Did we learn any lessons from Bob Howry?
If I've learned anything from reading Cubs blogs/message boards/etc. over the offseason, it's that Bob Howry is the worst person pretty much in the history of ever. If Bob Howry was the cure for cancer, Cubs fans would rather have cancer.
So let's take a look. Prior to this season, Howry had ERA+s of:
- 140
- 146
- 170
- 159
100 is average, higher is better. He's also been a workhorse as far as the number of innings and appearances he's had. And he's a Proven Closer.
So this year rolls along, and he goes in the tank for an 84 ERA+ ... he's the most reviled person possible.
Is there a lesson to be learned here, folks?
There's several:
- One year of performance is not a good basis on which to evaluate any player, but especially a relief pitcher.
- Relief pitchers, because of how little work they get compared to starters or position players, are more subject to swings of variability and bad luck than other players.
- Because of their unpredictability, and general fungibleness, you're better off not investing large sums of money into them.
So here's what I want you to do. I want you to look at Kerry Wood, not as Kid K, the beloved Cub who struck out 20 Astros and was the longest-tenured member of the roster.
I want you to look at a guy that's coming off exactly one good season as a reliever. A guy who has a long history of injury problems.
And I want you to consider that Wood's salary for next season, from arbitration, could very well be most - if not all - of the remaining salary budgeted for next year's team.
I'm not asking you to like any of this. I'm not asking you to approve. I'm simply asking you to understand. Wood is a risk, and the annals of history are littered with horror stories of overpaying for relief pitching that don't have Wood's vast litany of medical concerns.
If you want to put all your eggs in the Wood basket and go to war next season with the team we had this season, that's fine. That's you're right.
But given the budget that it looks like the Cubs are facing right now, if the team wants to upgrade - right field, shortstop, the rotation, whatever - they had to pay a price for it, and the price seems to have been Kerry Wood.
Again - I'm not asking you to like it. I don't like it. But I think I understand, at least.
Donuts make ya smart!
Henry cuts Wood to free up dollars to pursue improvements. Nicely said. It takes about 90 or so wins to qualify for post season, it's the first 91 outs after the regular season where the Cubs have had real problems.
dude,
spot on. well done.
Just don't buy it
If I believed the money would be invested wisely, then this argument would hold more weight. Hendry's 3 "fixes" in RF since Sammy left town: Burnitz, Jones and Kosuke. All lefties, all disappointments. Meanwhile, our farm system languishes near the bottom of the league, with no real fix in sight. Do I think the risk of another year of Kerry Wood at $10 million is worth it, if it gives us the opportunity for two extra high level draft picks? Absolutely. Gregg-Marmol is a downgrade from Marmol-Wood. We're going to piss the money away anyway, so I don't give a damn if the Cubs save it or not. Should have offered Woody arbitration, and we will pay for it next season.
"Do I think the risk of
"Do I think the risk of another year of Kerry Wood at $10 million is worth it, if it gives us the opportunity for two extra high level draft picks? "
I think that's a winner though.
Regardless of
Hendry's extension, it's shit or get off the pot for him and the Cubs, no later than 2010. Hendry, unlike most GM's that take into account the long as well as short term prospects for the organization, is trying to accomplish a World Championship for the Cubs as Yankee-Light. Hendry either doesn't understand or his under such stress to win now, that he'll be his own worst enemy.
If a team is going to break the bank to win it now, then break the fucking bank.
The flip side is a franchise like the Marlins. They strip the team of any valuable players in order to build a strong farm system. Then wheel and deal for the stud free agents necessary to complete an extremely competitive team and repeat the process as often as necessary.
Of course there is a middle ground here, but managing this balancing act usually begins with a productive farm system. We all applauded the Cubs finally breaking open the piggy bank to finally acquire quality free agents and keep the few we had, but without an underlying productive farm system the Cubs can't get all the pieces they need to be a complete team unless they do the Full-Yankee.
It shouldn't go unnoticed that the Cubs PR machine started spinning the reasons for not going balls out to improve the team almost immediately after the team was embarrassingly bounced out of the first round of the playoffs. They first said the team only needed some minor tweaking and then lowered the boom under cover of the fledgling economy and the unresolved sale of the team, that there was in fact no more money. Lets face it, the new owner may in fact not have any different of an approach to fielding a competitive team than their predecessors, and without a Jockety-like GM, Cubs fans will wait another hundred fuckin' years.