THIS is what happens when you spend a whole winter beating a drum for a guy - when he tails off miserably, then you are compelled to write his seasonal recap.

Yes, it was I who started the "Fu-ku-do-me" chant, about this time last winter.  And I did then write his 2008 Seasonal Forecast, in which I predicted he would find the Majors challenging, but then he would rebound and end up pretty much where he ended up.  However, I am not going to swell up and buy myself a swami turban, because that's just not what happened.

No, from day one, he bent the NL over and worked it like Peter North.  While Ramirez and Soriano started slowly, the Dome brought something to the Cubs that they have never had...a double shot of plate patience and discipline.  He would not swing at bad pitches.  When they went outside, he slapped to left.  When they came in, he roped it off the right field wall.  Whether it was coincidental, and I choose to think it was not, he and his teammates led the world in OBP at the All-Star-Break, the first time that has ever happened in my recollection.

Then, I don't know.  Maybe things came too easy for him at first.  He seemed to lose confidence and concentration.  Started swinging at everything, twirling around like a damn tee-ball reject.  His percentages plummeted, and as much as he carried us in the first half, he killed us offensively in the latter half.

Problem is, as I have always contended, right field at Wrigley demands a plus-fielder with a plus-arm, and even during the o-for-fives, Fooky played the position flawlessly, keeping us in games.  It was almost impossible for Uncle Lou to sit the man, up until the very end, when the team went on a slump, and we threw the "anti-Fukudome", wild-swinging-and-fielding Micah Hofpauir in right for some punch.

Maybe the pressure of the fame and the expectations that he would be the savior and the slayer of the 100-year curse was too much.  Only he knows, but although he should never have been a savior, he was however a missing link.  He was signed to be the bat handling, smooth fielding piece to the incomplete 2007 puzzle.  Sound baseball minds realized that the league would adjust to Kosuke.  But, for the money he was given, the expectation was that he would, in turn, adjust to the league, as his fellow Japanese Ichiro and Matsui had.  By the playoff series of 2008, that re-adjustment had not occurred, and everyone has turned on him.

Rumors after the season had him walking away from his 3 years and $30MM, to stay home and return to the Central League.  Uncle Lou basically insinuated that F-me was fat and out of shape, and a more "American" off-season regimen is being prescribed for him this winter.  He has lost his starting position in RF for now, and all indications point to a platoon in CF with Reed Johnson, provided he regains some sort of hitting stroke, because towards the end, he was whiffing off of righties as well as lefties.

Based on his track record prior to joining us, I have to believe he has the ability to adjust to the league, and regain his position in right.  But, as much as it pains me to say it, we are talking about the Cubs here.  It would just be typical for us to sign an all-star only to watch him swirl around the toilet.  Let's hope not.  There is absolutely no indicators to suggest any outcome at this point.  Sure, he ended up pretty much as I said he would, in the composite.  But based on his fast start, this cannot be regarded as anything else but a disappointment.

As tempted as I am to write a long, pithy post about the numerous talents of Jake Peavy and why he is worth the first born of every Cubs fan, I thought I would instead address another area of need by the Chicago Cubs - the leadoff hitter, aka The Wheel Man. (Note: the leadoff hitter is not in fact called The Wheel Man. I just made that up. If you see it used elsewhere, they stole it from here.)

We all know that the Cubs do not have a wheel man. They don't have a guy who will lead off a game by working 10 pitches before finally drawing the 4th ball, trotting to first, and then stealing second before the Cubs #2 hitter can smack a soft shot into the outfield porch and drive him home. What they have instead is an uber-rich star slugger, a left fielder with great bat speed who also has the ability to steal bases and prefers to bat leadoff despite being better suited to bat 5th. Phew. Long sentences so far in this one.

The cry to let Fonzie be Fonzie is not only plagiarism, it's also wrong. I don't believe he's as flaky as some think he might be, so treating him with kid gloves is unnecessary. After all, we have now seen Soriano bat leadoff for the Cubs through two post season appearances, and in both cases he appeared lost and inadequate. Coincidentally or not, so did the rest of the Cubs lineup and we the fans had to put up with watching our team get blown out by a collective score of 36 to 12. That's 12 runs in 6 games. Do the math. Wait, on second thought don't, because if you're anything like me it will end in a pit of depression, a drinking binge, and waking up in a seedy Detroit hotel with what appears to be a nude transvestite. The transvestite I could deal with, but Detroit? Oh no, my friends, you do not want to do the math.

