Goatriders of the Apocalypse

Long term thoughts about the 2008 Cubs

Who knew that a reader could inspire me to contribute so much content?  I was responding to yet another comment by Goat Reader boredblue, who regrettably made me prove a point recently to his disdain, when I decided the topic was worthy of a new article.

Basically, as we enter June, I think we are all pleased by the play of the penchantly persistent Pubs.  ...I mean Cubs.  (Sorry, got caught up in the alliteration.)  However, I think even the most optimistic of us would agree that the Cubs could stand to see an upgrade in a few spots.  Ideally, center field would be nice.  Alternatively, the Cubs just might chase after a middle infielder with a little more staying power than who they currently have out there.  However, as the Cubs offense remains, well, amazing, the clear area where an upgrade would be huge is the starting rotation.

In fact, I think the Cubs need to upgrade with at least two starters to really look threatening.  Don't get me wrong, I'd trust Carlos Zambrano with my unconceived children's lives, but there is nobody else in the starting rotation who inspires confidence in a short series.  Ted Lilly - while impressive and occasionally dangerous - collapsed like a drunk girl at Octoberfest in the last playoff series he saw.  Ryan Dempster - while shockingly effective - has an awfully long way to go* before he convinces me that he can keep it up all season long.  And that's about it.  The only way I want to see Jason Marquis pitch in the post season is if the Cubs trade him to the team that they play in the playoffs, and while both Seans Gallagher and Marshall have potential (even boredblue will admit it), do you really want one or the other starting a game against the Red Sox in October?  Naaaaah.

(*As in, he has to go all season long.  I know, you're shocked by the logic.) 

Therefore, the Cubs need to make some trades.  First and foremost, I think they need to get another starting pitcher who is steady, reliable, and easily had due to his age.  In other words, c'mon down Greg Maddux.  Right now, the Future Hall of Famer is pitching for the worst team in baseball, and my understanding is that they can't set that sale on fire fast enough.  On top of his amazing knowledge of how the game is played, Maddux would bring stability to a pitching rotation that's relying on Ryan Dempster.  Plus, as I may have already mentioned, he could be fairly cheap considering that he's about a zillion years old (and does anybody really want a known farter in the clubhouse?  That's a discount-maker, baby). 

Perhaps the Cubs can acquire Greg for an equally old starting pitcher and a younger guy with moderate potential.  In other words, sprinkle on some Jon Lieber, mix in a minor leaguer who we'll never see pitch in the majors, and it's a deal.  However, even in his best years, the Mad Dog was moderately impressive at best in the post season, and the Cubs will need to make one other trade to guarantee a strong chance to blaze into glory in October.

At the moment, that list of potentials is sparse.  Unless a team is  either 10 games under .500 or 10 games out of the playoff race, it's really too early to stick a fork in them.  However, the following teams are pretty well out of it: Colorado, San Francisco, San Diego (duh), Washington D.C., Seattle, and Detroit.  Should these teams submit to forces most commonly referred to as "reality," there are a handful of candidates who the Cubs might consider pursuing.  These guys include:

Aaron Cook: While not your average playoff ace, Cook is a tantalizing possibility.  He's never had what you would call a good year per se, although he has been burdened with pitching in Colorado.  This season, the 29-year-old is off to a great start: 6-3, 3.06 ERA, 1.29 WHIP.  Apart from his history of being mostly crappy, Cook is not in any way an overpowering pitcher.  He's never struck out more than 92 batters in a full season of work and, despite their deep surge into the playoffs last year, the Rockies only saw fit to start him once - in the World Series, against the Red Sox, who pummelled him.  ...let's move along.

Chris Young: Young is a legendary pitcher best known from that time when he almost exchanged blows with Derrek Lee.  Last season, the gargantuan soon-to-be-29-year-old righty won a whopping 9 games, despite his impressive 3.12 ERA.  In his career, Young has pitched well, if never spectacularly, but most concerning is that he's never thrown more than 179.1 innings, and that was even after he made 31 starts.  In other words, he brings something to the table, but he seems to be missing some weird component.  This year, Young is doing "okay."  He's got 4 wins in 9 starts and a 4.18 ERA.  He's also never won more than 12 games in a season, but, then again, he's never pitched in front of an offense as deadly as Chicago's.

Tim Redding: Redding, who is 30 this year, is off to a pretty impressive start.  The man is 6-3 with a 3.16 ERA.  However, in his career, Tim Redding has sucked ass.  He's never won more than 10 games (in a season in which he lost 14), and his career ERA is 4.74.  His stuff is not overpowering, nor has he ever demonstrated the ability to maintain the kind of numbers he's putting up so far this year.  I say pass.

