Behold, the destruction or salvation of the 2010 Chicago Cubs.  Carlos Marmol is the key.  In a bullpen rife with weakness, with no other option available, Jim Hendry is putting all of his closer eggs into Marmol's basket.  Looking purely at his stuff, it is evident that Carlos is the right choice to make.  He is at times unhittable.  In 307.2 career innings of work, Marmol has surrendered a mere 195 hits.  That's freaking ridiculous.

But he is also at times unable to hit the strike zone.  His BB/9 ratio went up dramatically between 2008 and 2009 (from a respectable 4.2 per 9 innings to a terrifying 7.9 per 9 last year).  In other words, up until 2009 Marmol was effective, but last year he was effectively wild.  This is a risky scenario for a guy who's expected to end each game he pitches in.  There aren't many pitchers I can think of who had long, successful careers while walking 7.9 batters per 9 innings of work.

If Carlos is able to face down his pitching demons and regularly locate the strike zone, then I anticipate that he will have an outstanding season and the Cubs will be that much more likely to compete successfully.  But if he falls, so fall the Cubs.  There's just nobody else in the bullpen who can assume that role, and Jim Hendry is unlikely to pull a trade for anybody who can.

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The Cubs and Carlos Marmol met halfway today and agreed to a 2010 contract worth around $2.1 million.

In my mind, this is fantastic news.  The arbitration process would have done nothing good for the team or for the player.  Marmol has one of the top three nastiest sliders in all of sports; but last year he frequently lost concentration, walked a ton of men, and also hit a ton as well.  There is plain old wild - an Andy Pratt-esque character, that comes and goes just as quickly.  There is effectively wild - like Kerry Wood, which is usually accompanied by a 100 mph fastball that hurts people when it hits them. 

Carlos Marmol entered his own wild category last year.  Not since Mitch Williams have I seen a guy dig himself more holes, then fill them back in more often than not.  I believe that, as he becomes more mature, that Marmol will harness his stuff and learn to focus on the task at hand.  By all accounts from the beat writers, he is a very immature man, and has nowhere to go but up in that category.  Thus, he still has a tremendous amount of unrealized potential.

He knows that; his agent knows that, and the Cubs know that.  But in an arb hearing, by design, there will be conflict.  Marmol is a very emotional guy, and I don't think he wants to hear about his shortcomings, and how far he needs to go before he truly deserves big money.  He more than likely thinks he deserves it now - he is the closer for the Chicago Cubs, for pete's sake! 

On the other side, obviously Jim Hendry has NEVER officiated an arbitration situation - the last Cubs arb hearing involved Mark Grace!  It is safe to assume that Hendry may be a person who avoids conflict, which is a fine human trait; yet, as the General Manager, perhaps it is a positive thing to call the players' bluff from time to time.  It might in the long run serve as an aid to determining the true worth of your players.

Ryan Theriot is still far apart from the Cubs, and most likely will become the first Cubs arbitration case since Grace.  I for one welcome that particular opportunity.  Theriot is a decent second baseman, playing shortstop, he hits for a high average, but still ends up with a weak OPS, he supposedly adds 'intangibles' to his club, yet he is the dumbest Cubs baserunner now that Ronny Cedeno is carving divots in basepaths elsewhere.

I think an arb hearing will be constructive for the Cubs and The Riot.  He's a tough enough boy to deal with the criticism; in fact, it may not hurt for him to hear it. If he can cut down the mental mistakes in his game, he may end up with a long, productive career.  He is over 30 years old, while Marmol is a young 27.  Both men, if all goes well, will get Paid in this league. 

But I am not yet ready to hear about a man bursting into tears at an arb hearing.  Hooray for the Cubs and Marmol for reaching an agreement before that happened.

I don't know about the rest of you, but I can't figure out Carlos Marmol. There probably isn't a more frustrating player on the entire club. For two years, Marmol was lights out and couldn't be hit. Well, he still can't be hit, but now he just walks batters.

Take a look at the numbers:

In 74 innings, Marmol only gave up a 43 hits. That's pretty impressive.

