The current state of the Cubs:

All you really need to know is that Aramis Ramirez is hitting mistakes again.

At the beginning of the year, he wasn't.  He wasn't hitting anything.  Neither was Derrek Lee.  And outside of the couple of times our bullpen blew leads early in the season, and the other night with Marmol, this was pretty much the story of the year.  Guys would get on base and Lee and Ramirez would strand them.  Over and over again.

Now Ramirez has healed, and is hitting like he always has, and a few days after that, so has Lee and Soto.  The word is that Lee is the clubhouse leader on the Cubs, and that is unfortunate because not only does he not have the personality to truly lead, he is also largely irrelevant offensively.

He has had two monster years with us, 2005 and 2009.  The Cubs finished below .500 both years.  Ramirez has had big years in 2004, 2007 and 2008, all winning years.  As Ramirez goes, so does the Cubs offense.  There is a greater statistical correlation as well as a practical correlation between what Ramirez contributes and what Lee contributes in terms of offense-to-wins.  This is what makes teammates sit up and listen, and only if Aramis could back up his practical relevance with words.

But he chooses to defer, like he did after each of the playoff sweeps, and this is why I went bat feces when he did.  Ramirez SHOULD lead the Chicago Cubs.  When he hits, we win.  As long as he keeps it up, we should have a winning second half, even though the decent starting pitching is beginning to falter.

Lou's retirement announcement, and why we are yawning

This was the biggest non-announcement ever.  Of course Lou is retiring.  Some say he retired 2 years ago.  He did it so people will quit asking him.  Some say he has earned the right to finish this year on his terms, and he will.  I'm not one of them, but there is the sentimental side of me who will give the man his respect.

Besides, Crane Kenney and Jim Hendry aren't going anywhere, so even if they got to choose a new man this afternoon, he would be no better than the last two guys they hired.

There seems to be no accountability in this organization.  Lou has the freedom to do one wild, crazy move after another, and when he is asked to explain himself, he either stutters and/or gets testy.  Jim has developed a decent drafting mechanism, and he is the king of the desperation trade and the fire-sale steals, but he has never made a good value-for-value straight trade in his whole tenure.  Not to mention, of course, his poor free-agent record, as well as his aversion to conflict, which has resulted in avoidance of arbitration - and overpaying players.

But, neither one of these guys can say they have done their job as badly as the Tribune holdover, Crane Kenney.  What exactly DOES he do?  How is the Triangle building doing?  How about the Great Wrigley Field reclamation?  What great marketing angles have we exploited lately?  When can we expect to watch the Cubs Network?  When Jim Hendry sucks, who calls him on it?  And if Hendry were to get fired, who would pick the next guy?

A corporate lawyer with no baseball background?

I want a baseball man put in Kenney's place.  Someone who can evaluate Hendry fairly, and determine if he is the man or not.  A new manager needs to be found.  Do we do the popular thing and stick Ryno in there?  Is Joe Girardi the guy?  How about Bob Brenly or Alan Trammel?  I heard Joe Torre mentioned?  Who do you choose?  They all have their own qualities.

There needs to be a organizational direction, which is developed and regulated by the President (the Kenney position), communicated throughout the competitive organization by the GM, and implemented on the field by the manager.  Depending on that direction, it could be Brenly, Torre, Ryno, Girardi, the frozen head of Ted Williams...but we need a direction first, and Kenney is not the guy to set it.

The President needs to see the middling-to-slightly above average health of the farm system, as well as the capabilities of what I am calling the Core of the 2011 Cubs, the guys who will definitely be here.

Soriano, Byrd, Marmol, Dempster, Soto, Ramirez, Castro.  Everyone else, even Zambrano, I could see a scenario where they may not be here next year.  These seven individuals will be, and the direction starts with what we are going to surround these seven guys with.

I don't know if Hendry is or isn't that guy.  I'd really like a real baseball man to evaluate what he has done.  I don't like his results, myself, but then again, he hasn't had much to work with from above.  That's the biggest question going forward for us.

Gonna have to make this a short one after a long night of Lost. The Cubs had a 5-2 week, their best week of the year and their first winning week since Week Four when they were 4-3. The Rockies were a game over .500 entering their series with the Cubs, which means the Cubs played three above average teams and managed to sweep a series, split a series, and win another. The last four games were one-run affairs, and it was nice to see the Cubs on the positive side of a couple close decisions.

