Goatriders of the Apocalypse

A look at the odds

This is just a preliminary workthrough of the odds of the Cubs winning the series with the Dodgers. Just as Kurt's doing with the scouting reports, I hope to do team-by-team breakdowns using the latest and greatest in mad science. But while Igor's out fetching the cadavers I need, here's a quick look at things using the log5 method. Team win percentages are figured from the BP PECOTA playoff odds report. Odds do not change game to game, except for home field advantage. This is not the ideal way to do it, but until I can update depth charts and projections it will do.

Odds that Cubs win series in three games: 18%

Odds that Cubs win series in four games: 22.5%

Odds that Cubs win series in five games: 21.1%

Total: 61.6%

Subject to change based upon improvements to the model, or as more information comes out about roster decisions.

not good enough

i'd be much more comfortable at 63.2 percent.

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