Taking stock at the All-Star Break, Part I of Maybe More Than One Part
Time to take stock, ladies and gentlemen. And I’m sure the #1 question on your mind is, what does Ryan Theriot have to do to make me stop treating him the way the Germans treat the French? (I know this because you all told me so.) And I should get around to answering that question sooner or later. Okay, so… later or later, really. But there’s some other matters to tend to first.
The least popular question on the list is, “Who is the best Cub?” But it’s probably the easiest question for me to answer: that’s Geovany Soto.
Okay, now let me pile on the caveats. Soto has been the most valuable player so far this season; that doesn’t mean he’s the most talented or most valuable player on this team period, but season-to-date he’s been the most productive player the Cubs have had. Hopefully before the end of the break, we’ll take a look at some projections to see who the most talented player on the team is, based upon more than just a half-season’s worth of data. But in the meantime, let’s take a walk through the first half of the season.
First, let’s look at the hitting – all pitchers (except Zambrano, who is an absolute badass) excluded:
|
Player
|
PA
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
SB
|
CS
|
wOBA
|
RAA
|
SBRuns
|
RAR
|
|
Derrek Lee
|
427
|
.306
|
.372
|
.508
|
5
|
2
|
.380
|
15.46
|
.34
|
28.94
|
|
Aramis Ramirez
|
377
|
.285
|
.386
|
.515
|
1
|
1
|
.381
|
14.00
|
-.16
|
25.44
|
|
Geovany Soto
|
362
|
.288
|
.369
|
.522
|
0
|
0
|
.381
|
13.39
|
0
|
24.53
|
|
Mark DeRosa
|
356
|
.283
|
.377
|
.453
|
3
|
0
|
.357
|
6.00
|
.66
|
17.62
|
|
Kosuke Fukudome
|
385
|
.279
|
.383
|
.408
|
8
|
4
|
.353
|
5.06
|
.24
|
17.15
|
|
Ryan Theriot
|
390
|
.320
|
.394
|
.369
|
15
|
9
|
.347
|
2.95
|
-.12
|
14.83
|
|
Alfonso Soriano
|
230
|
.283
|
.332
|
.547
|
7
|
1
|
.366
|
5.70
|
1.16
|
13.93
|
|
Jim Edmonds
|
157
|
.269
|
.369
|
.552
|
0
|
0
|
.391
|
7.26
|
0
|
12.09
|
|
Mike Fontenot
|
167
|
.266
|
.367
|
.497
|
2
|
0
|
.364
|
3.74
|
.44
|
9.32
|
|
Micah Hoffpauir
|
36
|
.400
|
.432
|
.571
|
1
|
0
|
.427
|
2.78
|
.22
|
4.10
|
|
Daryle Ward
|
62
|
.269
|
.387
|
.423
|
0
|
0
|
.364
|
1.39
|
0
|
3.29
|
|
Carlos Zambrano
|
56
|
.352
|
.352
|
.481
|
0
|
0
|
.348
|
.49
|
0
|
2.21
|
|
Ronny Cedeno
|
144
|
.269
|
.340
|
.354
|
3
|
1
|
.310
|
-3.51
|
.28
|
1.20
|
|
Henry Blanco
|
67
|
.286
|
.328
|
.333
|
0
|
0
|
.300
|
-2.19
|
0
|
-.13
|
|
Eric Patterson
|
44
|
.237
|
.318
|
.342
|
2
|
1
|
.298
|
-1.55
|
.06
|
-.14
|
|
Matt Murton
|
41
|
.250
|
.286
|
.300
|
0
|
0
|
.254
|
-3.01
|
0
|
-1.75
|
|
Reed Johnson
|
226
|
.268
|
.336
|
.376
|
4
|
4
|
.294
|
-8.66
|
-.64
|
-2.35
|
|
Felix Pie
|
68
|
.222
|
.286
|
.286
|
2
|
0
|
.248
|
-5.32
|
.44
|
-2.78
|
I’ll presume the first six columns are self-explanatory. I've covered some of this ground before, but here's a quick refresher:
- wOBA
- Linear weights as a rate stat, designed to look like OBP. .338 is considered average.
- RAA
- Runs above average. As above, but instead the raw totals are presented.
- SBRuns
- Stolen base runs created/cost, compared to the average.
- RAR
- Runs above replacement - players are credited with their RAA and SBRuns, but instead of comparing them to the average, they're compared to a hypothetical "replacement player." Replacement players are generally considered to be waiver pickups, free agents costing the league minimum, minor league journeymen, etc.