It gets better. Marmol punched out 93 batters for an 11.91 K/9 ratio. That's just nuts, I mean his stuff is so good even during a bad year for him, he still leads the team in K/9.

Riddle me this, how does a man that struck out 93 and only gave up 43 hits end up with an 1.46 WHIP?

It doesn't seem possible. His H/IP was a good .581, which should have led to an easy good WHIP, but sadly it did not, because 2009 Carlos Marmol forgot how to throw strikes until the bases were loaded. Marmol ended up walking 65 batters.

I'll write that again......65! That's almost one an inning, which is just insane with his stuff. Only two Cubs had more walks. Rich Harden had 68 (141 IP), and Carlos Zambrano 78 (169 IP). A reliever  can't be ahead of all of your other starters in walks. I mean, come on, Ryan Dempster had 65 in 200 IP.

Marmol seems to be the closer in waiting for 2010, but we all thought that in 2009 and look what happened. I think the only thing that keeps that from happening this year would be bringing in a guy like Billy Wagner, which I'm not saying we should do.

Marmol needs to take the winter and find his release point again, because if he does the Cubs have a lights out closer in 2010, which is something the Cubs really need.

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Randy Wells joined today the increasingly full list of Cub starters who struggle to get out of the 4th inning, although the Cubs still almost managed to escape with a win.  Our heroes were down 5 runs when, in the middle innings they launched a Geovany Soto-led charge. 

The Cubs catcher hit 2 RBI-scoring doubles in back-to-back innings, which -- along with run-contributing hits by Aramis Ramirez and Bobby Scales -- tied the game at 5 until the 9th inning.  That was when Carlos Marmol stepped in and proceeded to cough, hack, and vomit up the lead after having gotten the first 2 outs of the inning via a double play.  It was at that point that Marmol walked Johnny Gomes and Kevin Barker, surrendered a 2-run double to Drew Sutton, and to add injury to insult plunked Paul Janish.  And that was the way it ended, with Carlos Marmol doing a Walk of Shame off the mound after he managed to get a strikeout to end the inning.

On a side note, I have to admit that sometimes I want to read Dusty Baker's excuses as to why the Reds have sucked so badly these last few years.  But really, I can't do it.  I just can't bring myself to read his words. Still, if you're a Reds fan and you've stumbled across this website, (here are a few Google keywords to help you get here -- Dusty Baker sucks, Dusty Baker is a fraud, Dusty Baker should be fired, how Dusty Baker tricked the Reds into hiring him, hot MILFS in wild action with a Dusty Baker look-alike) you should tell me if any of the following sounds familiar:

• We just don't have the horses, dude.
• I'm not saying that the ownership hasn't got me some good players, but in a league with the Cubs and Cardinals they need to open up the wallet a bit ... dude.
• I'm sure we've got some young, talented players here who could help us win.  But baseball is an earn it game, dude, not a give it game.  I can't just give those guys a job.  I used to play with Hank Aaron, and it took me a long time to crack that same lineup as him, dude.  Anyway, I gotta give my guys (aka: the veterans on the team) their at bats so they can make their bonuses, but if these kids can earn their way into the lineup (magically without getting actual play time) then you bet I'll play them.
• We never had a lot of young talent in San Francisco or Chicago, it was always just a good group of veterans.  That's why I got this unfair reputation of not starting rookies, dude.

And that's Dusty Speak 101 for you right there.  Reds fans, we pity you, honestly.  We wouldn't wish Dusty Baker on our worst enemies ... not even the White Sox/Cardinals.

Really, there were five key players in tonight's win over the Reds.

First off, we had the Cubs' True Ace, the Second Son of God, Randy Wells.

Last time out, Cub fans were hoping Randy could pitch a good number of innings since the bullpen had been worked so hard in the few games before. This time, Cub fans found themselves in exactly the same place.

Last time, Wells responded by throwing eight innings. Tonight, he got through 7.1 innings pitched, before Key Player #2 John Grabow came on to get an inning-ending double play ball (after hitting a batter, if I remember correctly).

