Earlier this morning I did a guest spot on Jon Miller's show on KXNO 1460 in Iowa. He asked me if I was ready to throw in the towel on the season, and my response was "in baseball anything can happen, but I don't think a Cubs playoff appearance is high up on the probability list this season." The problem -- well, one big problem -- has been their total inability to defeat good teams. The Dodgers are an example of that -- Los Angeles took 3 of 4 from the Cubs, whose offense evaporated this past weekend.

Ryan Dempster vs. Chad Billingsley

Story-Lines
The Cubs play today not only to avoid being swept by the Dodgers, but to also stay above .500 on the season.  Ryan Dempster, who has had just about as bad a season as possible for a guy who just signed a ridiculous 4-year extension, will try to be the stopper.

Except -- not to sound like a broken record -- I still don't think Dempster's year has been as bad as it's looked.  At this point, due to time missed Dempster is on pace to pitch 182 innings, to surrender 185 hits, 71 walks, and to strike out 157.  Last year in 206.2 innings he surrendered 174 hits, 71 walks, and struck out 187.  Obviously there's a difference there -- but per 9 innings he's still striking out 7.71 to last year's 8.14 along with 3.3 walks to last year's 3.5, and his K/BB ratio is still 2.21 compared to last year's 2.46.  The one difference has been the amount of hits he's given up -- in '08 it was 7.6 per 9, this year it's 9.1  Question is ... should that be enough for a guy's ERA to go from 2.96 to 4.28? 

I think it's a bit of bad luck.  Teams have a batting average of balls in play (BABIP) of .309 this season on Dempster, compared with .288 last season.  Just a thought -- maybe he'll turn things around next year.

Who's hot
Maybe some of the girls watching the games?

Who's not
Aaron Miles.  Why not just make him the scapegoat, eh?

Conclusions
The Cubs will have a tough road ahead of them today against a very successful Dodgers pitcher in Billingsley.  Still, they can't lose all their games ...

...can they?

(graphic to come later)
The Cubs have fallen to merely 1 game over .500 as they continue to be offensively impotent against Los Angeles.  Clearly, nobody looked particularly good last night and I'm hoping that Lou and Jim will white flag this grand season very shortly so the hurt players on the team can begin preparing for 2010.

In the ShoutBox f-a-u-s-t-u-s wrote that the Cubs need to go out and grab somebody who can bat 5th and drive in runs.  Theoretically, that guy is Soriano or Bradley, but neither player has done a servicable job in that regard this season.  At this point I'm more interested in who won't be returning -- Aaron Miles, for example.  Since he and his .170 AVG has made it this far, I have little doubt that the Cubs will continue to employ him through March of 2010, but I hope that he is kept on an extremely short rope once the Cubs start playing baseball games that matter.

There's also been some discussion as to whether or not Rich Harden's worth bringing back.  He's turned around and put up some very good numbers after his slow start, but he remains a fragile player waiting to break. As much as it might not be "smart" per se to invest our hopes in Tom Gorzelanny to pitch effectively in the rotation next year, the Cubs need to throw their money at guys without baggage who can actually hit the ball hard. 

Later today we'll have the GameCast.

(forgive me for the U2 reference in the graphic)
Randy Wells must be having flashbacks to earlier this season.  After surrendering only 2 runs, both unearned, the Cubs starter received his 6th loss of the season, this one to the Dodgers.  (Then again, the unearned runs came off a double surrendered to Dodgers pitcher Randy Wolf, so...)  The Cubs, meanwhile, managed only a single hit.  Between their games last year and this season, Chicago and L.A. rarely have high scoring games and I have to wonder if it's just chance or if perhaps the Dodgers just have the Cubs' number.

And with that, we could have the shortest recap of the season.  I mean, what else is there to really say about the game?

