Today's re-grabbers - Jason Frasor and Kiko Calero

The case for additional bullpen help: starting from the top: Our closer, Mr. Marmol, is capable of paralyzing hitters.  The problem is, it could be temporary paralysis due to slider, or permanent paralysis due to fastball in temple.  Our set up man, Mr. Guzman, is fragile, currently injured, and relatively stupid.  Our lefties, Mr. Marshall and Mr. Grabow, aren't really anything special, outside of being lefties.  Every one else I can name has less than one year experience in the majors.

The case for Mr. Calero: he may not pass a physical on his shoulder.  However, he has a superior ERA, strikeout/walk ratio, and every other relief indicator the last two plus seasons.  Training camps have started, and this man, who finished last year with an ERA under 2, is still on the outside looking in.  In a way, it appears this guy is a throwback to a simpler time.  His shoulder hurts, dammit, but he still takes the ball and pitches well.  Before the Age of Scrutiny, someone would just sign the guy to a contract and let him pitch.

Yes, this is a franchise who has been burned lately by lame pitchers.  It appears though that we are not the only team to suffer this misfortune.  Mr. Calero seemed to think that his past two years entitled him to a similar two-year commitment by his new team, for mucho dolores.  But, he has overestimated his worth.  At this point, he is likely to accept a decent one-year deal.  His new team will have to pay a few million dollars for one year, for a man whose arm may or may not fall off his shoulder.  But when you consider we are paying Silva the Hutt 14 million dollars American for the next two years, is what Calero wants really that big of a deal?

The case for Mr. Frasor: Jason Frasor has performed in, to the casual fan, anonymity for 5+ years in Toronto, and performed well, if not spectacularly.  This is his 'contract year', and he would probably command a lot of money in the open market for his somewhat above average performance.  Toronto does not appear to be willing anymore to overpay for relievers.

Mr. Frasor is a local boy who would look good in pinstripes.  But I must admit, my interest in him isn't so much based on his own prowess, as it is based on the fact that Frasor would have to be acquired in trade, and that trade could and should include one of our young relievers, and one of my favorite players, Micah (first you get the moneey, then you get the) Hoffpauir.  The Hoff really doesn't fit for us anymore, now that we have Nady, apparently keeping Fontenot (??), and most likely keeping either Chad Tracy and/or Cowboy Millar.  (My money is on Millar, since he might be the only person on the team who may have seen Uncle Lou actually play, and those two can sit around in their tightie whities and reminisce about the old days).  Meanwhile, for some reason, the Hoff seems like a Blue Jay to me, he always did.  He may thrive there.

Prognosis: you will see a trade before you see Hendry roll dice on Calero.  Hopefully that trade includes the Hoff and does not include too many real prospects.

In no way do I disagree with anything Kurt wrote on the last post.  In a year where very little was done in the offseason, save the removal of a soul-sucking parasitic tumor, we Cub fans are subject to a potent concentration of 'wait and see'.

Which, frankly, is the way it should be with so many players signed to long term expensive contracts.  In theory, at the time these contracts were initiated and signed, the player in question was at or near the top of his game,or at least, his usefulness to the Cubs, and for the 3, 4, or God help us, 8 years of the contract, this valuable, 8-figure-making hero of a man should be more than capable of helping us win.  Therefore, on a team with 8 men making more than $10 million in annual salary (including Jabba the Silva), you would assume you have 1/3rd of your roster of All-Star caliber.

It worked out that way in 2008, in which we won 97 games.  Last year, when one of the 8 figure guys had a dislocated shoulder, another had knee surgery, a third had a desperately ill newborn, a fourth had both back problems and temper tantrums, a fifth ended up needing arm and knee surgery, and a sixth was a soul sucking leech...we won 83 games.

Kurt averaged the two outcomes together and set the over/under at 90.  I merely choose to set it at 87.  Because, even if Ramirez is healthy again, and Lilly does recover, and Z acts more adultlike simply due to age alone, and the drain on our economy as well as our oxygen supply, Milton Bradley, is gone from our existence...we still have the corpulent Carlos Silva taking up a roster spot that could be used by a Braden Looper or some other mediocre innings-eater that still would be better than Silva the Hutt.  That's worth three games right there.

