So - and stop me if you've heard this already - but there's a rumor floating around baseball that the Cubs are stealing signs.

First of all, I’m convinced that this is great and wonderful. Can you name the last time a Cubs team was good enough to where they could be accused of any sort of competitive advantage, cheating or otherwise?

That’s what I thought.

And now, let’s get this out of the way: stealing signs happens all the time in baseball. Possibly one of the most famous home runs in baseball history came from a stolen sign. And go ahead and check the official rules of baseball and find the part where stealing signs is prohibited. I’ll save you the trouble and tell you it isn’t there. Reportedly MLB put out an official memorandum prohibiting stealing signs by electronic means. But if the Cubs have a guy standing in the scoreboard and figuring out the signs with a pair of binoculars, that’s not technically against the rules of baseball.

I have read today, from dozens of Cubs fans, protestations that its “ridiculous” or “absurd” – it isn’t. It’s entirely possible. Hell, it could even be likely. It’s certainly not the first time that the Cubs have been accused of this sort of thing.

At the same time, the reason being offered for the suspicion is ridiculous. The Cubs, heading into tonight, were producing 6.46 runs per game on offense at home, compared to 4.39 runs per game on the road. Yeah, they’re tacking on two runs per game by stealing signs. If stealing signs was that effective, you’d have to fire the GM of every team that wasn't trying to steal signs. Meanwhile, Cubs pitchers are allowing 3.85 runs per game at home, and 3.85 runs per game at home - perhaps even a neater trick than what the offense is doing, given that Wrigley is a hitter's park. Are Cubs pitchers stealing their own signs?

I think the problem is the insistence that something has to have an explanation. Sometimes flukes occur. (Sour grapes probably also helps.) I tend to think that, outside of the usual home field advantage, the massive split the Cubs are showing this season is probably a fluke, an artifact of chance.