Dear Cardinals fans:

You know that feeling of smug satisfaction that you've had the last two Octobers?  You know, the one stemming from how you saw the Cubs swept out of the playoffs?  I'm talking, of course, about that superior feeling that comes from watching teams like Arizona and, yes, Los Angeles crushing the playoff hopes of Cub fans?

It turns out you were right.  That feeling is a good one.  It's not as great a feeling as a championship would be, but I have to admit I smiled when the Cardinals were helplessly swept away by the Dodgers.

Sorry about your luck, Cardinals fans.  The winter is long.  Go Rams?

Let's take a moment to talk about what happened with the Cardinals, before moving back on to how bad Milwaukee sucks.

It's nice saving face and avoiding the sweep, especially when your team is starting to look more and more like the New York Mets.

Apparently, all a $2 trillion payroll gets you these days is an outfield of Bobby Scales, So Taguchi, and Micah Hoffpauir; a middle infield featuring Mike Fontenot and Andres Blanco; and a win for perennial All-Star Esmailin... Caridad? Whatever.

As we end the season series with the Cardinals, we have one last moment to talk about the Tale of Two Teams. Because really, on top of the storied history of this rivalry, things went really well for one team, and poorly for the other.

Call it a lesson in how to handle a bad economy in professional sports.

While Jim Hendry was giving himself (another?) heart attack this offseason. He signed Aaron Miles (after the Cardinals let him walk; RED FLAG!). He traded Mark DeRosa. He got Aaron Heilman. He signed Ryan Dempster, and of course, he signed Milton Bradley.

While on the one hand, that looks like a lot of moves, the Cardinals appear to have done more at this point in the season.

They added Matt Holliday. They grabbed John Smoltz. They acquired Mark DeRosa and Julio Lugo. In the end, the Cards did just as much to reshape their team this year as the Cubs did. They just did it at the right time.

What does this mean for next year, when the economy may or may not rebound? Does it make sense to trade Milton Bradley as quickly as possible? Should we pay Chone Figgins whatever it'll take to get him here? Do we sign Doug Davis before Spring Training begins?

Or should we start the season with what we have, and let things play out?

The Bradley thing may be a non-recoverable situation. But for a team that has been weighed down by enormous contracts for the past few years, maybe it makes sense to exercise a little restraint before we let Jim start writing a bunch more checks.

Just saying. And oh yeah, go Cubs!

Record: 76 - 72
Playoff Chances: real slim
Cranky Right Fielders Suspended: 1
Worst We Can Do: Have to wait one more year. But we're good at that, aren't we!

Carlos Zambrano (8-6, 3.94 ERA) vs. Adam Wainwright (18-8, 2.59)

Story-lines
Way back before the start of the '07 season -- or perhaps shortly after it began -- I had a long debate with a friend of mine about the quality of the Cubs when compared with the Cardinals.  This friend -- a lifelong Cub fan who used to sling beers in the bleachers during the '84 season along with his buddy Dave Kaplan -- explained to me that the '07 Cards were head and shoulders better than the '07 Cubs at almost every position.  He hammered his views home by telling me how great Adam Wainwright was compared with Rich Hill.

A few years later has proven him right in the long-term about Wainwright vs. Hill -- although as I expected Rich was the most outstanding of the two back in '07 -- but time will never erase the fact that the '07 Cubs were the better.  So, he can suck on that one for a while longer.

As for 2009, at this point there's no doubt that the Cardinals are a force.  They've received key performances from players of middling talent, all of their studs have played exactly as they'd expected, and they've even had the extra bonus of long-hurt stars returning to tip-top shape.  Thus, they have succeeded in making the Cubs their bitches.  Yes, it hurts.  But I would happily take a second-place finish to the Cardinals if it meant a Wild Card playoff berth, but even that won't be happening now.

And as the season winds down, the Cubs have 15 more games.  That's 3 more starts, give or take, which means that Carlos Zambrano will have to win today and once more if he wants to reach double digits for the 7th time in his career.  Hopefully this will be the worst season of his career, ironically appearing in a "prime" year, but we'll have to see about that.  He may not even be a Cub for 2010, although why they'd deal him now makes little sense.

Then again, not much makes sense about this shit-stain of a baseball season.