Then,of course, we have the Human Hitting Streak, the man who is more of a contradiction than the Scotch-Korean Starburst eater, the most well paid Cub and the actual heart and Key to the Chicago Cubs, #12 in your programs, and #5 in the most highly paid major league humans...

What is Alfonso Soriano bringing to work this year? 

It is funny...yes, I have come out here, repeatedly, in fact, over the past three years and railed on and on about Soriano's isolated style of play.  Some of you read that to mean I was saying he was 'selfish', which has led to the Goatriders meme of saying that "Soriano hit two selfish homers today" or something of that ilk. 

I do not believe that Soriano is a self absorbed player, as Sammy Sosa certainly was.  I don't think he goes back to the clubhouse between innings to check his stat sheet, and I don't think he mopes about an 0-for-4 when we win a game.  It is fact, though, that he has balked at times verbally at his manager's suggestion that his role or position should change.  So what, lots of guys do that.  It is also a fact that his production at the plate tends to trend downward when he does change his position or his place in the order. 

What is also clear, at least to me, that in the first two years of his tenure here, as the leadoff man for the Cubs, he did not operate at the plate in the manner of what I felt we truly needed.  He was a run producer, yes.  He hit a lot of home runs, and that produces runs.  More on that in a minute.  I think, though, what Jim Hendry was hoping to get was more of a Rickey Henderson-esque figure, someone who hits homers, yes, but at other times, draws walks, and otherwise gets on base, makes things happen on the basepaths, rattles pitchers, draws infielders out of position to make plays on stolen bases, etc.

To be fair, Soriano was never a plate discipline guy, so it was unrealistic to believe he would start once he came here. Also, his legs have failed him since he came here.  In fact, this time last year, it appeared his legs were as healthy as they had been since his last year with Washington, and I had predicted a banner year on the basepaths for him.  That worked out well.

What I was hoping for out of him, provided he was hitting leadoff for us, that he would become part of an integrated offense.  For example, if the eighth hitter got on, and the pitcher bunts him over to second, and Soriano comes to the plate, that he would keep the inning going around 40% or more of the time with some sort of base-advancing contribution, a hit, a walk, or a grounder to the right side, something to keep things going  to the heart of the order, where big innings with crooked numbers happen.

But, that isn't what his game is.  He IS hot or cold.  He is not a normal guy, he does not move the game along the basepaths.  No, he is a sixth hitter hitting leadoff, not a true two-outcome guy, but he is a guy who hits a ton of homers, strikes out a lot, and hits a lot of fly balls.  And when he is not going well, he kills rallies by the armfuls.

But why is he such a contradiction?  Because, when he is hot, and he was hot for most of 2007 and 2008, he hits LOTS of homers, which produces a lot of production, and frankly, won us a lot of games we had no business of winning. He is like a secret weapon, who actually isn't so secret.  I mean, if I had the choice of a ham-and-egger who hits singles a lot, and a guy who can mash, sure, gimme the mash.  We NEED the true Soriano, the one that can carry a team for 10 days or two weeks.  I always said he operated independently of the rest of the Cubs offense, and sometimes that has been good, particularly when he bails us out when nobody else is hitting. 

Well, now he is down in the order, where hopefully his streakiness will be somewhat mitigated, and also hopefully a lot of his solo homers to begin games can take place with runners on base.  Also, hopefully, he is healthy enough to play the games, take good swings, hit homers, and not be too much of a tinker in left field. 

Whether you like it, or not, and honestly, I don't...but as Alfonso Soriano goes, so do the Cubs.  Which is probably fair, since he makes the most money.  And, since he's at 80 to 85% these days, I figure so are the Cubs.  So...87 wins, over/under.

UPDATE: look!  Good Soriano news!!

Not too long ago, Goat Reader MSD asked a tough question: do we think the Cubs will win over or under 90 games in 2010?

Sheesh.  Might as well ask me to predict where the stock market will be in six months (altho' I'd be generally inclined to guess "in the toilet"). 

