The folks at Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA-backed Projected Standings recently, which basically represents their best statistically-based guess at how each team in MLB will fare in 2010. The Cubs were projected to finish third according to those rankings, behind the Cardinals and Reds.

You're welcome to debate all you want about whether or not the Deadbirds or Stinkcinatti (those are the default insulting versions of each team's name, correct?) are more talented than the Cubs. But I don't think anyone will argue that this team looks primed for a World Series run. Our old guys are older, and not getting any less expensive.

On top of that, the team's financial flexibility appears to have run out. With all the debt the team has taken on following the Ricketts purchase, management's hands are tied when it comes to improving the team in any way that costs money.

I'd argue that this is a good thing for the franchise right now. Let me explain.

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Remember Felix Pie?

He was the latest can't-miss young stud that had a tough time breaking out while wearing a Cubs uniform. After the five-tooler posted a .637 OPS over 83 at-bats in 2008, Hendry&Co. decided to cut the cord, shipping Pie off to Baltimore in exchange for Garrett Olson and Henry Williamson.

Even while he was in Chicago, Pie's defense and speed were impossible to ignore. If only he could've elevated his batting average from the .240 range.

Having said that, at this point I'd like to direct your attention to the numbers Pie put up in the 2nd half of 2009. Over the course of 145 post-All Star break at bats, Pie posted a .290/.346/.497. In the AL East.

So much for that left-handed hitting, plus-powered center fielder.

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Do you think Jeff Samardzija should be a starter or a reliever?

There's a question I'd love to ask Jim Hendry. Then again, I have a pretty good idea of what he'd say: something like, "I don't know."

That much is clear from the way he's handled the 10 Million Dollar Baby. Furthermore, not only does Shark keep getting switched from the rotation to the 'pen, it seemed he spent two out of every seven days on the bus between Chicago and Des Moines last year.

In Hendry's defense, there's a reason why the Cubs have insisted on jerking him around so much.

It's because, for the past few years, they've had a decent baseball team. And when you're that close to the playoffs, it's worth it to toy with a 25-year old fireballer's emotions if it means a game or two in the standings.

When you're that close to the playoffs, you can't afford to "waste at-bats" on a 23-year old left-handed hitting, plus-powered center fielder who can't get his average above .240.

When you're a team that hasn't won the World Series in 100 years with a halfway-decent team on the field, you're always going to feel compelled to try to win now.

Which brings us to 2010.

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Maybe Soriano and Soto will relocate their respective swings. Maybe D-Lee's neck will hold up, and maybe Aramis will play more than 130 games.

Maybe Theriot will ditch the home run swing and get back to a .300 average by flipping singles into right field again. Maybe Jeff Baker and Mike Fontenot will team up to create an effective offensive platoon at second base. Maybe Kosuke Fukudome and Marlon Byrd will end up being above-average hitters.

Unfortunately, none of those "maybes" are anywhere near sure things. (For the record, the likeliest of the bunch in my mind is a major Soto rebound.) Nonetheless, we find ourselves looking at a team that could -- "maybe" -- win the division. But maybe they'll go .500 instead.

In that case, back to the original issue: how does the team benefit from finishing in the middle of the division?

As soon as the Cubs are out of contention, the team can stop worrying about "wasting at-bats" on young developing players, or rushing live arms up into the majors to stay competitive. The Felix Pies of the world (read: Starlin Castro and Josh Vitters) won't suffer from added pressure, and the Jeff Samadzijas (read: Samardzija himself, Andrew Cashner, Jay Jackson, etc. etc.) can be patiently slotted into either a starting spot or a bullpen role.

Let's not sign any more expensive veterans to huge back-loaded contracts just yet. Instead, why not finally give some young talent the chance to develop, and go from there?

I'm not completely giving up on 2010. Only kinda.

The Cubs and Carlos Marmol met halfway today and agreed to a 2010 contract worth around $2.1 million.

In my mind, this is fantastic news.  The arbitration process would have done nothing good for the team or for the player.  Marmol has one of the top three nastiest sliders in all of sports; but last year he frequently lost concentration, walked a ton of men, and also hit a ton as well.  There is plain old wild - an Andy Pratt-esque character, that comes and goes just as quickly.  There is effectively wild - like Kerry Wood, which is usually accompanied by a 100 mph fastball that hurts people when it hits them. 

Carlos Marmol entered his own wild category last year.  Not since Mitch Williams have I seen a guy dig himself more holes, then fill them back in more often than not.  I believe that, as he becomes more mature, that Marmol will harness his stuff and learn to focus on the task at hand.  By all accounts from the beat writers, he is a very immature man, and has nowhere to go but up in that category.  Thus, he still has a tremendous amount of unrealized potential.

He knows that; his agent knows that, and the Cubs know that.  But in an arb hearing, by design, there will be conflict.  Marmol is a very emotional guy, and I don't think he wants to hear about his shortcomings, and how far he needs to go before he truly deserves big money.  He more than likely thinks he deserves it now - he is the closer for the Chicago Cubs, for pete's sake! 

On the other side, obviously Jim Hendry has NEVER officiated an arbitration situation - the last Cubs arb hearing involved Mark Grace!  It is safe to assume that Hendry may be a person who avoids conflict, which is a fine human trait; yet, as the General Manager, perhaps it is a positive thing to call the players' bluff from time to time.  It might in the long run serve as an aid to determining the true worth of your players.

Ryan Theriot is still far apart from the Cubs, and most likely will become the first Cubs arbitration case since Grace.  I for one welcome that particular opportunity.  Theriot is a decent second baseman, playing shortstop, he hits for a high average, but still ends up with a weak OPS, he supposedly adds 'intangibles' to his club, yet he is the dumbest Cubs baserunner now that Ronny Cedeno is carving divots in basepaths elsewhere.

I think an arb hearing will be constructive for the Cubs and The Riot.  He's a tough enough boy to deal with the criticism; in fact, it may not hurt for him to hear it. If he can cut down the mental mistakes in his game, he may end up with a long, productive career.  He is over 30 years old, while Marmol is a young 27.  Both men, if all goes well, will get Paid in this league. 

But I am not yet ready to hear about a man bursting into tears at an arb hearing.  Hooray for the Cubs and Marmol for reaching an agreement before that happened.