Goatriders of the Apocalypse

Epic Post: Getting on the road to Playoffsville

We are well into the month of June, and at this point we can all probably agree on several conclusions.  First: the 2007 Chicago Cubs have talent.  Second: They are playing in a weak division.  Third: They have a shot at competing all year long.  Fourth: Before they can compete all year long, they need to do a LOT.  This includes difficult roster moves and some trades.  Let us consider together what the Cubs need to do to stay alive.

  • For starters, the bullpen is so terrible that it has, on multiple occasions, forced grown men to weep.  The Cubs need to make some hard decisions about several key players.  Scott Eyre is pitching with a fork stuck in him.  Will Ohman should never pitch after the seventh.  Bob Howry should not be the setup man.  And Ryan Dempster should be at CLFN Status (Closer For Now). 

    How can the Cubs improve this bullpen?  There are two ways, both of which involve their talent system, but one way or another, two of the three disappointments need to go.  Since the Cubs are unlikely to outright release Eyre, they need to think about sticking him on the Disabled List with a mysterious ear injury, or something.  Likewise, Howry is more expensive than Ohman, so he needs to stick around.  Therefore, the Cubs need to either deal or trade Will, who is unreliable at best.  As for how they fill those two empty spaces, they can either promote and rely upon some minor league talent, or they can take that minor league talent and trade them for proven veteran relievers.  Going the first route is risky because if guys like Rocky Cherry and Carlos Marmol are promoted and flop, then their trade value is decreased.  However, should the Cubs go with a trade, these are the teams (and players) to look to: (Please note: in no way am I expressing the opinion that all these guys are available.  I mean, how would I know?  I'm just saying they might be)

    Washington Nationals: The benefit of their suckage is the availability of their veteran talent.  The Nationals haven't been as bad as people thought, but they are pretty much out of it.  Lucky for us, they have a handful of good relievers who are pushing the age of 30-or-older who might be available for a trade.  These guys include Jesus Colome, a 29-year-old journeyman reliever who happens to be having he best year of his career.  He's pitched 40.2 IP this year while having a 2.21 ERA.  Just what the doctor ordered. Saul Rivera, is another guy.  He's a 29-year-old reliever in his second season in the majors.  Rivera, at this point, is as close to a sure thing as you can get.  Last year, he had a 3.43 ERA in 60.1 innings of work, and this year he's looking at a 3.67 ERA.  And lastly, Micah Bowie?!?!  ...nah.  Once bitten, you know?  Granted, the lefty Bowie is posting a 3.79 ERA in 35.2 innings of work, but I can still remember how brutal he was in his first trip to Chicago, and I'd prefer to leave it at that.

    Tampa Bay Suck-Rays: These guys are a young team building for the future, which means they might be prime examples of a team willing to deal veterans for prospects.  In this case, Tampa boasts only one talented reliever over the age of 30, and that's their closer, Al Reyes.  At 36, Reyes has been around baseball for quite a while, but he's never been as successful as this year.  He is currently boasting a 1.95 ERA in 27.2 IP, with 15 saves and 0 blown.  Plus, he's making less than a million dollars this year.  In other words, despite his age, Reyes may very well be a hot commodity come the trade deadline, and he might be perfect for a team that doesn't want to rely on Ryan Dempster too much.  I'd say he's a definite go-grabber.

    Kansas City Royals: The Royals actually have what appears to be the best bullpen in baseball, but three of their relievers are over the age of 30.  These guys are Joel Peralta (3.86 ERA in 39.2 IP), David Riske (2.70 ERA in 26.2 IP), and Brandon Duckworth (2.94 ERA in 33.2 IP).  Peralta is in his second year, Duckworth has a track record of sucktitude, and ironically, David Riske would be the smallest risk of the bunch, as he's a veteran.

    Texas Rangers:  Another team with a good, veteran bullpen, the Rangers may also be persuaded in parting with some players if they continue to play poorly.  This is a team that is being entirely undone by their horrible starting pitching, plus their incredibly selfish, homer-happy DH/right fielder.  Anyway.  Players available from Texas include Joaquin Benoit (3.09 ERA in 32 IP), Akinori Otsuka (2.28 ERA in 23.2 IP), and, should they be willing to part with him, Eric Gagne (0.56 ERA in 16 IP). 