While I can't predict the future of Cubs baseball (altho' I'd be generally inclined to guess 'heartbreak"), I can predict the course of this blog over the next few months.  You'll see cautious optimism from myself, AJ, and possibly Byron and Yarbage assuming they contribute.  We'll talk about trends, streaks, and hopes of a Cubs team that includes healthy Sorianos, Zambranos, and so-on.  You'll also see cautious realism from Rob, who will say early and often that this team does not impress him, who will point out the glaring holes in the lineup, and who will be the first one to call out a player for under-performing. 

Although I'll say things like "anything can happen," (but hopefully in a less ridiculous, cliched manner), and Rob will say things like "book it, they're done," neither of us will really know anything for sure until June or July.  By then, the holes will be glaringly obvious, and the surprises will be slapping us all over our pretty little faces.

In other words, I just took a long time to say "nobody knows."  But if I had to activate my brain in order to guess today ...

Meh.  Seriously.  Nobody knows.  No team in the NL Central really did anything to put themselves in the guerrilla position.  The Cardinals are not exactly world shakers.  The Brewers are not discernibly better.  The Reds have a ton of talent, regrettably in the hands of the most incompetent oaf of a manager in baseball today.  The Pirates are the modern day doormat of the National League. 

If -- really big if -- Geo Soto rebounds, if Derrek Lee doesn't fall off the face of the earth, if Jeff Baker/Mike Fontenot can make for a passable platoon, if Ryan Theriot is used right, if Aramis Ramirez stays healthy, if Alfonso Soriano bounces back, if Marlon Byrd isn't the Next Great Black Bust, if Kosuke Fukudome can step it up just a little bit, if Carlos stays healthy and focused, if Dempster builds on a strong September, if Ted Lilly gets and stays healthy, if Randy Wells isn't the next one-year-wonder, if Gorzelanny or Silva can shock us, if the bullpen in general can be relied upon, and if Carlos Marmol rediscovers his control and assumes the closer role ...

If all (or most) of those things happen, then the Cubs will be tough to beat.  They will be a 90 win team.  They will be playoff bound.  But that's an awful lot of "ifs."  So, if you're looking ahead to September/October, and are trying to plan your life accordingly, I would caution you from booking a trip to Chicago for those months.  You might have fun in the windy city, you may enjoy some fine dining, some lovely ladies, and maybe even some fantastic night life, but you aren't too likely to enjoy playoff Cubs baseball.

But really, nobody knows.  Not even Jeebus. 

Today's most interesting Cub-related news comes from a report filed by Bruce Levine, which says that Derrek Lee isn't interested in negotiating a contract extension during the season.

That line of discussion raises a question: should the Cubs be interested in negotiating a contract extension for Lee at all?

Sure, there are enough reasons to support investigating what it would take to bring Derrek back. He's a fantastic hitter, an annual Gold Glove candidate, and perhaps most importantly, the closest thing this team has had over the past decade to a bona fide clubhouse leader. Lee is soft-spoken, mature, and as far as I can tell an all-around upstanding guy.

He was also an absolute beast in 2009. He truly carried the team, with a .306/.393/.579 slash line that somehow understates his contributions over the course of an extremely tough season (I mean, when Aramis was injured, did he ever have any sort of protection in the lineup?).

However...

Like it or not, there are other factors that might suggest the Cubs might be better off going a different route at first base.

Perhaps the most obvious is Lee's age. At 35, Derrek's best days as a hitter are likely behind him. Lee defied logic last year, turning in one of his best offensive seasons ever, just a year after posting one of the lowest slugging percentages of his career. Even in this deflated market, a hitter of Lee's stature will likely demand at least a two-year deal worth a total of $20 million or more; we'll see what sort of preview his 2010 campaign provides for his likely future production. And oh, don't forget the trouble Lee's neck has given him lately -- it's so bad that a celebratory helmet slap kept him out of at least one game last year.

Then there's the team's status, both long-term and short-term.

