So, it looks like it's all coming down to the wire.  The Cubs, St Lou and Milwaukee, as predicted by... well, more or less everyone, really.  I just don't think anybody knew it was going to happen like this.  The Deadbirds and the Cubs were both dreadful - far worse than expected - in the early running, and the Brewers ran away with it, only to shit the bed in spectacular fashion and cough up a twenty-eight game lead in about four days.  To be honest, none of these three teams is great - they pretty much all have their faults, but nonetheless, one of them is going to win the division - Bud says that's how it works - so... which is it?

Well, if we look at the August numbers, they tell a story.  From the batting point of view, the Cubs have been decent but haven't slugged high enough.  The Cards have been all-around okay.  And the Brewers can't get on base to save their lives - which is just as well because in the month of August they've hit 36 dingers in 23 games.  As a result of their piss-poor on base skills, though, they've scored three fewer runs than the Cubs and their 17 homers (including DLee's ITP).

Yes, the Cubs have managed 17 home runs between them, all month.  Put me in the lineup, Lou, and I'll hit seventeen all by myself.  In one game.  That's what a fricking hero I am.*  Seventeen?  Are you kidding me?  Sheesh.  It's just as well that Soriano's coming back tonight - they need the extra pop, and, of course, the extra single RBIs.

Actually, having said that, if you look at the individual numbers (and by numbers, I mean OPS), pretty much everybody on all three teams is doing pretty much what you'd expect them to.  Jones, Kendall, Molina, Ankiel, Dillon and Weeks are playing over their heads.  Pie, Fontenot, Duncan, Rolen, Hall and Mench are sucking donkey balls.  But apart from that, everybody's kind of doing what you'd expect.  So let's presume that that's going to continue, and on that basis, we can basically ignore the offenses for the rest of the season.  Yes, having Soriano back is going to be nice for the Cubs, but it's not going to completely turn the team round, offensively speaking.

So, what about the pitching?  Well, the Cubs and the Cards currently have the pitching.  The Brew Crew, though, pretty much only have "pitching" at the moment.  With their Sheets to the wind (see what I did there?), they're becalmed and taking on water, and may not be able to find a port in the storm (and I think that's enough nautical parallels for one piece).  They've posted a team ERA of 6.43 in the month.  I'll write that out in case you think I've made a mistake.  Six, point four three.  Ouch.  Pretty much their entire starting rotation has been absolutey frickin' terrible.  Capuano, Vargas and Gallardo have more or less given up a run an inning all month - 71 runs between the three of them.  Awooga.

Well, they're not going to continue to be that bad, of course - except Capuano, who at the moment couldn't find his arse with both hands.  But, they're not going to be, you know, good - and although Sheets is due back this week (against the Cubs, natch), he still has the "torn tissue" on his middle finger wrapped and that, my friends, doesn't sound good.  Basically, the Brewers know that if they don't get him back now, they can kiss goodbye to the division, so they're rushing him.  Oh dear.

On the other hand, the Cards have posted a 3.78 ERA this month.  Ahahahahahaha.  No really, they have.  Wainwright?  2.00.  Reyes?  3.41.  Pineiro?  3.86.  Wells?  3.91.  Kip frickin' Wells has an ERA.  Under.  Four.  Kip Wells DREAMS of an ERA under four, and as soon as he wakes up, it's all over.  Seriously, does anybody really think these jokers are going to continue pitching like this for another five weeks?  Not me.  No sir.  Remember what they were like until July?  Well, that's what they're really like, dear readers, and the sooner they go back to that the sooner we can get on with yukking it up about them.  I can't wait.

So, what about the Cubs?  Well, none of the Cubs' starters has managed to give up fewer than four per nine in August.  The best, in fact, has been Rich Hill at 4.02.  Lilly's at 4.99 and the big Z at over 7.  This is the time of year where we find out what they're made of, of course, but in the case of Lilly and Zambrano, I'd say the answer to that is "blood, guts, and glory".  In any event, I'm not going to tell them otherwise, are you?  I think we can expect the Cubs pitching to improve, let's put it that way.

And you know what?  That's going to be enough.  The Brewers are done, done, done.  Sheets is their only hope and there's only so much one man can do, even if he is fit.  The Cards can't continue to pitch like they have.  This - right now - is about as good as it gets for those two teams, and neither of them has been able to make a real run, and put the division out of reach.

So that leaves it up to the Cubs.  It's theirs to lose, and with Piniella in the driving seat, you'd better believe they won't be allowed to piss it away.  I'm not booking an October flight to Chicago just yet, but if the Brewers don't take two of three at the Friendly Confines this week, it's all over bar the shouting.

You can quote me on that.**  Go Cubs.

P.S.  Since I wrote this article, I've found this over at Baseball Prospectus.  History is very definitely against the Brewers.

* I have never played organised baseball.  I couldn't hit seventeen home runs in a year of little league.

**  As long as it actually comes true.