You're going to think we've gone crazy, or that this is an April 1st hoax.  It is neither, I promise you.  But where some people are content to merely predict a division title and playoff berth, we at GROTA - or, at least I - recognize above all others just how amazing this Cubs team is. 

To be fair, everybody else in the world - including my compatriots at Goat Riders - thinks I'm crazy.  To be honest, I think that, too.  I know that the Cubs aren't going to have an easy go of it.  They play way too many games in the cold, Chicago weather, and they play far too few games at home in the warm months.  Not to mention all the possible problems with the actual roster.  I mean, sure, their first baseman had a shocking loss of power last year, and their second baseman had heart surgery last month, and their third baseman raises fighting cocks (snicker), and their left fielder loses his mind if he's not applying his 40-homerun power output to the leadoff spot, and ... and ... and we haven't even started talking about their pitching yet.

But, here's the deal.  While the Cubs have some question marks, they also have answers.  Will Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis remain in the rotation all year long?  No?  Then Jon Lieber, Sean Marshall, and Sean Gallagher will be there to fight for those two open slots.  Is Derrek Lee a 40-homer threat anymore?  Maybe not?  That's okay, Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano still are.  

The reason this Cubs team is so deadly, the reason they will dominate unlike any Cubs team before is that there are a) no glaring holes, b) adequate backups everywhere, and most importantly, c) the majority of the teams they play regularly in 2008 will be fighting all year long for last place.  The Central sucks.

Keep in mind the following useful statistics:

Over at Baseball Prospectus, when they're not too busy playing Nerd War, they come up with some incredibly useful, insightful stats.  In this case, they've developed a unique and complicated mathematical formula in which they can calculate the projected wins and losses of a team.  I know, it's crazy, but it seems to work.  For the 2008 season, they have three NL Central teams projected to lose close to 90 games - the Cardinals, Astros, and Pirates.  They have a fourth central division team projected to go 80-82 - Dusty Baker's Reds.  Did we mention that Baker is batting Corey Patterson leadoff?  

In other words, four of the six central division teams are going to really suck in 2008.  We're talking 90-100 losses suck.  This is a strong advantage for the Cubs.  After all, play against those four teams represents about half of the Cubs games in 2008.  That's a whole lot of easy pickings right there.

As for the rest of the league, sure, some of those teams are tough.  Including the Cubs, the National League is projected to have half its teams win more than they lose, which is actually a pretty high number.  However, ask yourself, how many of those teams are actually better than the Cubs?  ...on second thought, don't ask yourself that question, because it seriously challenges my claim that they will win 120.  Ignore the facts.  Ignore them!  Facts, I cast you out!

I will acknowledge that everything needs to go right.  Unlike yesterday, the Cubs will need to win every close game they play.  They will need to stay healthy.  Everybody in the lineup and rotation will need to play at their best, and a handful of Cubs will need career years.  But it could happen.  It could really happen.

Wait, it couldn't happen?  You're sure?  Crap.  Well, I'm still making a new Zambran-0-Meter tonight, and it will reflect my preposterous claim.  Regardless, the Cubs are good, and they will win a lot if only because the central division sucks.   And I still think I have huge, clanking balls for making this ridiculous claim and sticking to it.  

Oh, and speaking of the Zambran-0-Meter.  If you want to have one for yourself, just right click on the below image, select properties, copy the html address, and it will be updated regularly throughout the year.