Perhaps the best synonym for "ace" that defines Randy Wells these days is "stopper." When the Cubs have really needed a shutdown performance, a bunch of innings while holding the opposition's offense in check, Randy's given it to them. I think in the postgame press conference, Lou himself posed a question, which was something to the effect of: "Where would we be without this guy?" It's a pretty scary question, actually.

Wells and Grabow covered innings one-thru-eight on the mound. Before we talk about the pitching in the ninth, let's talk about the two Cub hitters with RBIs this evening.

First off, kudos to Mike Fontenot (KP #3). Mike was able to put a good swing on a Aaron Harang fastball with two men on, giving the Cubs a nice 3-0 lead that would end up being enough to win the game tonight. Good to see, indeed.

Also, Derrek Lee (KP #4) was credited with an RBI tonight. His double chased Aaron Harang from the mound, and gave the team even more cushion in the ninth inning.

Speaking of the ninth, let's get back to the pitching. The reliever Piniella went with to close out tonight's win was Carlos Marmol (KP #5), as Kevin Gregg was suffering from a little bit of a dead arm (a completely reasonable response to having thrown 38 pitches two nights before, and 10 the day after that).

Personally, I was kinda hoping he'd keep Grabow in for another hitter, just to see if he could get some additional outs before going with the Human Walkman. But with the Walkman he went, and so the fun began.

Marmol walked the leadoff guy, and gave up a single as well before eventually facing Alex Gonzalez with two men on. In what ended up being an 11-pitch at-bat, Carlos hung about five sliders to Gonzalez (this is by no means an exaggeration--at least five breaking pitches were thrown middle-up). Gonzalez fouled four of them off, before making Carlos pay on the fifth.

Fortunately, Willy Tavares sucks really hard, and Carlos was able to escape the jam with the next batter and preserve the win. But man, was it fun in the meantime!

At the end of the day, the Cubs are back in first place. Cool!

Go Cubs.

The obvious reason for why this game went to crap had to do with Carlos Marmol walking two Marlin batters in the bottom of the 8th inning. If he gets outs, maybe we go a little longer, maybe the Cubs score later on, and so on and so forth.

But really, the offense wasn't exactly killing the ball tonight either. I don't know how many additional outs the Cubs would have needed to give the hitters enough time to take the lead. The Cubs were 1-for-12 at the top of the line-up, with Derrek Lee collecting the only hit among the first three Cub hitters.

Volstad was good. All we could muster off of him was a bloop and a blast, and that happened relatively late in the game.

For the Cubs, Harden was decent; 11 Ks is awesome, but five innings is not. Harden also gave up an RBI double to the opposing pitcher.

On a positive note, John Grabow's debut went well. He did walk a batter, but retired the next three Marlins hitters he faced.

In the end, I'm chalking this one up as an off night for the offense. Let's put some more pressure on the starting pitcher in tomorrow's game.

Go Cubs.

We might go graphic-less tonight because Kurt is getting married. Happens, I guess.

None of today's pitchers were particularly effective. Sucks. Dempster threw 104 pitches, 55 for strikes. That means he threw a lot of balls--49, to be exact. (See what I did there? Subtraction is fun!)

I guess the hitting was pretty good, though. Remember that game where the Cubs had eleven hits, seven walks, and three runs? In today's game, the Cubs had fewer hits, less than half the walks--and more than twice the runs. Something about timely hitting, maybe, since the Cubs only had one extra-base hit (a double from Soriano).

At least Marmol didn't walk anybody? Eh. Whatever.

Congratulations, Kurt. Go Cubs!

^{Brian Moehler (0-2, 8.44 ERA) vs. Rich Harden (4-1, 4.54 ERA)}

Story Lines
I spent a good hour writing a post this morning that I promptly lost when trying to add the graphic to the left. So, this is going to be a lot shorter than I wanted this morning.

