Goatriders of the Apocalypse

A look at lineups, take one

This is a rough pass at comparing the relative strength of each team's lineup. I'll be working on revising this probably up until we start Game 1 of the series, if not beyond that.

Rather than simply looking at what each player has done so far this year, we're interested in predicting how well each player will hit in the future. Brian Cartwright, a fellow writer for Statistically Speaking, was gracious enough to share his projections with me. It's a simply fantastic system, and I am very indebted to Brian for his help.

Next step is to guesstimate lineups. That situation is still up in the air, and Goat Friend Bruce Miles says that DeRosa is testing his legs right now. So I took a stab at it as well (everybody else has, right?)

Cubs

Soriano
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Edmonds
Soto
DeRosa
Fukudome
Pitcher

Dodgers

Furcal
Martin
Ramirez
Ethier
Loney
Kemp
Blake
Dewitt
Pitcher

Right now the lineup order is just being used to figure out how to distribute PAs. I also went ahead and changed number of PAs by team based upon team OBP, weighted by lineup order spot. I also used different numbers for each team's pitching, using the team split of BB-Ref for each team's #9 hitter (so it includes a healthy dose of pinch hitting).

To estimate runs, I used Extrapolated Runs. It's a decent linear weights estimator, and it's dirt simple to implement. Hopefully I'll make some refinements to this later on tonight. But for right now, I get 5.50 RPG for the Cubs and 5.29 RPG for the Dodgers. Manny Ramirez has revitalized that lineup, compared to the Juan Pierre/Andruw Jones level of production they got most of the season. But the Cubs are no slouches in the hitting department, and are more balanced top to bottom, I would say.

More later.

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