Ryno of the Week: If there's one thing I hate, it's being repetitive. But even though the one thing I hate is being repetitive, this week's winner is the same as last week's: Sean Marshall. The 6'7 lefty had two wins and two holds, and lowered his ERA from 2.46 to 2.01 in the process. In the month of May, he's 4-0 with a 0.79 ERA. I shudder to think where the Cubs would be without him this year.

I have to give special props to some great offensive performances as well: Starlin Castro had at least one hit in all seven games en route to an 11-for-29 week with five RBI and four runs. And in limited duty, Tyler Colvin went 6-for-11 with four runs and two RBI.

Honorable mentions: Carlos Silva, Alfonso Soriano

Goat of the Week: This is a tough one, but I'm going to go with John Grabow. He appeared in four games this week and was very consistent--he allowed at least one run in every outing. He also walked five guys in just 3.1 innings, and had a 10.80 ERA. He is completely and utterly useless.

I'm giving Aramis Ramirez a pass this week only because one of his two hits directly resulted in the Cubs winning a game. But as my dad said, he's fast-approaching permanent Goat of the Week status; he was 2-for-18 with seven strikeouts. Here's a stat that will bring a tear to your eye even if none of those Lost montages did: Ramirez has struck out 40 times this year; in 2006 he played 157 games and struck out 63 times. WHAT IS GOING ON WITH HIM?

Dishonorable mentions: Geovany Soto, Derrek Lee

Bradon writes at Wait Til This Year, an awesome Cubs blog

Nice and important win. Cubs take a 4 run lead in the first inning on a few dinks and then a Soriano blast and they hold it thru a less than stellar Carlos Silva and some shaky middle relief. This is the first time the Cubs have pitched both John Grabow and Bob Howry in the same game and they still managed to win!

Soriano made a nice, slightly awkward, diving catch but also saved a run when the Rangers attempted a comeback in the seventh on a double by Ian Kinsler, holding Elvus Andrus, who runs like the wind, at third base. That kept the score 5-4 and some great pitching by Sean Marshall and Carlos Marmol, they managed to keep it that way.

With the win and losses by both the Cardinals and the Reds, the Cubs have parlayed a surprising 3-2 road trip into a 4.5 game deficit in the central. Day off tomorrow. Let's relish all the big close game wins for the Cubs and get ready for a tough Dodgers series on Tuesday.

Since the greatness that is The Cubs Management Think Tank can't think of anything better, allow me to hit you with some knowledge: the foolproof, sure-to-work Cubs Rotation Attack Plan for Starters (CRAPS).

Note: This idea is nowhere close to original.

Let's call Andrew Cashner ready-to-go as a big league starter. And we know Sean Marshall has started previously as well. So if we add those two guys, plus Everyone Loves Carlos Zambrano, to our current rotation, we have eight dudes that can go multiple innings.

Next, let's group those eight into two four-man camps: hosses and non-hosses. Hosses are guys who can definitely throw 100+ quality pitches a game. Demp and Z are locks for this group, and in my humble opinion Wells and Lilly are the next best candidates. By default, that puts Silva, Gorz, Marsh, and Cash in our non-hoss group.

Finally, the pairings:

Dempster - Marshall
Lilly - Silva
Wells - Gorzelanny
Zambrano - Cashner

The first three pairings match righties with lefties, while the last one gives Cashner the hossiest of hosses on which to rely for his appearances.

I think you can see where I'm going with this: every fourth day, we start with a hoss, cut him off in the 85-90 pitch range, and then hand over the next two to four innings to our non-hoss. Out in the 'pen, you of course have Marmol, and then either two or three other guys to serve basically as ROOGYs and LOOGYs for the transition from one starter to the other.

This would work, right?

Despite a win to finish out the week (which I was able to witness in person), the Cubs lost two more series in the last seven days. They've won three series this year and lost nine. It's like people always say: just win one of out of every three and you'll be in good shape at the end of the season. No wait, that doesn't sound right.