Yesterday's one-run loss got me thinking.  How many 1-run losses have the Cubs had this year where their opponents won by scoring, say, 5 runs or less in a game?  (I'm using 5 as my number because most good teams will average slightly more than 5 runs per.)

The answer is 17, and of those 17 games only 2 actually came to the final score of 5-4.  All others were actually games in which their opponents scored 4 runs or less.  But remember -- these aren't all the times the Cubs lost to teams they held to 5 runs or less.  The number 17 represents all the times they lost by 1 run, like they did yesterday.

In other words, with a half-competent offense, it's probably safe to bet that the Cubs could have won some of those games.  Imagine if they'd even only won 10 of them, right now Chicago would be 85-62, right in the thick of it.  And that's still assuming they would never have won any of the other games where their bats simply puttered and died.  Of course, it's all spilled milk.

During yesterday's GameCast I wrote about the bad luck of Ryan Dempster, but ultimately surmised that he's been good enough against the Cardinals to win "assuming the pansy-ass Cubs offense can figure out how to hit Carpenter."

Sadly, they didn't.  Dempster and Carpenter both pitched 8 innings, both allowed 8 hits, with Ryan striking out more, walking less, but unfortunately continuing in his bad habit of surrendering just a few too many homeruns in '09 -- this one to Brendan Ryan, who apparently has Dempster figured out as he collected 2 of the Cardinals' 8 hits.

It would have been another ridiculous Cubs shut-out had Jeff Baker not evened the score in the 9th with a sacrifice fly, but Carlos Marmol proved his unreliability again in the 9th by giving up 3 hits and getting only 1 out before St. Louis closed the door on the game thanks again to Brendan Ryan who singled home Mark "Why'd It Have to Again Be" DeRosa.

The Cubs all told managed 10 hits and 2 walks, failing to capitalize on 17 opportunities to drive in runs.  I don't know how a manager teaches "timely" hitting -- in fact I'm pretty sure it's supposed to be something where "clutch" is an overrated, made-up statistic -- but the Cubs may need to figure something out.

Besides, much as LaTroy Hawkins taught us that good relievers sometimes cannot close, players like Corey Patterson and Sammy Sosa (particularly the 2004 versions) taught us that if clutch is an illusory statistic, then "anti-clutch" is as real as gravity.  The Cubs have had there fair share in that category this year, particularly with guys like Milton Bradley. 

It's true that the real idiots out there will try to argue that Milton's been great and just hasn't had as many chances to drive in runs, but the reality of it is that he's been pathetic with runners in scoring position.  But we'll save that for a Monday or Tuesday article.

Ryan Dempster (10-8, 3.84 ERA) vs. Chris Carpenter (16-4, 2.45 ERA)

Story-lines
It's the unluckiest man in baseball against the guy who should feel lucky to be healthy. 

At the end of last season, Dempster's pending free agency status was the albatross in the room.  It's safe to say that any reasonable Cub fan knew he wouldn't duplicate his 17-win, 2.96 ERA 2007 season, but he wasn't about to realistically drop off again.  Besides, Jim Hendry has rightly displayed not just loyalty to his best players, but a willingness to reward their success and it probably would've sent the wrong message to allow Ryan Dempster to sign elsewhere.  Still, what works out to be essentially a 4-year deal was pretty stupid.

This year, while making $9 million, Clownsevelt has dealt with bad outings, irregular run support, and a broken toe.  He's still managed to get to 10 wins, though, and to get his ERA below 4.  But I still surmise that he's done better than his numbers convey.  Here's what I mean:

K/9: 2007 - 8.14, 2008 - 7.58
K/BB: 2007 - 2.46, 2008 - 2.40

These stats are important for two reasons.  First, if something is physically wrong with a pitcher they will tend to fluctuate a lot.  Second, that they are so similar tells us that something else is responsible for the higher-by-a-run ERA Dempster's sporting.

The answer to that is how many hits he's given up -- teams were batting .227 against him last year, and they're batting .264 against him in '09.  This appears to have happened for a bunch of reasons, the most predominant being that Dempster has allowed for an increasing number of fly-balls -- resulting in a handful more homeruns, but nothing to seek therapy about -- while also surrendering more infield hits (from 5.1% in '08 to 6.4% this year).  For comparison's sake, his opponent Chris Carpenter has an infield hit percentage this year of 5.2%. 