In other news, though, Carlos Zambrano is set to return shortly.  He's coming back to a hostile environment.  Fans have begun turning on him (hi, Rob), members of the media have a low opinion of him (hi, Paul Sullivan), whereas jamokes like me think he's a bit of a gift horse whose teeth we shouldn't be counting. 

Basically, my take is this -- and Rob, if you respond to this article at all I hope you respond to this part -- the Ace as Responsible Leader is kind of a myth.  There are plenty of examples of amazingly good pitchers who were selfish douchebags that teammates hated, with Roger Clemens coming to the forefront in that case.  I'm sure even Rob would agree that Clemens was ace material all day long, but he was also a selfish asshole prick who wouldn't even travel with the team on days he wasn't pitching.  Maybe what Carlos needs is to actually grow more selfish, become obsessed with his body and his statistics, and build himself into an iron machine of muscle and pitching domination.  Just a thought.

(And, incidentally, when Roger Clemens was in his late 20's he was a pudgy, out-of-shape douchebag ... just like Carlos.  Keep an eye on this comparrison.)

Now for the GameCast portion of this -- known also as Kurt is a lazy bastard who won't be around much today, so he's doing it now:

Ted Lilly vs. Charlie Haeger

Story-lines
We like to call this "playing with a fork in them."  That's what the Cubs are doing.  At this point the season has jumped the ghost so much that they might actually finish the year with a losing record, which would make them -- even with all the injuries -- the most under-achieving team in history.

I would like to very strongly suggest that if the Cubs enter September with a losing record -- or if they are damn close on Sept 1 -- then perhaps they should very strongly consider shutting down Ted Lilly, Aramis Ramirez, and anybody else who qualifies as a member of the walking wounded.  There's no point to them playing and delaying their rehabilitation time if all they are playing for is pride.

Who's Hot
Nobody's hot.  Not even Cub fans are hot at the team anymore, it's more of a sense of resignation. 

Who's Not
The list is long and painful.  Let's skip it.

Conclusions
Win, lose, meh. 

With the sale of the team, I think it's fair to say that everybody's focus is now on what the Ricketts will do, what the team will look like, and what will happen next once this season finally, mercifully ends.  In the meantime, at least these losses don't hurt so much.

Randy Wells v. Randy Wolf

Story-lines
Another night, another tough game for a team that's less than good.  But remember -- a week-or-so ago, I suggested that we stop getting upset when the Cubs are beaten like donkeys and focus instead on the smaller accomplishments of the individual players.  For example -- wouldn't it be something for Milton Bradley to get his AVG up to .280 in the ass-eating style of Fred McGriff (killing the ball when it's pointless)?  And wouldn't it be something for Kosuke to get his average up to .290 in an attempt to help set the table for the resurgent Derrek Lee reach 30 homers and 100 RBI?

Randy Wells is one of those stories.  For a guy who needed 8 starts to get his first win, he's been pretty tough to beat this season.  With a 9-5 record, his only real competition for the Rookie of the Year award is the sexier J.A. Happ, who's 9-2 with a 2.66 ERA for the eventual repeat championship winning Phillies.  It will probably be a second place performance for Wells, unless J.A. ehapporates -- get it, it's like "evaporates" but incorporates Happ's name, I kill me -- but for Randy to have any chance he'll need to be next-to-perfect the rest of the way. 

So, that's tonight's story-line.  Can Wells step up?

Who's Hot
After last night's dull performance, I'll only go as far as to say that Fukudome is hot.  In fact, he's so hot that they may use him as a stove element the next time they film an episode of Iron Chef.  Snap, the bad jokes just keep on coming!  Still, I probably will never get tired of pointing out that Fukudome is not so great.  But he is one of the better Cubs.

Who's Not
It's a list both long and storied.  Let's just sum it up with the bullpen and most of the lineup and leave it at that.

Conclusions
I love me some late night baseball, and watching the Cubs for the individuals -- rather than the broken promise of playoff glory -- makes this a dramatically less frustrating activity.  You should try it some time.  You might just enjoy it.