Rob has already expressed his views that the Cubs need a Real Leadoff Hitter. He believes that it should be a top off-season priority and has suggested that, for a second winter in a row, Jim Hendry pursue Brian Roberts, who is presently wasting away in Baltimore for a perpetually crappy team (thereby proving that a leadoff hitter alone is not enough). However, I thought I'd put the anal back in baseball analysis and take a closer look at the players we already have. After all, surely the Cubs must have somebody who'd be a good leadoff hitter, right? Let's take a look.

Alfonso Soriano - 443 AB, 29 HR, 75 RBI, 19 SB, 3 CS, .287 AVG, 100 SO, 42 BB, .350 OBP, .894 OPS
In his second season as a Cub, Soriano put up those numbers while batting in the #1 spot of the lineup. Pretend he doesn't have a power game, and 19 steals in 22 tries plus a .287 AVG plus a .350 OBP puts him right in line to be a good leadoff guy. But the fact is this - Soriano is a free swinger. His actual numbers leading off an inning - as opposed to batting #1 in the batting order - are not great.
Leading off an inning: 168 AB, .286 AVG, .318 OBP, 36 SO
Leading off an inning '06-'08: 648 AB, 39 HR, .299 AVG, .335 OBP, 135 SO.

Some people are afraid that the Fonz would be too much of a headcase to succeed elsewhere in the lineup. I disagree. He may be one of those sensitive types who needs to know his jorb in order to feel comfortable, but he'd adjust. Quite frankly, he has expressed a willingness to bat elsewhere in the past, but after a shiz-itty start to the '07 season, the Cubs returned him to his comfort zone. He then had an equally crappy start to the '08 season, which leads me to believe the more likely scenario that he's just a slow starter in cold weather. So, relax already and move on. The Fonz is not the solution, nor should he be a problem if he gets relocated to 5th.

Kosuke Fukudome - 58 AB, 3 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 3 SB, 1 CS, 8 BB, .276 AVG, .373 OBP, .804 OPS
Ah, Fukkie. I'd like to take this opportunity to point out that, back in March, our own Rob predicted that Fukudome would put up exactly the numbers he actually put up. Rob, heed your own advice: When asked who would be the biggest turd of the '08 season, you said "People are gonna say FukU because he is NOT going to hit for a high average in 2008... probably around .250. His OBP will still be over .350, though." (You also predicted he would hit 13 homers, by the way.)

The 'dome did not spend a lot of time batting leadoff, and in the second half he also didn't spend a lot of time hitting the ball. But he is above all else a professional hitter, and I am convinced that he'll have a decent 2009. Considering that he has respectable speed - he could probably do better than 12 steals in 16 tries, and I suspect he will next year - and especially considering that he has epic patience at the plate, then Fukudome might be a sensible in-house leadoff guy. However, I am intentionally ignoring his "lead off inning" numbers, because although he has a better OBP in those situations (.336 to Soriano's .318) he otherwise sucks.
Leading off an inning: 104 AB, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 14 BB, 24 SO, .240 AVG, .336 OBP, .663 OPS

Reed Johnson - 77 AB, 4 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB, 2 CS, .234 AVG, .302 OBP, .666 OPS
If I was trying to talk myself into Reed Johnson as a leadoff choice, I promptly talked myself out of it when I looked at that line. However, taking it a step further, in the past 3 seasons as a leadoff hitter Johnson has had 724 AB, and he has a .290 AVG, a .360 OBP, and a .784 OPS. In other words, he's not an unreasonable option.

By the way, his "lead off inning" numbers also sucked last year, but doing the 3 year split thing, Johnson has had 377 at bats leading off an inning, and he's batting .281 with a .342 OBP in that situation. Here's the full splits:
Leading off an inning: 93 AB, 6 2B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 18 SO, .226 AVG, .265 OBP, .555 OPS
Leading off an inning '06-'08: 377 AB, 25 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 19 BB, 71 SO, .281 AVG, .342 OBP, .740 OPS

Ryan Theriot - 68 AB, 3 2B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 6 BB, 1 SB, 1 CS, .368 AVG, .419 OBP, .831 OPS
I've argued for the past season that Theriot is either a #1 hitter or a #8 hitter. He doesn't have the slugging ability to bat anywhere else in the lineup, and Colin very well might disagree with me even on that premise. Theriot's numbers obviously benefit from limited at bats, but in terms of hitting, getting on base, and stealing, Theriot had a respectable '08. The one concern I'd have with him offensively as a leadoff guy is that he was caught stealing way, way, way too often this past season. His EOBP* was .364 last season, roughly 20 points lower than his OBP of .387.

