Goatriders of the Apocalypse

Look at me, I'm an expert on trades!

UPDATE: One down; according to Bruce Levine, Derrek Lee will not be traded. Let further speculation continue!

I'm sure you all read the same things I do (since MLBTradeRumors.com does such a great job of aggregating all the online buzz), but with Rob having brought up the subject of trades, I thought I'd try my best to summarize what's out there so we have a place for reader comments as these things begin to materialize.

1) As Rob said, looks like Lilly's gone. Bruce Levine (not Miles, whoops) says it's either the Dodgers or the Twins. Even though they're the smaller market, I feel like the Twins probably have more financial flexibility, and Ted appears to be the kind of guy that fits right into their pitching mantra, which is, "Don't walk anybody." So, guess number one: Ted Lilly to the Twins.

2) It's the apparent interest in Ryan Theriot that motivated Rob to post in the first place, and I do think he'll be moved. I think Lou Pinella and Jim Hendry are smart enough to know that a Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker platoon would be just as, if not more effective than starting The Riot everyday, and I think they're starting him so often because they know scouts are watching, so they're marketing him. It sounds like the interested teams are the Rockies and the Padres, but now that Troy Tulowitzki is back, and with the Padres leading the division, I think San Diego is probably more motivated to get a deal done. My guess: Ryan Theriot to the Padres.

3) I disagree with Rob on one point: I don't think Derrek Lee will be traded. If there's one thing Jim Hendry's been consistent about in his tenure with the Cubs, it's that he treats his players well (avoids arbitration, gives lots of NTCs, apparently consulted Lilly about his trade options, etc.). So if the return for Lee appears underwhelming -- and I'm pretty sure it does, given his cost and performance -- Hendry won't ask Lee to uproot his family for the sake of one more single-A pitching prospect. Derrek Lee will not be traded.

4) If the Cubs make more than two trades before Sunday, the third Cub to go will be Kosuke Fukudome. There clearly isn't a place for him on this team, and since you're gonna be paying him anyway, why not save $2MM-$5MM and try to get SOMETHING that complements your farm system? The Braves have expressed a need for an outfielder that can play center, and the Red Sox could probably use another outfielder as well. Gut feeling: Kosuke goes south. Kosuke Fukudome to the Atlanta Braves.

When all is said and done, I think the Cubs get back four A-level pitchers for Ted, Riot, and Fuk, and maybe end up paying $10mil of Kosuke's owed salary. So some money saved, and some pitching depth added.

I admit, I could very easily be totally wrong about all of this. But how will you be able to disagree with me unless I put my thoughts out there for you to roast them? Comments, please!

Update: looks like Twins are

Update: looks like Twins are on Lilly's NTC. And a recent quote from O'Down suggests a Theriot deal might not go down before the deadline; waivers make more sense for him, I think.

Lee

It looks like Derrek Lee doesn't want to be traded.

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