Could the Cubs win 100?
So, inspired by Kurt’s very similar post, I decided to look at our schedule for the remainder of the season.
I took win percentages from Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA odds report, which is a more complex and accurate version of this. (It regresses a team’s record based on their PECOTA projections, and it uses the Pythagorean win expectation using a strength of schedule adjustment.) Home field advantage was .040, which is probably a little low for this year but it’s applied consistently. (If you have your own notions of home field advantage, fell free to play around with the spreadsheet.) Then I used Bill James’ log5 method to figure out each team’s odds of winning each game.
This doesn’t take into account the change in win expectation based upon the cycling of the starting rotation; obviously the Brewers are more formidable when C.C. Sabathia is on the mound and… less formidable when Jeff Suppan is pitching.
Widget powers, activate! (Fully editable, if you wish!)
So, what's the takeaway?
- The Cubs still have 50% of their games left at home. Sweet.
- We don’t have a particularly tough schedule left. Average adjusted win percentage of our opponents? .476! Add in home field advantage, and our opponents are still on average sub-.500 teams.
- I would love nothing more for the Cubs to go on a hot streak here and push that “99” over on the far right up to a “100.” The Cubs have real 100 win potential, which would be super sweet.
- Our toughest series is probably the four-game set against the Mets; and I’d expect them to be more highly motivated than us at that point, because their lead in their division is slimmer than ours and they don’t have the cushion of the wild card awaiting them.