Goatriders of the Apocalypse

Rookie of the Year Race

On the heels of Starlin going 0 for 5 and his batting average dropping down to .314, I thought it might be a good time to look at the NL Rookie of the Year race:

I don't conisder Tyler Colvin a candidate so the leading candidates are as follows, with their stat line behind:

Jason Heyward: 417 PA, .259/.372/.443 .359wOBA, 2.6WAR 8/13 SB.

Heyward is the starting right fielder for the NL East leading Atlanta Braves. He is above average defensively but has struggled mostly with injuries and making contact this year. His K rate is over 23%. He has to lose some points in this race by being a right fielder and his batting average doesn't look that great. He has fantastic peripherals however and does get points for being on a pennant contending team.

Buster Posey: 273 PA, .331/.381/.500 .378wOBA, 2.5WAR 0/1 SB

Posey benefits from also being on a winning team and being a catcher. He has struggled recently bringing his batting average down from the rafters. He his excellent and I think his candidacy needs to be revisited once he gets to 400 PA.

Starlin Castro: 347PA, .319/.363/.445 .344wOBA, 2.3 WAR 6/11 SB

Starlin, of course, is the one candidate who is far from a pennant race {sob} but he has easily the most defensive value and has been smoking hot. One cautionary tale about him, however, is that he has a much higher BABIP than either Heyward or Posey. Notice the SLG (coming into Sunday's game) was higher than Heyward. Castro is not supposed to have much power but I happen to think it's pretty cool to see him produce a .136 ISO as a 20 year old playing shortstop. Makes me think the future is bright.

Jaime Garcia: 126.1 IP, 2.71ERA, 3.86 xFIP 2.5 War

Garcia has shown himself to be an outstanding student of the Duncan way. His ground ball rate is over 50% and he has done a fair job with his K/BB rate also this year. He has struggled of late and his ERA looks a lot worse now than it used to. 

My take is that right now, Heyward is still the man. He is leading in WAR, he has great raw stats and is playing right field for the first place Braves. I do think Castro will become a more talked about candidate nationally if he starts to make waves in the batting average race. I see that as being the easiest way for him to win the award. Right now, I'd vote Heyward/Posey/Castro and not vote for Garcia but that could change in the next month or longer.  

Mike Stanton has been worth

Mike Stanton has been worth 2.2 WAR in only 228 PA this season. Doesn't he deserve some consideration?

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