(*EOBP = Essential On Base Percentage. Basically H+BB-CS divided by AB+BB = EOBP, or the number of times a player was actually a factor on the base paths for his team. It's a stat I invented a few years back that, I swear to Gawd, will someday catch on)

If Theriot can cut down on the basepath blunders, he might be a good choice to bat leadoff. Although, in reality, I believe that like Rich Hill before him, Theriot should be Trade Bait this off season.
Leading off an inning: 129 AB, 5 2B, 1 3B, 18 BB, 20 SO, .287 AVG, .374 OBP, .715 OPS
Leading off an inning '06-'08: 301 AB, 21 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 31 BB, 31 SO, .276 AVG, .343 OBP, .758 OPS

Mark DeRosa - Did Not Bat Leadoff in 2008, nope, not once
Ah, DeRosa, the dark horse. On a team where steals don't matter, DeRosa is a possible leadoff man, although he remains in my mind the best #2 hitter on the Cubs. Just consider even only his career line - .279 AVG, .348 OBP, and he actually was 6 for 6 in steals in '08. If DeRosa returns to the mean and puts up a .350ish OBP next season, he'd still be a fine choice to bat near the top of the lineup. (Sidebar - what's actually most impressive is that DeRo batted 6th last year 243 times and he batted 7th another 150 times, and he still managed to score more than 100 runs for the Cubs. Christ, that was a Complete Offense.)

Also, any way you cut it, DeRosa is one of the best when it comes to actually batting first in any inning. I can't believe this guy isn't batting second in the lineup at the very least.
Lead off an inning: 115 AB, 9 2B, 5 HR, 11 BB, 14 SO, .330 AVG, .394 OBP, .933 OPS
Lead off an inning '06-'08: 331 AB, 28 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 34 BB, 54 SO, .299 AVG, .370 OBP, .820 OPS

And now, just for crits and grins, let's take a look at Rob's Coveted:

Brian Roberts - 609 AB, 51 2B, 8 3B, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 82 BB, 104 SO, 40 SB, 10 CS, .297 AVG, .379 OBP, .831 OPS
Roberts is clearly a pro when it comes to this gig. In all ways, he's better than any Cub out there - but how much better? If I guessed, I'd say that were Colin to crunch the numbers, Roberts might account for a win difference of perhaps 2 or 3 games if the Cubs shuffled their lineup to bat Roberts leadoff.

But the place where Roberts might make a difference is when those 2 or 3 games would count the most - the DS, the CS, and the WS. There are so many little factors that go into playoff success, and I truly believe that the best team rarely wins. It often has a lot to do with luck, and who's hot. Roberts could easily enter the NLDS and tank. Soriano could enter the NLDS and light the park on fire with his bat. We really never know, but any advantage gets put under a microscope in October, and Roberts would be a good one to have. Although I would argue that, realistically, the Cubs do have a few options to bat leadoff who could get the job done, and perhaps their best option would be to find a more potent #3 hitter/RFer. Just a thought, assuming they can't do both.
Lead off an inning: 256 AB, 22 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 26 BB, 40 SO, .301 AVG, .365 OBP, .834 OPS
Lead off an inning '06-'08: 728 AB, 58 2B, 4 3B, 13 HR, 79 BB, 99 SO, .291 AVG, .361 OBP, .796 OPS

Incidentally, over the past 3 seasons leading off an inning, I would argue that the only difference between Roberts and DeRosa is pure speed. DeRo looks surprisingly comparable to Roberts otherwise.

So, who will be the Cubs wheel man? It's a tough call. If the team plays it in-house, the easy prediction is Theriot or Fukudome if he regains his stroke. If the team plays the free agent market and ponies up the cash, the best option may be Furcal. But if the Cubs are looking for their best option for scoring runs in the playoffs, then they need to reshuffle their lineup and pursue another big stick to play right field. A pure leadoff man of Robertsesque quality would be great - great - to have, but this is where I disagree with the Sloth. As great as it would be, it's probably not the end-all be-all move the Cubs can make.

Last night, I held the baseball Kosuke gave me at a game, held it up to my face and whispered to it.

I bounced around my bedroom telling the ball "come on, Kosuke, we need your left-handed bat to get hot in the lineup let's do it you can do it come on come on come on".

Someone hand me the straight jacket.

Sooooo... Fukudome. I'll let the widget do the talking:

I hate looking at monthly splits, because there's so much noise and you can back yourself into a corner with selective endpoints real quickly, but since everyone's talking about how he's "hit a wall" or somesuch I figured I should address it.