Unlike other replacement frameworks you may be used to, no credit is given for a player’s defensive position in the table above. Instead, we have a separate table for defense:
|
Player
|
Pos
|
INN
|
ZR
|
Plays +/-
|
Runs +/-
|
Adj.
|
|
Fukudome, Kosuke
|
RF
|
723.1
|
0.894
|
6.60
|
5.48
|
2.90
|
|
Fontenot, Mike
|
2B
|
287.2
|
0.854
|
3.50
|
2.64
|
2.64
|
|
Johnson, Reed
|
LF
|
108.2
|
0.964
|
2.99
|
2.48
|
2.08
|
|
Pie, Felix
|
CF
|
157
|
0.93
|
1.88
|
1.58
|
2.05
|
|
Cedeno, Ronny
|
SS
|
105
|
0.886
|
1.86
|
1.40
|
1.73
|
|
Soriano, Alfonso
|
LF
|
425.2
|
0.895
|
3.58
|
2.97
|
1.61
|
|
DeRosa, Mark
|
2B
|
394.1
|
0.832
|
1.97
|
1.49
|
1.49
|
|
DeRosa, Mark
|
3B
|
86.1
|
0.893
|
2.85
|
1.23
|
1.23
|
|
Murton, Matt
|
LF
|
62
|
0.923
|
0.85
|
0.71
|
0.52
|
|
Ward, Daryle
|
LF
|
17
|
1
|
0.71
|
0.59
|
0.52
|
|
Ward, Daryle
|
1B
|
17
|
1
|
0.67
|
0.53
|
0.35
|
|
Soriano, Alfonso
|
2B
|
1
|
1
|
0.36
|
0.28
|
0.28
|
|
Murton, Matt
|
RF
|
4
|
1
|
0.14
|
0.12
|
0.10
|
|
Cedeno, Ronny
|
3B
|
7
|
1
|
0.21
|
0.09
|
0.09
|
|
DeRosa, Mark
|
1B
|
2
|
1
|
0.13
|
0.11
|
0.07
|
|
Hoffpauir, Micah
|
1B
|
30
|
0
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Blanco, Henry
|
1B
|
1.2
|
0
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Patterson, Eric
|
2B
|
8
|
0
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Patterson, Eric
|
CF
|
2
|
0
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Cedeno, Ronny
|
CF
|
1
|
0
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
DeRosa, Mark
|
RF
|
114
|
0.872
|
0.57
|
0.48
|
-0.09
|
|
Johnson, Reed
|
CF
|
342
|
0.871
|
-1.42
|
-1.20
|
-0.19
|
|
Ward, Daryle
|
RF
|
16
|
0.75
|
-0.43
|
-0.36
|
-0.41
|
|
Patterson, Eric
|
LF
|
68
|
0.813
|
-0.71
|
-0.59
|
-0.82
|
|
Fukudome, Kosuke
|
CF
|
32
|
0.75
|
-1.09
|
-0.92
|
-0.83
|
|
Hoffpauir, Micah
|
LF
|
20
|
0.667
|
-1.14
|
-0.95
|
-1.04
|
|
Cedeno, Ronny
|
2B
|
166.1
|
0.771
|
-2.24
|
-1.69
|
-1.69
|
|
DeRosa, Mark
|
LF
|
156
|
0.8
|
-2.29
|
-1.91
|
-2.48
|
|
Ramirez, Aramis
|
3B
|
764
|
0.753
|
-7.12
|
-3.06
|
-3.06
|
|
Edmonds, Jim
|
CF
|
323.1
|
0.835
|
-5.28
|
-4.45
|
-3.33
|
|
Lee, Derrek
|
1B
|
806.2
|
0.885
|
3.06
|
2.44
|
-3.43
|
|
Theriot, Ryan
|
SS
|
752.1
|
0.801
|
-8.14
|
-6.13
|
-3.73
|
Plays and runs are compared to the average at the position. “Adj.” gives a bonus to players at more difficult defensive positions, and a debit to players at less demanding defensive positions. (This is why Lee’s adjusted defense is a negative number – he’s an above-average defensive first baseman, but that’s really not as valuable as a below-average defensive second baseman in the grand scheme of things. Please, please do not scream at me about this. I’m begging you here.) Catchers are a special case defensively, and so they get their own table:
|
Player
|
Inn
|
PB
|
WP
|
SB
|
CS
|
SB%
|
WPPB/G
|
SBRuns
|
WPPB
|
Total
|
|
Geovany Soto
|
713
|
4
|
21
|
43
|
15
|
74.14%
|
0.3
|
-1.57
|
1.49
|
5.01
|
|
Henry Blanco
|
143
|
2
|
3
|
9
|
3
|
75.00%
|
0.3
|
-0.39
|
0.30
|
0.93
|
Here we’re crediting catchers based upon their ability to throw out baserunners and keep the ball in front of them. (Chone Smith, as always, has a few ideas good enough to steal.) Soto and Blanco appear to be exceedingly similar in their defensive abilities; you can run a little on either of them, but they’ve good at blocking pitches in the dirt. Again, totals reflect the increased difficultly of playing a premium defensive position.