5 innings pitched, 5 hits allowed, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts, 2 earned runs. Chances are that will be Tom Gorzelanny's final line as a starter this season or at least for a week or two -- not that he pitched poorly, but he's not going to over-take the more vested starters in the Cubs rotation, nor Randy Wells as he continues to pitch his way into Rookie of the Year contention. If Gorzo returns to the rotation, it will probably be to replace a shut-down Ted Lilly, assuming the Cubs do the right thing and send him (and Aramis) off to be surgeoned once they decide this season is a lost cause.

Tom Gorzelanny vs. Jeff Weaver
Story-lines
Sorry for the belated GameCast.  I think I promised Yarbage I'd write it, only to forget. 

So, the present season appears lost, although there remains time to gain ground and sneak into the post season.  Still, I doubt anybody is expecting that to happen.  But on the off chance that the Cubs are going to surprise us, then it has to entail an ass-whipping of the Dodgers.  Seriously, y'all.  Enough's enough.

Who's Hot
Theriot, Lee, Baker, and Ramirez -- it's a case of the haves and have-nots right now.  In the past week, Theriot's batted .304 in the past week, but with few walks and a crappy OPS, Lee is batting .429 with 9 RBI (granted, 7 came from one game), Baker's batting .421, and Aramis is batting .417.

Who's Not
Soriano, Fukudome, Bradley, Soto -- meet the have-nots.  These four are complimenting the others by batting .214 or lower, with Bradley bottoming out at .167.

Conclusions
At this moment the Cubs trail 2-1, with the 1 coming off the bat of Fukudome.  As I mentioned briefly in the Series Preview, this may be Gorzelanny's last start of the season for the Cubs with Zambrano soon-to-return.  Unless he makes things interesting, which he has failed to do so far.

Overview
Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no. But then again, I’m just about ready to jump ship as the next guy.

Did you think the Cubs’ remaining schedule was more cupcake-loaded than Geovany Soto’s ass? Well guess again suckers. Now the Cubs head to L.A. to take on the National League-best Dodgers in a four-game series. Oi.

On the positive side, the Dodgers have actually been playing fairly craptacular baseball as of late. They have gone 7-11 in August and only have a 3.5-game lead over the Rockies in the N West. If ever there was a time to play the Dodgers, I guess now good.

The Matchups
August 20th – Tom Gorzelanny vs. Jeff Weaver
Until Tommy GoGo pitches a decent game against a good team, I will never agree he belongs in this rotation. Now he has a chance to convince me otherwise. The Dodgers have been jacking up left-handed pitching with a .289 team batting average and a .813 OPS against southpaws. Good luck Gorz.

Kurt Note
With Zambrano pitching in Peoria this weekend, Lou's going to have to figure out Gorzo's role pretty soon.  A tremendous outing from him tonight would go a long way toward creating a cluster-f**k in the rotation.  So book it.  Done.

The last time Jeff Weaver made it through the fifth inning was June 20 against the Angels. So expect this game to be another short outing. The Dodgers used four bullpen pitchers in their final game against the Cardinals last night, so maybe the Cubs can take advantage of a semi-tired group of relief pitchers.

August 21st – Randy Wells vs. Randy Wolf
When I look at the body of work Wells has put together this season, I see a guy who has won the games he was supposed to win. Wells dominates bad teams like every good pitcher should do. However, against the more talented MLB teams, Wells is only OK. In his 7 starts against quality teams (the Rockies, Cardinals, Braves, White Sox, Twins, Braves again, and Dodgers), he is 2-4 and has given up 20 earned runs in 43 innings. Could be tough night for Wells.

The other Randy threw a gem in his last appearance against the D-Backs in which he went 7.2 innings with 10 strikeouts. Wolf isn’t the type of pitcher that gives a hitter nightmares, but he has only allowed more than 3 earned runs once in the last two months. In all of those appearances, he has not pitched less than 6 innings.