A few things stand out:

• His line drive rate seems fine, but his batting average on balls in play seems to have dropped in August. That's something I expect to correct itself. You keep hitting line drives and eventually the ball will drop into play.
• He's not swinging at more pitches, which is contrary to what I hear everybody saying about him. He's still taking pitches. But his contact on pitches he is swinging at is down.

Remember - these are small samples of performance grouped by essentially arbitrary endpoints. I suppose the next question is, are pitchers pitching him differently? That's next time.

We have seven weeks to go before the big dance starts, and comparing 2008 to other past Cubs years, this team has a relatively good chance of making it there.  That's one way to avoid pissing off Karma by using the "p" word that rhymes with "gheyoffs".  Most of us HERE at this point in time are forward-thinking enough fans to realize that October roster composition is the key issue for the Cubs. 

By far, the bullpen is the biggest area of concern, but I do not come today to offer the optimal bullpen recipe.  Only the fetching Sarah Wood knows how much her hubby hurts, and whether he can finish the year as our closer.  Only the theoretically fetching Mrs. Howry can know whether her hubby is tired, or toast.  Only the also theoretically fetching Mrs. Marmol (or, based on input from Kyle, assorted St. Louis casino floozies) know whether or not her hubby has enough sack hangin' in his BVDs to be able to throw that sick twisted slidepiece again and again in the biggest situations.

So I cannot in good conscience come out here today and instruct Messrs. Hendry and Pinella in Optimal Cubs Bullpen Construction.

I also cannot instruct the above-mentioned gentlemen on what to do with K. Fooky.  The Dome has earned a firm, warm spot on the bench based on his recent offensive woes.  But if you do that, you cripple your outfield defense, thus your overall defense.  I am not going to go through the permutations here, but I defy you to suggest an alternative defensive arrangement that wouldn't be a gigantic step backward.  Furthermore, while your typical Anglo or Latin redass might respond one way to a benching, I honestly don't know how the Dome would react.  All I know is that Japanese think WAY different from us.  That's not wrong or right, just different.  That is why Uncle Lou is being paid the large bux.

In conclusion, I come today to gently suggest that the 25th man on the roster should not be Daryle Ward anymore.  It should be Micah Hofpauir.  Micah does everything Ward does, a little bit better.  He is a bit better hitter, a bit better runner, and a bit better fielder.  Granted he still sucks everywhere but 1B, he is no Lou Brock on the basepaths, and he really does not figure in our longterm plans.

But when going to the big dance, don't you want to bring the absolute best dancers you have?  Micah > Daryle, so wish Mr. Ward well with his degerative disks and his hugh jass and send him on his way.

A small gesture, perhaps.  But I know my limitations, and this is one area I know I am correct in, and I cannot believe this is still an issue.  Uncle Lou wants "veteran presence"?  What the hell is Lassie Edmonds, then?  One guy hanging onto his career by his fingernails is enough...

There was a point in time this season where it appeared every time Kosuke Fukudome came to the dish that we needed a baserunner in the worst way, and he always got on base some way or another.  Of course, there was a point this season when the whole damn team was getting on base every time they strode to the plate.  Those days are long gone, which sucks, but is quite expected.  Even a roster of Babe Ruths, Barroid Bondses and Grampa PooHoles is gonna make an out more than half the time.

The Fooker, he spoilt us.  The last month or so, he's seemed far more human, and everyone from the beat writers to my lovely wife is starting to pile on to the fact that he is struggling.  But I am not worried, which is quite contrary to my usual Cubs stance of gloom-and-doom.  Why?

Because, I predicted this long ago.  All fast-starting rookies end up having to make the "second adjustment" after the league makes its initial adjustments against him.  This is no different, even for a 30 year old Japanese Central League MVP.  Now, I understand, for the money he was paid and the pressures he has already withstood in his career, the dropoff should be less, right?  Yeah, probably.

He hasn't exactly dropped off the back of the truck, you know?  He is still hitting over .290, his OBP is still .400 (which if I told you in March that he would have a .400 OBP for the year, you would have soiled yerself in excitement) and he still picks it cleen in RF.  He does look Baaad when he strikes out with that ghey little spin, but hey.

Every major Japanese star from Ichiro to Matsui to the dude in the Bay who is now rippin' it up has had to adjust to the parks, to the demands.  Kosuke has had to deal with batting 5th (a power position he was woefully overmatched at), a brief stay in his rightful home in the 2 hole, followed by the experiment at the top of the order, where he has done his due diligence in taking pitches like a good leadoff man should do.  I think he's been totally shafted by a few pitch calls, which has caused him to expand his strike zone.

