Contract 2010:13.5 Million

Stats 2009: 7-7, 4.07 ERA in 143 2/3 innings. 122/54 K/BB Ratio with a 1.36 WHIP

Ryan Dempster as a big reason the Cubs won 97 games a year ago, and he hasn't been in bad in 2010. Of course, he really has been up and down, which is the story of the Cubs 2009 season. Dempster was rewarded with a big offseason contract and we all knew that it might have been a bad idea. One year into the deal, and I'm sure Cub fans wished Dempster was not signed for three years.

The Cubs have a lot of money committed into the rotation for next year, and Dempster going to be getting a nice 4.5 million dollar raise. The problem with sinking so much money into guy's like Dempster is that it is hard to make improvements.

The problem is that Dempster will probably not be as good as he was in 2008, and he's getting paid more than Ted Lilly, who is a better pitcher at this point. Of course, if Dempster pitches with a sub 4 ERA in the last three years it would work out just fine. Does anybody else think he can do that for three more years? This is just another move of Jim Hendry that is going to tie the Cubs hands for the next few years.

Running Totals
2010 Payroll: 44.4 Million (3 Starting Pitchers)

Who's Hot

Alfonso Soriano - Dude, he had three hits yesterday including his first home run in ages. It is good to see, but I have a feeling he is heading to a nice DL stint. Looks like Jake Fox needs to get ready and play some OF.

Milton Bradley - Maybe Milton can play just good enough over the last month and get some trade value for the Cubs. He had three more hits yesterday and is up to .262 on the season.

Who's Not

Ryan Theriot - Another 0 for 4 at the top of the lineup. He's down to .290 and looks rough out there.

Sam Fuld - Fuld's hot start is over, as he has seen his average did down to .259 with an 0 for  4 yesterday.

Conclusions

The Cubs need to win, but I'm not getting some hopes up.

Last night's game was all about the oh-fer. Five Cubs failed to get a hit last night, including the first, second, fourth, and fifth hitters.

That's how seven hits and five walks translate into three runs.

The pitching was bad, but not horrendous. Ryan Dempster posted an almost-quality start, racking up 10 strikeouts in seven innings, while giving up four runs. Guzman put the Cubs in an even deeper hole in the 8th inning, but the L still went to Demp.

It's not looking good, guys. The pitching isn't working, the hitting isn't working, and we're in San Diego of all places.

Lately, the biggest problem seems to be plating runs. It's not that we aren't getting hits, and it's not that we're not getting walks. The base runners are there, and to a lesser extent, there's some power too--Lee had a double and a homer, and Baker doubled as well, in last night's game. But somehow, we just aren't scoring.

Maybe this year is some sort of balancing out of the baseball luck equation. After Jim Edmonds and Mark DeRosa and Geovany Soto and Ryan Dempster and Carlos Marmol and Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot had career years, we were due for some suffering this year I guess. Maybe?

Yeah, let's go with that for now. Unlucky.

In the meantime, go Cubs.

Are oblique muscles related to the abdomen?  Can you run the risk of straining the obliques by being overweight?

Anyway, since I poked my head out here the other day and suggested that perhaps things might be looking up for the first time in months, we found out that Dempster broke his toe and Soto has strained his obliques.  (Also, don't forget David Patton's pulled groin...heh heh...he said 'groin').  No sooner do we get healthy, than guys start dropping again. And the worst thing is...I'm sitting here convinced it's MY fault!

If you don't ever have anything good to say, then everyone thinks you're a kill joy and suggest you hang yourself.  But every time in my whole entire life I have ever said something positive about the Cubs, it always comes back and bites me (and the rest of us) in the ass.  Every single time.

So now you know.  Honest to God, I want us to do well.  I just don't write about it, because it seems like when I do, hell comes for breakfast.

Ryan Dempster has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a broken toe. Carlos Zambrano will be moved up to start in tonight's game, and Kevin Hart has been called up to start Game 3.

In other news: I'm pretty sure this sucks.

I'll drop in links and updates as I see them.

Update: Steve Stone has chimed in. He says via his Twitter account that Demp could be unavailable for anywhere from four to six weeks, and that the injury is believed to be non-baseball related.

Here's the link to the spot starter article we did when Z was suspended. It's a good starting point, albeit a little outdated, to figure out the Cubs' options from Iowa if need be.

It's a tough loss, to be sure. No one likes to watch their team put up just one run in 18 innings.

While that sucks, let me see if I can talk you off the ledge anyway.