August 22nd – Ted Lilly vs. Charlie Haeger
I’ve already mentioned how the Dodgers have fared against lefties this season, but TRL came off the disabled list looking good. I guess the rehab starts helped (Yes, I’m still mad about the way Lou and Hendry handled Dempster’s return). Lilly already faced the Dodgers this year on May 29 at Wrigley. He went 7 innings giving up 1 run on 4 hits.

Haeger has made one appearance this season in which he went 7 innings against the Cardinals giving up 3 runs on five 5 hits (2 of which were homers). Haeger is a knuckleball pitcher and (correct me if I’m wrong here) he will be the first knuckleballer the Cubs face this season. It could be an adventurous night for Milton Bradley and his "keen eye" for the strike zone.

August 23rd – Ryan Dempster vs. Chad Billingsley
The Good: Dempster struck out 10 against the Padres in his last start. The Bad: He gave up 4 runs on 8 hits and took the loss. Opponents are hitting .296 against Dempster since the All-Star Break and his suckiness is becoming more apparent with every start. For those of you that are advocating Lou to move Dempster back to closer, forget about it. There’s no doubt Dempster would take on the assignment if asked, but his contract is too big to move him back to the 'pen.

On a staff that doesn’t have a clearly defined ace, Chad Billingsley is about as close as it gets. His overall stats look good (12-6, 3.70 ERA), but Chad has had his issues with control ad endurance this season. He has walked four or more batters 10 times and hasn’t thrown more than 100 pitches since June 10. If the Cubs can wait him out, then they could have a big night against Billingsley.

Conclusion
The last time the Cubs were this far out of first place was back in July 2007. Think about that for a second. Two Thousand Friggin Seven.

Unlike that situation though, time is running out rather quickly on the 2009 Cubs and it isn’t getting any easier this weekend. The Dodgers don’t have a particularly strong rotation for a team with 71 wins, but the lineup can be terrifying.

Dodger Stadium is a pitcher-friendly park, but it still isn’t as cavernous as Petco, so hopefully Lou can pocket his excuses for the weekend.

This is one of the few times left in this season when the Cubs will actually have to play good baseball in order to win a series. Some signs of life would be welcomed, but I’d settle for a 2-2 split.

Go Cubs.

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I so love Cub fans.  The Cubs can take 2 of 4 from the hottest team in baseball and Cub fans will immediately jump on the negative. 

Take a look at Sean Marshall for example.  In his first full season as a starter, he's taken the mound in the first inning 8 different times.  In each of those 8 appearances, he's thrown 5 or more innings and he's only allowed more than 3 earned runs twice -- on May 5th, when he pitched 7 innings in a loss to San Francisco and yesterday, when he was rocked by the Dodgers.

In other words, Marshall has consistently delivered acceptable performances from the mound.  His record for the month of May before yesterday?  3-2, 4.05 ERA.  That's good for any 5th starter anywhere in baseball.  But because Sean Marshall got beat yesterday, these are the comments of a couple - well, one -- of our readers:

Cubsfanky: Sean Marshall is TRASH!! 

So, is this the way it's going to be all year long?  A player has an ugly performance and we jump him?  Ryan Dempster alternates between good, bad, and ugly outings and we label him a juicer?  Milton Bradley begins the year 1 for 23 and we call him selfish?  Derrek Lee slumps while he battles a sore neck and we call him washed up?  This is how it is now?

On the bright side, the Cubs offense accounted for 9 more hits yesterday but they were only able to draw a solitary walk.  Reed Johnson, who is apparently on fire, had another 3-hit game and suddenly finds himself batting .295. 

The bullpen also threw 4.2 innings of shutout relief, stopping the Dodgers offense cold.  They struck out 8 over that span too.