So -- maybe it's Dempster's fault, as he's not keeping the ball down, but maybe it's also his infield's fault, as they're letting more through, and maybe it's also just bad luck.  Either way, my feeling is that in 2010 he'll probably land somewhere between his '08 numbers and his '09 stats. 

Regardless, in three starts this season against the Cardinals Dempster is 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA.  He hasn't dominated them, but they haven't tormented him either.  It should be an interesting game ... assuming the pansy-ass Cubs offense can figure out how to hit Carpenter.

The Cubs collected 3 of their 7 hits and both of their 2 runs in the 1st inning yesterday, and were then shut down by John Smoltz and the Cardinals for the next 8 innings.  And while Ted Lilly delivered an extremely solid 7.2 innings of work, he melted down in the 5th surrendering 2 runs -- including an RBI triple by Mark "Why Did It Have To Be" DeRosa.  Then in the 9th inning, Aaron Heilman surrendered a walk-off homerun to Matt Holliday and that was all she wrote.

There's a saying in baseball about how good teams find ways to win and bad teams find ways to lose.  It's a cliche because it's true, but the Cubs aren't really a bad team.  They're just a not good enough team, there's a difference.  And in a year that seems to belong to the Cardinals, the Cubs are busy at making sure that their fans will have this October free for other things, like vacations, football, and dentistry.  Yay.

But hey -- there are teeny, tiny positives in this.  Derrek Lee is batting over .300 and has more than 100 RBI.  Jeff Baker has, minus a few droughts, been a worthy pickup at least for this season.  Aramis Ramirez managed to come back from a serious shoulder injury to have a very productive second half.  Oh, and the team got sold.

All these things are worth feeling The Positive about.  But the overall play of the Cubs on the field?  Not so much.

(and also apparently Kyle ... we'll have the Series Preview late tomorrow, sorry)

Ted Lilly vs. John Smoltz

Story-lines
Let this be a lesson to you all.  It is difficult to blog about something that is often less-than-fun to think about.  Maybe that's why abortion blogs are so far and few between.  Thus, without warning, it appears as if both Kyle and Chris have gone MIA for their various respected reasons, and so I will be stepping in to quickly throw together something to keep you entertained.

About a month ago, the Boston Red Sox released John Smoltz.  The Cubs were at the time desperate for a competent closer.  I threw together a post suggesting an idea "so crazy it just might work," ... the Cubs could sign Smoltz to a contract to close.

It went over about as well as vegan pancakes. 

Since he signed with the Cardinals, though, St. Louis has quickly propelled their way into a playoff spot.  Smoltz has gone 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 28 strikeouts and 1 walk in 4 starts.  But let's look back on the immediate response:

lostinthevines says
since the whole "the
players we have need to play better" thing isn't happening - why not
add a new piece? Our payroll sucks as it is - why not completely
explode it?

I'm wondering if lostinthevines is aware of what St. Louis is paying Smoltz to start. 

Then again, what's been wrong with the Cubs couldn't have been solved just by Smoltz, and I doubt that his presence would have made much of a difference -- if at all.  Still, could it have hurt? 

Anyway.  As I write this, the cubs are beating Smoltz and the Cardinals by a score of 2-0 in the 3rd thanks to a Derrek and Aramis double-fest and a Ted Lilly no-hit bid. 

Tomorrow, I will have more on this heated rivalry -- particularly my feelings about the cheating nature of Albert Pujols.  I'm sure Token Cards Fan has been wondering about how we'd handle this series ... I have to admit I've been gathering the photoshops in anticipation.  They will be re-posted soon.

Ah yes, the Cubs and Cardinals.  The bitterest of rivals.  Their fans hate -- and will occasionally fight -- each other.  These two teams have held a stranglehold on the NL Central for most of this decade, with the '06 World Champion Cardinals coming out ahead. 

Rather than make a traditional Series Preview, I thought I'd do one better ... here's a series of many of the Cardinals photoshops we've done through the years.  In theory, you'll be able to tell the older from the newer based on how much they suck.