For one, the pitching has been brilliant. Demp was pretty excellent tonight, and Lilly did well for himself last night as well. It's starting to look like the Cubs will have legitimately fantastic starting pitching throughout this season. Of course you're gonna lose a couple close ones like tonight and last night every once in a while, but over the course of 162 games, I think I'll take the Cubs rotation over any other in the league.

On the other side of the ball, the Cubs have one major issue on offense. They're lacking power. It appears there are two hitters in the Cubs' system capable of helping deal with this problem. Unfortunately, Lou is having a tough time finding a spot in the lineup for either Micah Hoffpauir or Jake Fox.

The trouble with lacking power is, in these close games you often find yourself saying: "We're one swing away." Well, who's gonna give us that one swing? Is it Derrek Lee? Or Milton Bradley? We miss you, Clutchy McClutcherson.

Having said all that, I have one final note for all you ledge jumpers out there: after tonight's game, the Cubs are 11-6 this month, with games against the Padres and Pirates remaining on the schedule. An 18-11 month is very much within reach, and this without our best hitter.

Let's steal one tomorrow, yeah? Go Cubs!

I truly love it when Cub fans quit on their team during every rough patch.  Rather than beat around the bush, I will directly ask the question that needs to be asked:

What the hell is the matter with you people?

There has never been a team in the history of the game that didn't look like fumbling idiots at least once in a while during a long season.  Even the 1906 Cubs - winners of 116 games - had a 2 and 4 stretch early in the season, went 1-4 between May 19th and May 24th and went 2-4 between July 19th and July 24th.  And they won 116 games!!!  They won more games than any other team in the history of baseball and over the collected span of close to a month of baseball they played like dirt.  And if you don't have the stomach to watch a team lose games badly then go follow inter-murals, brother.  You'll never experience joy from a baseball season because you're too high strung.

So, let's take a look at today's reason for why people are quitting the team. 

Ryan Dempster.  17 game winner.  Multi-millionaire.  Bad luck pitcher who can't string together wins.  Dempster pitched into the 7th today, which is good, he struck out 9, which is better, but he gave up 7 hits and 3 walks which is bad.  Consequently he walked away with the loss.  But the real story is the bullpen.

Here's the funny thing.  I don't think the Cubs pen is actually all that bad.  The problem is that they've got two or three guys who really don't belong there and aren't even the best choices to be there to begin with.  Those three guys - Neal Cotts, Dave Patton, and Chad Fox, three guys who certainly will not be on the team by the time July rolls around - combined to surrender 6 earned runs.  Had that not happened, then the Cubs would actually have had enough offense to possibly win the game.

I mean, really, the Cubs offense was there last night.  They scored 6 runs off of 12 hits, including a 5 for 12 night from the 3 members of the Q4 who played.  Every regular but Theriot collected at least one hit, and every regular but Soriano and Scales got on base at least twice.  The offense was there.  The bullpen was not.

So, here's the deal.  If you think that pitchers like Chad Fox, Neal Cotts, and Dave Patton will still be around blowing leads into June and July, then you're right.  The Cubs are doomed. 

If you think that starters Milton Bradley, Geovany Soto, Mike Fontenot, and Derrek Lee will combine to bat below .200 all year long, then you're right.  The Cubs won't reach the playoffs.

But since the Cubs won't be using relievers who suck all year long, and since the Q4 are in fact much better than their numbers convey, then I think we can agree that quitting on the Cubs is a pretty stupid take to have.

I've said this before and I'll say it now.  If the players quit as easily as some of you do, then you would be outraged.  You would be furious.  I'm sad to see that some of you don't hold yourselves to the same standard that you'd hold the people actually playing the games.

Quick Links
Series Preview: Cubs at Brewers
Game Recap: Brewers 3, Cubs 2
GameCast: May 9th - Cubs vs. Brewers

Story lines

The Cubs come into the series down two games, and they are playing the best offense in the league (I gagged as I typed that). The Cubs have shifted around the lineup, thanks in part for Crazy Milton sitting out with only one hit this season. Ryan Dempster will try and get back to his dominating stuff from last year, instead of walking everybody.

The Cubs will also have to hold down Albert Pujols, who is crushing the ball early in the year.

Who's Hot

After two games and 1 run, I'm going out on a limb and saying nobody's hot. We need to win before anybody can move back up.

Who's Not

The Bullpen - I'm not ready to give on them, but we need some improvement.

The bottom third of the lineup - I could have said everybody, but it looks we need to get going.

Conclusions

The Cubs are scuffling heading into this season, and the Cards are coming off a sweep of the Mets. All it take is one game to get the next winning streak going. I think it starts tonight.