There are a few things that caught me eye yesterday about Cecil Cooper, who might be the next great Dusty Baker. After the Astros scored four runs to the tie the game, they had runners on first and second with no outs. What does Cecil do? Well, he lets Jason Michaels swing away and the Cubs get out of it without further damage.

Then, in the bottom of the 9th after Bobby Scales moved to second on the sac-bunt, Cecil decides to pitch to Alfonso Soriano instead of pitching to Ryan Theriot. I know Theriot has five home runs this month, but you have to put the double play in order. Anyway, lets move on.

Milton Bradley makes his return today after his one-game suspension. Milton was starting to hit when he had to sit this week, and he hasn't played since Wednesday. Hopefully he isn't rusty from the lack of playing time.

Who's Hot
Derrek Lee - this might be a little early, but he was 1-for-3 with a walk yesterday, including putting the Cubs pu 1-0. He looked better yesterday, but he really doesn't deserve to be in the hot section. It has been a long year for Derrek, so I'm happy to see him do anything positive.

Micah Hoffpauir - Well, if Derrek Lee winds up on the DL at some point, I'm pretty sure the Hoff will do better than Phil Nevin a few years ago. He had a huge two-run home run yesterady that gave the Cubs a 3-0 lead at the time.

Angel Guzman and Carlos Marmol - they both looked really strong yesterday, the rest of the bullpen not so much.

Who's Not
Kevin Gregg and Aaron Heilman - That brings us to the 9th inning. These two were pretty bad yesterday, but Lou said that Gregg would be out there again today if the there was a save situation.

Mike Fontenot - I have a feeling that Mike Fontenot might be losing some playing time. He was 0-for-4 yesterday, and hasn't shown any signs of breaking out.

Conclusions
The Cubs really should pick up their sixth straight win today, but crazy things happen in baseball. The Cubs are all along in second place, and could be in first place tomorrow if they win and the Brewers lose.

Woo, read this blog title again. Sounds pretty heavy.

Quick Links

• 2008 Season Recap: Carlos Marmol
• Nobody Expects the Dutch
• Closing is 80 Percent Mental, 40 Percent Physical
• Closers, Ex-Govs, and Caps. Oh my.

Can you believe the season is only a day away? I don’t know about you, but this has been the longest spring ever. So, I have the honor of second to last player preview, unless we decided to look at the batboys or David Patton, if he makes the team. Until then, lets take a look at another bullpen arm.

Coming into this season, everybody thought (including me) that Carlos Marmol would be the closer for the Cubs. Well, a funny thing happened on the way to Marmol’s accession to the top spot in the pen. After hedging about joining the World Baseball Classic, Marmol pitched for the Dominican, where he eventually blew a save against the Netherlands. The Netherlands? That’s almost as bad as the Pirates losing to community college in Spring Training (which did happen).

The one thing that I love about Lou Pinella is that he wants competition in Spring Training. For the most part, it works. Guys like Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot are living proof. This year he opened up the closer’s role, and Kevin Gregg stepped up to challenge Marmol. With WBC and a spotty spring, Lou chose Gregg, who hasn’t given up a run all spring. Marmol’s been wild this spring, hitting five and walking two. That’s led to his 4.35 ERA. We can only hope that the Netherlands incident hasn’t carried over to the Cubs.

Marmol has been a workhorse for two seasons, and I’m convinced that his exploits are a major reason the Cubs are two time NL Central Division Champions. In the past two seasons, Marmol has thrown 156 2/3 innings, while striking out 210 with his slider. There are times where he relies on the slider too much, and it has got him in trouble at times when he couldn’t locate his fastball. Last season, he only allowed 40 hits in 87 1/3 innings, which translates into an .0927 WHIP. It just doesn’t get much better than that.

Still, with all those numbers, I’m glad Lou gave the closer spot to Gregg. Now, he can continue to use Marmol in the situations where the Cubs need a strikeout or two innings of relief. That being said, Lou does need to balance him out a little bit, because he has looked less than sharp at times. The Cubs have a serious problem, and little depth if Marmol isn’t lights out again this season, but I’m not worried (well, at least not yet).