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^{Ross Ohlendorf (10-8, 4.30 ERA) vs. Rich Harden (7-7, 4.30 ERA)}

Story Lines

The Cubs really need to sweep here this weekend, because a trip out West looms with the Dodgers. The Cardinals are pretty close to sweeping the Padres, and the Cubs need to keep pace heading into the road trip. The Cards play three against the Dodgers, before getting a four-game series against the Padres. The Cubs luck has them playing three against the Padres, with four against the Dodgers. So, it is imperative that the Cubs find a way to club Ross Ohlendorf.

Is it possible for Ohlendorf to have 10 wins? The Pirates only have 46 wins as a team, but Ohlendorf has been able to scratch out a few W's. For the Cubs, Rich Harden heads back to the mound after a heartbreaking loss last Tuesday. Harden was perfect through five, then he gave a walk and a home run to tie the game at 2-2. Hopefully, he has the same stuff this time out and the offense gives him a little help.

The Cubs did game a .5 game in the Wild Card after the Rockies and Marlins were rained out yesterday, but they still remain in 5th place.

Who's Hot

Jeff Baker - Baker is playing 2B for the long haul it looks like. He had two RBI yesterday, including his second home run as a Cub. He's got a 1.298 OPS in his last seven games.

Geovany Soto - This might be a little early, but any news is good news right? Soto picked up two more hits yesterday after getting a hit on Friday. Hey, at this point we'll take any production we can get.

Who's Not

Alfonso Soriano - What can I say? Well, my mom raised me to think that if you don't have anything nice to say, you shouldn't say anything at all. Well, let me say that in his last seven games, Soriano has 3 hits in 29 at bats. That says it all to me.

Conclusions

The Cubs should win today. They seem to beat up on the bad teams, and run away against the good ones. Maybe a trip to San Diego will help them prepare for the Dodgers, or at least give us a little more false hope for another week.

The Cubs are in first! How lovely.

Considering the astounding number of talking heads and idiot columnists in the sports world these days, I'm kinda surprised no one wrote about this a few days back. The Cubs' sweep of the Reds was not an earth-shattering result, and did anyone really expect the Cardinals to beat the Phillies at home?

As a result, we get to have that, "If the season ended right now..." conversation as many times as we'd like today. Of course, we've still got more than one-third left of the season to play out before anything's decided. With that, I thought I'd take a look at both teams' upcoming schedules, to get a gauge on what's reasonable to expect going forward.

-----

The Cubs and Cards each close out the month of July with a four-gamer. Both teams are at home, but the quality of their opponents isn't quite equal.

The Cubs take on the Astros, a team that has somehow played its way into third place in the NL Central. It's true that the offense has some pretty huge holes in it throughout the line-up. However, as you'll see in the upcoming Series Preview, the Cubs have a couple of tough pitching match-ups ahead of them. Neither of the first two games (Z vs. Wandy, Demp vs. Oswalt) will be easy wins by any means. If the Cubs drop both, they'll need Randy Wells and Kevin Hart to pitch well against Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz to salvage a series split.

At the same time, it doesn't look like the Cardinals will have much of an advantage in any of their match-ups, either. Their series probables are: Wolf vs. Carpenter, Billingsley vs. Wainwright, Kershaw vs. somebody (TBA), and Kuroda vs. Lohse. If Carp and Wainwright go nuts, the Cards might get lucky with Lohse and take three of four. More likely, they'll split, or worse.

-----

It'll be important for the Cubs to pick up a game on their way into August, because it'll be a tough month to try to stay in the lead.

Generally, there's the issue of opponents' winning percentage. The Cards take on teams with a collective .449 winning percentage, while the Cubs take on a schedule with a .490 percentage.

There are a few key series that explain the difference in strength of schedule. The Cardinals have arguably one tough series, a three-gamer at Los Angeles. In contrast, the Cubs have three difficult series in August: four games of their own at Dodger Stadium, playing host for three games to the Phillies, and four games in Colorado against a surprisingly spunky Rockies team.

Pitching match-ups and reinforcements from the disabled list will hopefully give the Cubs the extra oomph they need to carry the division lead into September. In the meantime, it'll be important to take advantage of this next series, to try to get some breathing room before heading into August.

Go Cubs.