Goatriders of the Apocalypse

Reader Blog: Cubs v Cardinals

Outside of the Cardinals, the NL Central does appear winnable this year. If the Cubs can string a few wins together, they might be able to finagle 85 this year and take the division. Is there any reason to think the Cardinals are going to fail? Probably not, but it is possible.

Right now, the Cardinals are greatly outperforming their statistical indicators while the Cubs are slightly underperforming there's. This has more to do with St. Louis' 4 game lead over the Cubs than any major difference in quality.

St. L GP-13  RS-59  RA-40
Chi GP-13    RS-54   RA-64

So the Cardinals have outscored the Cubs by a small amount while crushing them in the ability to stop the other team from scoring. Makes sense, but consider this:

Cubs wOBA- .328
Cardinals wOBA-.325

So the Cubs have more run potential than the Cardinals on offense. It's early, but at worst these teams should be about tied in runs scored.

Cubs xFIP-3.83
Cardinals xFIP-3.77

The actual ERA's are hugely different but the fielding independent team ERA's are almost identical so far. The Cubs have seriously underperformed their xFIP.

These things have a tendency to work themselves out but as of right now, without looking at the glove work where I am sure the Cardinals have a slight advantage, there is no reason to believe the Cardinals are that much better than the Cubs.

It's a long season everyone. I predict that at some point this year, the Cubs will pass the Cardinals for first place if even for just a short time. It's too early to abadon hope.

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