Erik Bedard: Ah, Erik Bedard, how you tempt me with thy stuff.  Before the start of this season, I was an advocate of Hill for Bedard, and oh, how you all scoffed at me.  My point at the time was that he's of a similar age to Hill, and while they put up many similar numbers last year, Bedard has served as an ace for a couple of years and might be just slightly better.  Also, I was pretty sure that when Hill took the mound last October, he strangely stank of his own urine.  Hill just didn't seem to have an ace's mentality, even before he forgot the location of the strike zone.  Not that I'm a gloater, but it turns out that I may have been right.  Bedard has missed a few starts this year, but he remains an interesting choice for #2 ace, and Seattle just might consider trading him if they continue to suck.

In conclusion.  To be honest, I'm not insanely impressed by the crop of potentially available "aces."  I would still take Bedard, though.  We have to hope that, as June progresses and melts into July, the playoff picture will be made a little clearer.  Perhaps teams like Toronto, Baltimore, Cleveland, Oakland, Texas, New York, Detroit, and L.A. will fade away, and their better players will be made available.  If so, then I hope Jim Hendry pounces.

One of my biggest complaints about our GM is that he has displayed a terrible inability to make a good trade in the past four years.  If he can prove me wrong now and scoop up a Maddux and an ace, then I will have to re-evaluate my position about the guy.  And while I am an advocate of good, young pitchers like the Seans, I would trade them both in a heartbeat for any pitcher who instills fear in the hearts of opposing batters.

Unfortunately, even though those fear-instilling pitchers exist, it's rare to find them on a trading block.  But, so far this year, the Cubs have been a team of surprises.  Maybe a big trade would be the biggest surprise of all.  Let's hope that this is the case, as I can't help but reiterate my belief that unless Carlos Zambrano can start in every single game of the playoffs, then the Cubs won't advance.   

I'd rather not, thanks.

That's a list of suck right there, sir. Just because we watched Dempster not be this good for several years doesn't mean he's any more or less of a regression candidate than Redding or Cook.

As far as Maddux and Young, remember that they pitch in Petco, where offense goes to die. Young's 4.18 ERA looks pretty good until you park adjust and realize that in Wrigley that would be a 4.82 ERA at this point. Same with Maddux - a translated ERA of 4.55. Both of them have pitched just about as well as our back of the rotation options - and if the only thing the Padres can get for them is Jon Lieber and an 25-year-old A-ball pitcher, they'll just keep them, thanks.

Both of them have been wildly unimpressive so far this season, and both are likely to be wildly overvalued on the trade market.

Oh, and Bedard - the M's traded away a lot for him. I don't see any way in which they ship him off so quickly.

Well...

I did say "To be honest, I'm not insanely impressed by the crop of potentially available 'aces.'"

Then, I said, "Perhaps teams like Toronto, Baltimore, Cleveland, Oakland, Texas, New York, Detroit, and L.A. will fade away, and their better players will be made available. If so, then I hope Jim Hendry pounces."

The difference between Maddux and our back of the rotation options is this: we don't know how our back of the rotation options will look at the end of September. Maybe they can stay consistent and healthy, but maybe not. Maddux would likely have an ERA in the low-to-mid 4's if he came back to Chicago, but at least you'd know that he'd be a consistent presence out there.

Incidentally, I never speculated on what it would cost to get Maddux AND Young. Just Maddux. Seems to me that pitchers in their 40's can often come pretty cheaply, regardless of their pedigree. (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2535506)

Also seems to me that you have the tendency to read the first sentence of most paragraphs I write, but not the last. My writing tends to end in a different place from where it started, so if you're going to read only one or two sentences per para, make them the last ones.

Maddux alone wouldn't go for Lieber and a crap prospect.

Only one GM in baseball is willing to make that sort of a dumb trade, and guess what - we have him! (Seriously - Maddux for Izturis? Gimme a break.) The Padres are looking for young players to rebuild around. They don't need Lieber.

And Maddux is more likely to give us a mid-to-high fours ERA than he is to give us a low-to-mid fours ERA.

I don't know what sentence I failed to read; I know a few places where I may not have been as clear as I meant to be, but you'll have that at 1 in the morning.

The only "ace caliber" pitcher that I can think will be available prior to the deadline will be A.J. Burnett.

I just mean that, similar to

I just mean that, similar to what happened with my post about Essential On Base Percentage, you seemed to make a few assumptions about what I wrote that aren't true ... particularly that I think Young AND Maddux could be had for a song, or that I was actually advocating the acquisition of any of the pitchers listed.

Having a back-end pitcher with an ERA in the area where Maddux will likely produce isn't a biggie. Point is, he might give us an unexceptional ERA, but he probably won't give the Cubs an ERA in the 6's during the stretch like a youngster might.

Lastly, I wouldn't be crazy about Burnett, but I see how he might be an likely choice. He'd still be a better #2 than somebody like Lilly, I think.

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