    Cincinnati Reds:  These guys are sunk.  Poor Red-Hot Mama.  Anyway, their bullpen is just as bad as the Cubs, but 37-year-old closer David Weathers is quietly putting together a decent season.  He's got a 3.73 ERA in 31.1 IP with 12 saves.  Man, that guy is on team number twelve, altho' he's been with the Reds once before.  Plus he used to be a Cub. 

    Pittsburgh Pirates: The only Buck reliever who might be made available is Damaso Marte, who has a career ERA of 3.18, and an ERA of 1.33 in 20.1 IP this year.  Hey, he's a worthy risk.

    So, as you can see, at this point already there might be as many as a dozen useful relievers available for trade.  The Cubs should definitely pursue one or two of these guys.

  • The next big issue remains the #5 starter.  At this point, guys like Angel Guzman and Sean Marshall have been sharing the job, and they haven't done poorly.  However, if the Cubs are going to compete, I would recommend that they go after a veteran starter who's been there before and might get them there again.  Here's another list of guys who might be available because they are older and are playing on losing teams:

    Steve Traschel (5-4, 3.82 ERA, 36-years-old).  Eh... pass.  Look, I won't contest that Traschel has put together a respectable, if not somewhat boring career. He's not a great pitcher, and while he'd be a suitable #5 guy, I can't help but want to forget his time in Chicago.  Besides, who wants to spend like, five hours at Wrigley on a hot summer day?  That's exactly what would happen if he came back to Chicago.

    ...and, actually, that's about it at the moment.  As the season progresses, we may see more names available, though.  Guys to look out for may include Livan Hernandez, Jamie Moyer, Jon Lieber, and perhaps a few others. 

  • Beyond simple trades, the Cubs need to resolve their lineup issues.  One criticism levied at Jim Hendry that is absolutely accurate as that he feels some sort of crazy compulsion to load up in one position during the off season.  Perhaps he'll grab two or three second basemen, or in this year's case, right fielders.  This leaves the manager in a lurch.  At the moment, the Cubs are using the following outfielders: Matt Murton, Angel Pagan, Daryl Ward (who is DL'd), Cliff Floyd, Jacque Jones, Felix Pie, and Alfonso Soriano.  Ugh, that's a lot of outfielders. 

    In an ideal world, that outfield would get reduced to five, and those five would be Soriano, Pie, and Floyd as starters (on account of how Murton has gotten screwed), with Ward and Pagan as backups.  In other words, the Cubs need to deal or demote everybody else.  Jacque Jones needs to be traded, and Matt Murton might as well spend some time getting ABs in Iowa waiting for his big shot when Floyd gets hurt.  Therefore, I am advocating that the Cubs deal Jones to anybody for anything, or hell, just release the guy.  And demote Murton.

    That would leave the Cubs with a potentially strong outfield, if Pie can keep hitting the way he has been.  But, unless it caused him to go loony, I'd probably move Alfonso and his cannon-arm into right field.  But that could just be me.

  • Fix the infield.  It's not that there's anything particularly wrong with it, but it could be stronger.  Assuming Aramis Ramirez comes back healthy in a week-or-so, I believe the Cubs need to figure out the middle infield in an adequate way.  I think that - regretfully - includes keeping DeRosa at second, and perhaps allowing Theriot and Fontenot to split time at short.  Izturis, like Jacque, needs to go. 

    So, in theory, the Cubs infield should consist of Lee at first, DeRosa at second, Fontenot and Theriot splitting time at short, and Ramirez at third.  If they can't trade him, Izturis would do fine on the bench, where his theoretical defensive skills could be used late in close games.  Also, if the Cubs ever abandoned their crazy notion of needing twelve pitchers, they could go out and try to find a backup infielder who could serve as a pinch-hitter type and help the team out in late innings.

  • Figure something out with Barrett.  He has regressed behind the plate, he's making consistent baserunning blunders, his batting average has dipped into Neifi territory, and he brought on a rage by our ace pitcher unlike anything we've ever seen.  (I'm not blaming Barrett, I'm just pointing out that it happened and he was totally responsible. ...uh, wait, what?)  If he has any trade value left, perhaps it would be sensible to deal him for a catcher with a cannon arm and flimsy stick.  Or, hell, let Hank and Geo Soto split time back there, it doesn't really matter.  Or really work hard with the guy to stop making bonehead mistakes.