The Cubs needed two nail-biter 4-3 victories to keep from getting swept in back-to-back series and to stave off an to 0-6 record against the Pirates this year, a team they lost to eight times the last two years combined. The 2-4 week leaves them six games under .500 with three teams ahead of them in the division. At the top of the heap is a team that wears red but not the one you'd expect: Dusty Baker's Reds. Incidentally, the Cubs have scored just three fewer runs than the Reds and have a better ERA. Either the Reds are over-performing, the Cubs are under-performing, or both.

Here's the other good news: though it may have felt like 50, the Cubs were outscored by only five runs in the last two series. They lost two one-run games and also a two-run decision as they failed to turn the corner offensively. While it's good they're not getting blown out, their tendency to lose pretty much every close game they play is immensely frustrating and the reason for the title of today's post. Why, Cubs? Why must you torture us?

They still have two more games at Wrigley to try to get momentum on their side before hitting the road again.

Ryno of the Week: Tom Gorzelanny went 1-for-2 at the plate, and he was pretty much the Cubs' offensive star. Okay, okay, Soriano did go 8-for-22 with five RBI, which ain't bad. But Sean Marshall gets the nod this week after he earned a hold and a win, playing an instrumental role in both of the Cubs' wins. The man quietly goes about his business every year--he has a 2.45 ERA and a miniscule 0.87 WHIP, which would be the lowest in the league if he had logged enough innings to qualify.

Honorable mention: Carlos Silva

Goat of the Week: Though I feel badly for him after he got plunked on the elbow and had to miss Sunday's game, Ryan Theriot was just 3-for-17 last week with no walks. He also had a chance to tie Saturday's game in the ninth inning, needing only a fly ball to do so. Instead, he struck out.

Dishonorable mention: Carlos Zambrano

Brandon also writes at Wait 'til this year!  Check him out over there!

Plenty of mistakes in this one. Let's see if we can identify all of them, starting chronologically from the start of the game.

In the top of the first, the first three Cub hitters reached base, giving our so-called "RBI guys" a golden opportunity to stake the team to an early lead.

Mistakes #1 and #2 - Aramis Ramirez and Marlon Byrd each fail to plate the runner from third with less than two outs.

I'm not expecting a grand slam every time we load the bases. Heck, I understand that even the best hitters fail to get a hit 60% of the time. But when you're as talented a hitter as Aramis Ramirez, facing a rookie pitcher in Mike Leake, you've got to find a way to get the ball to the outfield and score your leadoff man from first. The exact same notion applies for Marlon Byrd, as well -- woulda loved a base hit, but failing to generate a productive out is unprofessional, and inexcusable.

We'll talk more later about the collective failings of the middle-of-the-order guys eventually, but for now let's fast forward to the bottom of the seventh, with the Cubs leading 1-0 and Tom Gorzelanny having just allowed a couple of base runners.

Mistake #3 - Alfonso Soriano fails to catch a fly ball to left field with runners on first and second.

What makes the error worse is that I know a guy who could've made that play, so if Soriano's gonna strikeout twice a game and fail to register a hit anyway, why not put Colvin in left after the sixth inning of every close game? Maybe we'll see that happen soon. Fortunately, after Miguel Cairo got lucky and knocked in one run, this happened:

Mistake #4 - Dusty Baker decides to put in Jay Bruce to pinch hit against lefty Sean Marshall.

Okay, not a Cub mistake. But had to be noted. In Dusty we trusty!!!!!

Marshall would take advantage, striking Bruce out. He'd then strike out the right-handed Drew Stubbs, making an EXTREMELY STRONG CASE for his being named the primary set-up man in the Cub bullpen.

To the bottom of the eighth we go. After allowing a couple of singles,

Mistake #5 - John Grabow issues a four pitch walk to Scott Rolen.

A walk would be one thing (admittedly still the type of thing you would call "bad"). But you don't even have one good strike in you to throw to a .235-hitting old guy? Furthermore, there are good balls and there are bad balls (that's what she said), and nothing John Grabow threw was anywhere close to the plate. As a result, Grabow himself made an EXTREMELY STRONG CASE for being removed from high leverage situations.

This next one is debatable, but I'm gonna go ahead and give it its own bold-faced numerical entry:

Mistake #6 - With the bases loaded and one out, Lou Piniella brings in the young Esmailin Caridad to try to get two outs.

