Goatriders of the Apocalypse

Reader Blog: Fun With Statistics!

In light of a few numbers that were thrown around in the shoutbox recently, I decided to further investigate some statistics that may or may not be trends. Most of these things are probably unrelated, but some of them are very interesting to know. So without further adieu… Fun With Statistics!


We’ll start out with a couple of team-centric warm-ups


The Cubs are:

  • 8-12 in One-Run games
  • 9-7 in blowouts (5+ runs)
  • 3-24 when they score 3 runs or less (!)
  • 23-7 when they score 4 runs or more
  • 11-0 when they score 7 runs or more
  • 12-2 when they allow 2 runs or less
  • 14-29 when they allow 3 runs or more
  • 7-14 when they allow 3 or 4 runs (What!?)

Ok… So from that we can accurately say if we score 4 runs or more, we’ll probably win and if we allow 2 runs or less, we’ll probably win. Jeez, not too much margin for error there.


Alright, next let’s look at some situational statistics for the team


The Cubs are:

  • 26-1 when they start the 9th inning with the lead or tied (damn, alright, that’s actually pretty great)
  • 0-30 when they start the 9th inning behind (Holy. Shit.)

The Cubs have:

  • 8 comeback wins with the largest deficit overcome being 3 runs (sigh, remember that Rockies game in magical 2008?)
  • 14 blown leads (for comparison, we had only 22 in all of 2009.)
  • 2 walk-off wins
  • 0 walk-off losses (Hey! An improvement! We had 13 in 2009)

Wow. Alright. Those are some pretty polarizing numbers. Let’s move on.


Time to pick on some individual contributors (or, probably more than likely, “lack of” contributors)


The Cubs are:

  • 10-1 in games started by King Carlos Silva (this is my personal favorite and the one that spawned this post)
  • 16-30 in games started by anyone else
  • 11-12 in games where John Grabow pitches (I assumed worse)
  • 20-6 in games where Carlos Marmol pitches (Only 12 being Saves)
  • 7-3 in games where Aramis Ramirez does not play
  • 9-16 in games where Aramis Ramirez does play AND has a hit
  • 5-14 in games Derrek Lee goes hitless
  • 19-17 in games Derrek Lee has at least 1 Hit
  • 12-5 in games Derrek Lee has at least 1 RBI

Ya know, I could probably go on and on, but let’s sum up what we’ve learned here.


- The Cubs do not do well in close games
- They will, however, win most every game they score 4 or more runs
- Unfortunately, if they give up more than 2 runs, they will probably lose


- If we have the lead in the 9th, you can chalk that baby up in the W column.
- If we’re losing in the 9th, you might as well turn the game off.


- Carlos Silva and Carlos Marmol have saved this team.
- John Grabow and Aramis Ramirez have killed this team.
- Derrek Lee may or may not be expendable.



Go Cubs.

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