And so, as you can see, I believe the Cubs have a bit of work to do.  Shockingly, not too much of it revolves around making big trades.  The Cubs have a lot of tools that they need to use properly, and the only area where they really need to upgrade is the bullpen.  Oh, and my ideal batting order looks like this:

LF Alfonso Soriano
2B Mark DeRosa
1B Derrek Lee
3B Aramis Ramirez
RF Cliff Floyd
C Michael Barrett
CF Felix Pie
SS Theriot/Fontenot

And here's why.  First, I wouldn't prefer that Soriano lead-off.  In fact, I'd probably stick him in the #2 spot, but if he's comfortable there, let him be.  DeRosa actually has the fourth highest OBP on the team behind Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez, plus he's shown some pop, which makes him an ideal #2 guy.  Lee and Aramis speak for themselves.  Cliff Floyd has begun to swing a hot bat, but he still hasn't displayed a ton of power.  Regardless, he's putting up better numbers than anybody who's left, so he gets the job of protecting the cleanup hitter.  Barrett has been playing awfully, and he may actually belong in the #8 spot, but his 9 homeruns is reason enough to let him bat a little higher in the lineup.  And Pie and Theriot/Fontenot are all light-hitting guys with some capability for power (at least Pie and Fontenot have that going for them), and they are speedy.  If anybody has a shot at breaking up a double play ball hit by the pitcher, it's those guys.  That also means there would be a slightly higher chance for somebody to be on base when Soriano jacks one.   Therefore, I bat them 7th and 8th.

I'm not saying this team is playoff bound, but they are in a weak division and they do have talent.  They just might be a few trades and roster moves away from getting consistent.  Let's just hope that the doofs in charge make the right trades and the best roster moves possible.

Pie not DeRosa #2

I really like Pie at #2 (maybe not vs. LHP) I like having the RLR bats at the start of the game and plus Pie seems to be obnoxious to the other teams pitchers. How many more fastballs will D-Lee and A-Ram see when he get's on the base. Also I think that Soriano and Pie really enjoy batting next to each other and this team can use all the chemistry they can get. On a random note, does anyone else think Zambrano should start boxing during spring training, seriously jacking a guy in the face apparently fixed his mechanics. Forget Larry Rothchild we need to get the trainer from Rocky as our pitching coach.

kurts a hater

why didn't u post my comment?
murton sucks!!haha im glad he got sent down

And again

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No!!!

You have to stop posting such things! Jim Hendry could very well actually read such a blog. We have been pining for years for the Cubs to "do baseball" the way intelligent organizations do: trim the fat and build from the bottom. It worked for the Tigers, will work for the D-Backs and Brewers, and has traditionally worked for the Twins, Athletics, and Braves.
Kurt, the problem with pursuing these veterans in a vain attempt at taking the division is that it doesn't work. It didn't work in '05 or '06 for the Cubs, and it wouldn't work this year. By all means, we have to pray that Hendry and McDonough don't proceed to gut what minor league system we have left for some piecemeal, veteran-based "improvements." They wouldn't be doing so to keep the Cubs in the race; they would be doing so to keep the coffers full of fans' money.
I know the Cubs don't have the best farm system, but many teams, when smarting, bring up the little tykes and watch them make contenders of their new homes. All this preference for veterans has been hurting the Cubs for some time now; it doesn't feel like punching myself is the best solution when I have two black eyes and a bloody nose.

I must disagree

The Cubs are a bad example because they've simply sucked for decades, but I think you will find that the majority of playoff bound teams pick up talented veterans along the way for young prospects. Every good team fills a hole somehow, and contrary to your claims, it hasn't entirely worked against the Cubs favor in the history of this team.

On the contrary, the Cubs NEED to trade for talented veterans to compete, and I will be entirely disappointed if they fail to do so, should they still be alive come the trade deadline.

Glad you're not the GM...

Besides the fact that reliever performance in general tends to fluctuate greatly, and picking one up after a brief stretch of strong performance is a HUGE risk, ERA is absolutely the worst statistic with which to measure a reliever. I don't think we need yet another reliever (i.e., another Ohman) who empties the bases every time he comes in, eventually getting the one or two outs he needs before any of his own runners score.

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