So, yeah – Soto has been our most valuable defensive player to date, and yet is still one of our top hitters. But don’t take my word for it, listen to the table:
|
Player
|
Offense
|
Defense
|
WAR
|
|
Soto,Geovany
|
24.53
|
5.01
|
2.81
|
|
Lee, Derrek
|
28.94
|
-3.43
|
2.43
|
|
Ramirez, Aramis
|
25.44
|
-3.06
|
2.13
|
|
Fukudome, Kosuke
|
17.15
|
2.07
|
1.83
|
|
DeRosa, Mark
|
17.62
|
0.22
|
1.70
|
|
Soriano, Alfonso
|
13.93
|
1.88
|
1.51
|
|
Fontenot, Mike
|
9.32
|
2.64
|
1.14
|
|
Theriot, Ryan
|
14.83
|
-3.73
|
1.06
|
|
Edmonds, Jim
|
12.09
|
-3.33
|
0.83
|
|
Ward, Daryle
|
3.29
|
0.46
|
0.36
|
|
Hoffpauir, Micah
|
4.10
|
-1.04
|
0.29
|
|
Cedeno, Ronny
|
1.20
|
0.13
|
0.13
|
|
Blanco, Henry
|
-0.13
|
0.93
|
0.08
|
|
Johnson, Reed
|
-2.35
|
1.89
|
-0.04
|
|
Pie, Felix
|
-2.78
|
2.05
|
-0.07
|
|
Patterson, Eric
|
-0.14
|
-0.82
|
-0.09
|
|
Murton, Matt
|
-1.75
|
0.63
|
-0.11
|
WAR is Wins Above Replacement – essentially figured here as Offense plus Defense divided by 10. Keep in mind that so long as you keep your performance above replacement level, the quickest path to a higher WAR is more playing time. Soriano, in spite of missed playing time, rebounded nicely from his slow start to the season. Soto’s an absolute stud. Dome has been a solid player, although what makes him more of an All-Star than Mark DeRosa is something I’ll never know.
And I have to admit something – there’s absolutely nothing to dislike about Fontenot’s contributions so far. Solid hitting, and very capable defense at a premium position.
I want to note that all of this is simply a recording of what has happened – over as short a span of time as a half-season, you can get a distorted view of a player’s performance. This is simply a statement of value to date, not of expected performance or true talent level. We’ll table that topic until tomorrow. (And, as demonstrated above, I really do mean “table.”)
If, incidently, you want to see more tables filled with numbers, here's the original spreadsheet. Of note is the inclusion of baseball players who aren't Cubs, by which I mean all baseball players. RAR for AL players is wrong wrong wrong, because it's after two in the morning and I needed this for a Cubs blog so I decided what the hell. If you want to use these values for AL players, you need to adjust the replacement level bonus from 20 to 25.




stats
nice work. anyway you slice it we have a more complete team than ever. theriot, fontenot and derosa give us alot of flexibility/depth we never had beyond our stars. everyone remember macias, neifi, rey ordonez, ramon martinez, ojeda? we are strong down in the ranks. if any one of the following; hill, lilly or marshall can step up we really are going to have an awesome second half. here's hoping marmol gets turned around too.
aren't we all glad we did not trade for arod? what a distraction. madonna is the town donut. what a tool.
If you check the spreadsheet out right now...
...you can get a sneak peak at tonight's pitcher WAR. I've got everything calculated, now I just need to make the pretty tables and actually explain what I'm doing.
Added everything up, and came up with (roughly) 27 WAR. A replacement level team is right around a .300 win percentage, so add it up and you get 56 wins. Cubs have won (wait for it) 57 games. I can live with that level of accuracy, I really can.