Yes, Grabow had given some indication that he had lost control of the strike zone in the previous at-bat. But I'd still consider him to have a better handle on throwing strikes than the kid who just got up from the bench in the 'pen. I say, Grabow created the mess, why not give him a chance to get out of it? And with Jeff Samardzija warming up in the 'pen at the time, it wasn't like Lou was expecting to come out of the inning with a tie anyway.

As it happened, Caridad walked a run in, and then allowed a sacrifice fly, giving the Reds their second and third runs on the day. The rest was history.

Any lessons learned? I suppose so.

First,I'd advocate to have Soriano pulled after the sixth inning of any low-scoring, close game. Let him swing away early on, but if the pitchers are on Soriano is a sure out anyway (this just in: the Fonz swings at misses at low-and-away breaking pitches that are outside the zone).

Second: I realize we're only six games in, but I can already tell you who I want pitching in the eighth inning when the Cubs have a lead of three or fewer runs. Hint: his name starts with S and rhymes with Sean. Maybe he's at a disadvantage against righties, but I can tell you that as of today, Caridad and Grabow aren't ready to set Marmol up.

(Furthermore, I'm convinced that Grabow never will be. I'm sure he'll be able to get plenty of outs in low-leverage situations this season, but when he needs a strikeout late in the game I just don't know what pitch he has in his repertoire that he can throw to get it.)

And finally, for the final lesson of the weekend, let's give credit where it's due. The Cubs' starting pitching has been pretty darn solid so far, including today's K-tastic outing from Tom Gorzelanny. Seven strikeouts, two walks, four hits -- control like that is going to keep runs off the board, as it did today, with zero earned runs allowed by Gorzo.

It's impossible to justify ignoring Z's opening day masterpiece, but suppose you could do so, just for fun, and you'd have five real good performances from five different starters. So that's nice.

The Cubs head home with a 2-4 record to host the Milwaukee Brewers. Let's hope the fourth, fifth, and sixth hitters (hitting .130, .105, and .143 respectively) get going, and that Marshall gets a chance to set Marmol up in our next close game.

Go Cubs!

I chose for Marshall the nickname "Doghouse," because at this point I doubt that Lou Piniella would trust him with the keys to his car. 

It's not that Marshall's been bad for the Cubs.  In fact, he posted a 3.23 ERA in 39.0 innings of relief last year, while racking up 7 holds.  He did his job, and he did it well enough to be back in 2010, hopefully as a bright spot in an otherwise murky bullpen. 

Over the span of his tumultuous career in Chicago, Marshall's made 134 appearances, including 59 lackluster starts.  He's won 19, lost 29, and posted a mediocre ERA of 4.55 while allowing 390 hits and 149 walks in 379.2 innings of work.  None of those stats are bad enough to hate him, nor are they good enough to expect success from him.

Chances are, if Piniella uses Marshall correctly in 2010, the Cubs lefty will toss between 50 and 60 innings of work, serving not as the LOOGY (lefties batted .243 against him, which is not good enough to warrant that role) but as a standard 5th/6th inning guy.  What Lou should not do is use Sean Marshall in a starter's role. 

I nicknamed him Doghouse, but he's still a bullpen option I'd trust over most of the other guys out there.   He just as easily could be renamed "Reliable," or perhaps "Regular" (or "Depends").  Let's hope for the former, for many reasons.

AJ's take:

The thing that makes Marshall so interesting to me is his mix of pitches. For example, did you know only 21% of his pitches thrown last year were a straight-up fastball? In contrast, nearly a third of his pitches were curve balls.

Marshall doesn't throw a fastball very often because he doesn't throw very hard. He averaged 87mph on it last year. What's worse, the vast majority of his pitches were thrown within 6mph of each other, between 81 and 87. Only his curve ball generates significant difference in velocity, which he throws at 71.

I'm afraid that, given his repertoire, it will be difficult for Marshall to ever make it through a major league line-up more than twice. But given the status of Lilly's shoulder, he may be asked to do that a few times at the beginning of the season. I bet he's the fifth starter through April, which'll give him something like three starts for the month. From there, who knows?

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In 2009, behind the reliable arm of Ted Lilly was a group of left handed would-be starters of modest ability and some history of
success.  Both Sean Marshall and Tom Gorzelanny would start games for the Cubs in '09 to middling degrees of success, and while either probably deserve their own independent article in this series we have elected to lump them together as one.

