Goatriders of the Apocalypse

MLB Network's Hot Stove Analysis of Cubs

For those of you who may have missed it Tuesday night, MLB Network's Hot Stove had a segment where they analyzed the Cubs' offseason and where they feel that the team is compared to where they were entering the playoffs last year.  Some of the key points that were brought up:

 

Key Additions: P Aaron Heilman, P Kevin Gregg, IF Aaron Miles, OF Milton Bradley

 

Key Losses: P Jason Marquis, P Kerry Wood, IF Mark DeRosa, OF Jim Edmonds

 

Addition by Subtraction?

 

The question brought up was whether or not they put back more than they lost.  The guys on the show all pretty much agreed that their was a big question mark in the middle of the infield and around the backup situation for Ramirez and Lee since DeRosa was traded.  Obviously, Hendry feels that Miles is a good replacement for DeRosa's versatility and I would have to agree.  DeRosa was average at best at all of the positions he played last year.  He wasn't a gold glover at any position which was obvious so I think that Miles can easily fill the role.  Offensively, Fontenot, given a similar number of at bats, would have performed very similarly to DeRosa in almost every catagory, so Fontenot could end up replacing DeRosa's bat.  The one thing that wasn't replaced however, was DeRo's locker room presence.  What affect will this have? I am not sure, but what I am sure of is that I will miss him when the media starts turning to guys like Soriano for post game interviews. UGH!

 

5th starter and who's in center?


This is funny actually because when you look back a year ago they were asking the same questions.  This was obviously before Dempster had a good spring training and a career year.  The only thing that really is different about this year is that there is only one spot in the rotation guys will be competing for and we have two guys who can hit in the majors (well...kinda) competing for the starting CF job.  The guys on Hot Stove made a quick reference to these positions, but pretty much brushed past them feeling that they are big question marks that Hendry and Pinella will need to address come spring training.  I, however, don't feel that this is the case.  CF is going end up being a straight platoon like last year with Fukudome taking the place of Edmonds and I am content with that.  The 5th starter job will end up being a competition between Heilman and Marshall.  Pinella doesn't seem to be a fan of Gaudin, so I consider him out.  At this point, you could flip a coin with Heilman and Marshall.  Who knows?  What I would like to see happen (and also is the likely scenario) is to have Heilman as the Cubs' 5th starter will Marshall being the swing man.  This would make the most sense because it would give the bullpen a second lefty and provide insurance in case of a needed day off (Harden) or injury (Harden).  This scenario would leave Shark in AAA getting ready to become a big league starter.  Stashing Shark away for a few months would be huge for the Cubs if...and this is a big IF...Harden stays healthy and pitches like he did in the second half last year because he would be a VERY valuable trade piece at the deadline.  It's too early to speculate on July trades, but in a perfect world, it would happen.

 

And finally...

 

Hothead vs. Hothead


Now that Milton Bradley has signed with the Cubs and is being looked upon to balance the Cubs' lineup, people are waiting for Lou and him to go at it much like Big Z and Barrett.  You put two historically explosive guys in the clubhouse together you can expect some fireworks, but for some reason, the guys on Hot Stove don't think so.  And the odd part is...I agree.  I think that Bradley will be great for the Cubbies and for their clubhouse.  They need to lose that "You blew the game, but it ok, you tried your best" attitude that they seem to have.  Bradley is the man to light that fire and really give it to someone when they lose a game they should have won.  Lou seems to have lost his edge in his old age (sorry Lou) and I think that MB is the guy to bring that back.  I see this becoming the Kobe Bryant/Phil Jackson love affair for baseball.  But...I could be wrong and we could see Bradley break Pinella's jaw for taking him out of a game.  Either way, I'll take him.

 

All in all, I think the offseason hasn't been that bad.  It really isn't much different than last year.  I mean we signed our big name lefty to play right field, we have questions surrounding CF and the fifth starter spot, and we were glued to our computers waiting for that big trade to come through only to see our Trade-O-Meter stay at Nuh-uh for 90% of the offseason.  I am sure Hendry still has a few minor things up his sleeve, like he always does, but if the season were to start tomorrow, I would take this team even with the question marks...and so should you.

Sounds about right. I think

Sounds about right.

I think Heilman is this year's Dempster. I don't know why I expect lightning to strike twice with this reliever-to-successful-starter conversion, but everything I've read online suggests to me that Heilman has the repertoire to start.

I heard the same

From what I was reading on the link from MLBTR, he seems to have a hell of an arsenal. I think that if he can play with confidence and gel with the rest of the team, he will be another Dempster. And I would take that over Peavy and his back loaded contract.

Agreed. I'd also rather the

Agreed. I'd also rather the Cubs sign Sheets for two or three years, rather than Peavy for four.

Well, wait - I've been

Well, wait - I've been saying all along that the Cubs should play to win this year. So to be consistent I'd prefer Peavy over Heilman.

But I do see how this deal might work out better. Peavy does have an injury history himself, does have an ERA deflated by pitching at Petco, and would be ridiculously expensive. And maybe Peavy actually would have ended up costing multiple big-league pieces. Who really knows.

Heilman

It would make sense to give Heilman the first crack at being the fifth starter in the rotation. If he were to fail in the role he can quickly and easily be transitioned to the bullpen, and then the same process could be repeated with Gaudin - with Marshall waiting in the wings serving in long relief and spot-start duty. It makes sense to keep some of the younger arms (Smardjz, Marshall, Hart, Guzman) out of the picture for the early part of the season. Most of those guys likely wouldn't be able to give the team 150-200 innings starting at the MLB level right now anyway, so it makes sense to bring them into the equation a bit later to preserve their innings and prevent fatigue towards the end of the season. I would much rather see any one of those younger guys come into the rotation in late May or early June and be able to pitch through the end of the season, with Heilman or Gaudin taking the starts in the early part of the season. The team has an enormous amount of depth to cover the 5th spot in the rotation, and as result the guy that's there in April doesn't necessarily still have to be the 5th starter in September and October.

Gaudin is younger than

Gaudin is younger than Marshall.

But, Gaudin has also thrown 199innings in a season before.

Gaudin

I would give Gaudin the second shot behind Heilman because I view him much the same way I do Heilman. I would like either one to get the starts early in the season, and if neither works out in the role they can both then be shuffled down to the pen. I personally, would value all of the other younger or more inexperienced arms a little more than those two as starters in the long-term, so I would be in no rush to put one of the younger guys in the rotation in April. This is a debate that really centers on Rich Harden's health, because if Harden isn't healthy then both could conceivably land in the rotation to begin the season.

Am I the only one that

Am I the only one that thinks Heilman is pretty much the same guy as Howry???

Yep.

Yep.

Bob Howry has no value

Bob Howry has no value because he is terrible. He is a pitcher with a LaTroy Hawkins-repertoire', which consists of nothing other than a hard fastball with little command. Heilman has a good assortment of quality pitches, and he's a pitcher not a thrower. When you see Heilman's slider, changeup, and other secondary pitches he shouldn't be anything close to a reminder of Bob Howry. Howry and Heilman each had poor seasons in their own right, but Heilman is a pitcher still capable of putting it all together while Bob Howry continues his all-too slow transition to a batting practice pitcher.

Joe Torre said he's still

Joe Torre said he's still pretty sure Kershaw won't start the season with the .... If he is truly ready for major league ball, he should light up AAA, and the Dodgers can bring him up later in the season as either a starter or reliever.

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