I dunno, maybe the umpiring, like the populace, was more homogenous back home, and he certainly by the end of his career there earned the respect of home plate umps and carved out "his own" strikezone.  That hasn't happened here yet...all these umps see is a Sports Illustrated coverboy who is not much more than a slappy.  Ichiro probably whipps his ass in a home-run derby.  But if he is the player I think he is, and the player the Cubs are paying for, he will re-adjust. 

I'm just saying people need to chill on the Dome.  Things are bad right now, guys are hurt, others are psycho (Pie?  Hill?  Hello?), and some are just plain gone.  What IS the deal with Ramirez, anyway?  The Sun-Times reports he is home with a new baby, but every other news source in the world, including his own team, will only admit to "Family Issues".  I don't know why the Son of A-Ram couldn't have been born in the States, and it is supremely selfish to put us a man down for an entire series, but why all the euphenisms?  If he is out having a baby, why not just say so? 

Finally, I mentioned psychos just now, and Colin just addressed what appears to be a real hatchet job on Felix DessertPastry down in tha AZ.  Some media is reporting that he IS living up to some people's advance billing as Corey, Jr., being pissy at extended spring training.  Colin finds out that isn't quite the case, fine.  Then Colin concludes with his treatise on the question of character in athletic endeavors which, hmmm.  He's our numbers guy, and a fine one he be.

Certainly there are the Roses and Bondses and Clemenses of the world, and there are many other examples of fine ballplayers who weren't fine men.  But in their own way, they kind of are fine men, because at least they have the mental fortitude to focus on their craft and prodigiously produce which in turn helps everyone else win.  It's the guys like the Corey Pattersons and Rich Hills of the world, who have physical talents but have character 'flaws' that override their abilities.  With Patterson, it is his belief that he is a home-run hitter that has caused him from realizing his full potential.  He has rejected instruction, although in hindsight perhaps the instruction offered wasn't the best in class.

We as Cubs fans tend to worry inordinately about Pie, for several reasons: the dearth of quality position players the organization has produced; his obvious speed and strength; the hype that has preceded him; the example shown by his predecessor; and his relative inability to express himself to an English-speaking fanbase.  It is unfair, in that most of these are not his doing.  It may just be that he is a guy with some speed and strength who was good enough once to tear up AAA, but may not be able to make the jump up.  It may also be that he is still too young, although there are others his age and younger who have thrived in the league. 

We're just overvigilant, hypersensitive to any possible bump in the road, and starving for a winner.  This is possibly too much pressure for ANYBODY to overcome, whether your last name is Pie, Hill, Ramirez, Fukudome, or even Pinella.  I have said this all along - the Cubs team that eventually climbs the mountain is going to have to do more heavy lifting than a team of any other name.  The karmic weight of Cubness exists.  It is real, no matter how many new managers, coaches, and players deny it in their introductory press conferences.

The Tribune reports that Sweet Uncle Lou will be making one of his legendary lineup changes. From this point forward, until Alfonso Soriano returns from what can best be described as a broken hand, Koss-Kay Fook-ooh-dough-may will be batting leadoff. At least, that's how it'll be until Piniella changes his mind, as Goat Friend Paul Sullivan notes in his most recent blog.

Some people are shocked to see Fukudome in the leadoff spot, as it will be a waste of his epic power*. Not to mention the fact that Fooky doesn't draw many walks**, nor does he have much speed***. Point of fact, it makes absolutely no sense at all****, and I will be sending a letter seething with frustration and disgust to the Cubs in order to voice - you guessed it - my frustration and disgust*****. Hmm, is anybody else seeing stars in this paragraph?

(*5 homeruns on pace for 12.
**On pace for 104, OBP of .403
***6 steals in 8 attempts, on pace for 14
****It makes total sense
*****I'll be offering them up my firstborn in a Contract Format letter if they pledge to keep that foreign bloke there all year long)

In other shocking news that makes total sense, it turns out that the Cardinals suck, and, yes, I'm feeling very silly tonight. I shall go celebrate it by watching Futurama and falling asleep at 8:10.*

(*My nickname is Captain Excitement**
**It used to be Admiral Excitement, but I got demoted)

One last thought - I was on Jon Miller's show today, but I got so caught up at work doing the job they pay me for that I didn't have time to blog about it.  Which is okay, because Jon totally schooled me live on air when I said "I haven't caluclated it since the game last night, but I think the Cubs are on pace for 103 or 104 games," to which Jon replied "well, the Cubs haven't played since last night," for which I wept live on the air.  Yep, that's me, radio gold.