First, Sean Marshall.

Marshall has been described by Goat Friend Jon Miller as a pitcher without enough stuff to really be an effective starter, and he's probably right.  Sean has the tendency to succeed in first-outings, but as a starter he loses effectiveness as the season progresses.  In '09, Marshall was 2-5 with a 5.24 ERA in 9 starts and he lost his gig fairly early into the year.

He segued that into 46 respectable outings as a reliever, where he posted an ERA of 3.23.  He's not a justifiable LOOGY - even though his AVG against lefties was 40 points lower than his AVG against righties - but he has proven yet again that he's deserving of a major league roster spot so long as he's actually used right.  But Piniella would be better of burning the hair off his own scalp than try Marshall as a starter again in 10.  Luckily he won't have to.

Tom Gorzelanny is best remembered for his heart-warming role in the movie Goonies, as well as his cameo appearance at the end of Weird Science.  But as the Cubs he proved to be a usually-reliable starting pitcher who has earned the chance to pitch in the rotation in 2010. Naturally, the stats do not tell the full story.

As a Cub, Gorzelanny started in 7 games.  In 5 of those 7 games, he went 5 or more innings and held his opponents to 2 or fewer earned runs.  In those other 2 games, he got his ass lit on fire.  Against the Rockies and the D-Backs he looked about as bad as Gene Simmons minus the makeup.  Against everybody else, he pitched like a bad-ass in full-blown KISS garb blasting Love Gun all over the cheering, throbbing crowd.  (Wait, what?)

So, which Gorzo is the real one?  Can we really play that game of ignoring bad starts to support our ill-conceived opinion?  The answer to the second question is no, and I have no idea regarding the answer to the first.  If Gorzo is the 5th starter on the '10 Cubs, Lou's crew will survive, but he is not likely a full season answer.  His '09 numbers just don't support dramatic success next year.

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^{Brian Moehler (8-9, 5.26 ERA) vs. Randy Wells (9-7, 3.06 ERA)}

Story Lines

The Cubs are still playing bad, but lets take a look at the fifth part of our series looking at the 2010 Chicago Cubs.

Starting Pitcher - No. 5 Starter (??????????)

Contract 2009: 7 Million

Contract 2010: ????????

Stats 2009: 8-8, 4.19 ERA in 129 innings. 152/58 K/BB with a 1.29 WHIP

The big question is who is the fifth starter in the Cubs rotation. Granted, Randy Wells is really that guy this year, the Cubs don't have a 5th pitcher for the next season. Do the Cubs resign Rich Harden or do they let Sean Marshall have another shot at starting? Harden will probably be better, but of course there are health concerns there, and Marshall has been up and down.

If the Cubs sign Harden to a one-year deal it could be about 10 million, so the Cubs might be less than willing to give that kind of money.

Running Totals
2010 Payroll: 44.8 Million (4 Starting Pitchers)
2010 Average: 12.2 Million a player

Who's Hot

Anybody playing the Cubs.

Who's Not

The Cubs

Conclusions

The Cubs have been just about impossible to watch this season, and it doesn't seem to be getting any better. Here's hoping for a change of luck tonight.

Lou Piniella finally figured out how to overcome his bullpen troubles: pray for rain.

One thing for sure - based on the last two games, the Cubs offense has finally revitalized a little.  In a rain-soaked (and shortened) game, the Cubs scored 6 in 5 innings.  Every Cubs regular got on base at least once except Ryan Freel, while the Questionable Quartet -- or at least, the half that played -- were key contributors to the offense.

Milton Bradley was 0 for 1 with 2 walks and a run scored and Mike Fontenot went 2 for 3, raising his AVG back up to .219 (hey, we'll take it).

Also, Kosuke Fukudome continues to be on pace to out-slug his '07 self, after hitting his 5th homerun of the year in the 1st. 

Sean Marshall, meanwhile, continues to prove that he was a good choice to start.  He got a cheap Complete Game (although I suspect they won't "count" it as such in his stats), dropped his ERA to 3.70, and struck out 6.

The Cubs play in the rubber game today -- something we haven't been able to look forward to in a long, long time.