As for Sean Marshall, fans of Randy Wells couldn't have asked for a different performance.  It should be a tough decision for Lou to make once Rich Harden comes back as to whether or not Wells stays in the rotation and Marshall shores up the pen or vice versa. A few more strong outings from Wells, coupled with a few more bad or ugly outings from Marshall and Lou's decision will be easy.

Current Record: 25-24
Position in the NL Central: 4th place, 4.5 games out
Best Possible Record: 138-24
Worst Possible Record: 25-137
Record needed to win 110: 85-28
On Pace For: 83-79

^{Eric Milton (1-0, 3.00 ERA) vs. Sean Marshall (3-3, 3.70 ERA)}

Story Lines

In case you've been avoiding the Cubs for the past week, I would like to point out that they have a chance to take 3-of-4 against the best team in baseball tonight at Wrigley Field. How have they done that? Well, they continued to pitch well thanks to Randy Wells, Ted Lilly and Ryan Dempster. Then, yesterday they broke out the bats to club the Dodgers 7-0.

All of the sudden the Cubs are showing signs of life before heading out on a 9-day road trip to Atlanta, Houston and Cincinnati next week. With Milwaukee pounding the Reds this afternoon, the best they can be is 3.5 games out of first, which is just fine. The Brewers and Cardinals are in action tomorrow, so maybe we can pick up a half game without playing.

Back to the game at hand, the Dodgers are throwing Eric Milton. I thought he retired or something. Apparently, Milton did not pitch in '08, before signing a Minor League deal with the Dodgers this season. So far he's made two starts and is 1-0. I can't imagine he will keep up his 3.00 ERA, so I expect the Cubs to score a few today. Milton marks the fifth lefty the Cubs have faced this week, which is something you don't see often. They have fared pretty well against them, except Randy Wolf on Thursday.

Marshall will counter for the Cubs. In his last three starts, he's only gone five innings in each of them. Of course one of them was a rain-shortened complete game, but it is an interesting trend to look at in the time being. Unless somebody else gets hurt or the Cubs trade for another lefty, Marshall will move to the pen when Rich Harden comes back. I'm not sure how I feel about this, but if Randy Wells keeps pitching out of his mind it won't matter much.

The only other thing that's really got to worry Cub fans is the super-ice-cold Alfonso Soriano. Pat Hughes made a statement yesterday that he was a limping after catching a fly ball, but he stayed in the game. The Cubs really can't afford to lose another player, but playing with half a player really isn't that great either.

Who's Hot
Reed Johnson - What has gotten into Reed? He shaves his beard and goes nuts. In the last seven days, Johnson is hitting a not so cool, .389 with 3 HRS while posting a 1.339 OPS. Also, Reed is doing the little things like laying down 2-out bunts. This recent hot streak has raised his overall average to .270. Now if we can some other guys this hot.

Mike Fontenot - Nine days ago Fontenot was hitting .193 after a pinch-hit appearance. I guess he thought he might lose his job or something, because he's raised his average 37 points. He came up  with a 2-for-3 preformance yesterday that included a double and a triple, not to mention a walk and two RBI.

Milton Bradley - Well he didn't do any real damage, but he collected three hits and saw his average raise to .223. Hopefully, he's ready to carry the team for a couple weeks and get up to around .270.

Who's Not

Alfonso Soriano - What's cooler than being cool? Well, I guess it's Soriano, who went 0-for-5 yesterday. He's average has dropped to .246, and he hasn't hit a HR since May 17th.

Bobby Scales - It wasn't a great day for Crash Davis. Scales rapped into two double plays and left four guys on base.

Conclusions

After losing a game on Thrusday it seemed unlikley the Cubs could win this series, but they have that chance now. I suspect the Cubs will put together a good performance and get pick up their second straight series win.

Also, I'm going to all three game in Atlanta. Scott Lange, of the Northside Lounge, and I will be tailgating at least a couple of days this week. I will try and post more details later, but we're probably sitting in the Upper Deck. Leave a comment below if you anybody wants to get together.