Short-term: the team continues to lack a left-handed RBI producer. First base is probably the easiest place to hide a big bat with lackluster defense. If the team continues to be interested in adding a lefty bat to the lineup (admittedly, maybe they're not), 1B might be the easiest place to do that.

Long-term: this team's finances are, in a word, crippling. Soriano, Zambrano, Ramirez, Dempster, and Fukudome are all owed plenty of money. Does it make sense to guarantee another eight-figure sum of money to an older player? If the team underwhelms again in 2010, do we consider the window on this group of players to be closed, and try to build around younger players like Soto, Castro, et al?

It's a tough spot, and probably one of the most important story lines going into next season. Cub fans know: with Lee, it's not just about OPS and wins above replacement. Lee's a leader. If you believe at all in intangible value in baseball, then you better believe that Lee meant more to last year's team than 35 home runs and a .306 batting average.

How the Cubs handle Lee's contract situation will say a lot about how this team plans on approaching the next few years.

Surely you've noticed that, in the past few weeks, GROTA hasn't exactly been spewing content.  This evoked one of our writers to send out a team EMail yesterday asking if the blog was officially dead.

I assure you, sir, that this blog is merely restin'!

Maybe it's an indication of how boring in general the off season has been.  Players have reported to Spring Training, many of them ahead of schedule, and we're all like, meh.  Ted Lilly may or may not have blown a wheel (reports say he hasn't), and we're all like, whateves. 

This hasn't exactly been the most confidence-evoking off season in the history of the Cubs.  There were no massive trades, no promising developments, nothing exciting at all, in fact, unless you want to count the Geo Soto weight loss as an event to drive content.  Hell, really the most exciting happening of the off-season was the further descent into insanity of many of the Cub bloggers out there, and even that is old news at this point.

So if you're wondering, then, about how often you can hit up this blog for fresh content; if you are doubting our ability to provide you with Cub stories exciting and new, then I say to you don't worry.  Come aboard, we're expecting you ... the Cub boat!  Da da da da daaaa...

Crap.  Sorry about that.  I temporarily lost my shit in the last paragraph there.  I blame, again, the boring off season.  Anyway, we should have daily content for you starting in March, and I'll work a little harder to keep things fresh and updated between now and then.  I promise. 

On a team with very few impact trades, signings or other acquisitions, the legitimate media is picking up on the terrible news that reliever Angel Guzman lost his brother this winter, a victim of a shooting in Caracas, Venezuela.  Caracas has been listed by one world agency as the most crime-ridden city on Earth, and although Guzman has managed to move his mother and younger sister somewhere nice and safe (the Dominican Republic?!?), he has not yet able to afford to move the rest of his brothers and sisters, so there they stay in Venezuela.

I am going to go ahead and write this, even though my gut tells me to just drop it.

This was Guzman's first arbitration-eligible year, and he received a raise for 2010 to $825,000, after at least three years of making close to the major league minimum.  He made $420k last year, $400k in 2008 and $380k in 2007, a mere pittance in major league standards, but I am sure all here (maybe except Chuck) would trade places with Guzman right now.   As a resident of the Cubs' 40-man roster since his big minor league season of 2003, he has presumably made more than the $800 a month most minor leaguers start with.  I am sure he was signed for next to nothing, but in the past three years, Guzman has made over $1.2 million, not including any bonuses, endorsements, or other subsidies all the big leaguers enjoy. 

1 million might not be enough to relocate his family to, say, Barrington or Bannockburn.  But I can't imagine it would cost that much to fly them all to the DR and set them up in a house there, if it was a matter of life and death, as he is now making it out to be.  As of right now, his remaining siblings still live there, even though his brother was murdered.

Pardon my cynicism, but this little story just doesn't pass the sniff test.  I think perhaps his siblings remain in Caracas because they want to be there.  I realize, also, that Venezuela is a very violent place where the families of athletes are targeted, but that is usually kidnappings for ransom, and other methods of extortion.  Generally, even in Caracas, people aren't gunned down entirely at random.  Fact is, although I know nothing about these people, or their lives, it is just as reckless and false for someone to assume this crime was random as it would be for me to assume that it was not done at random.

My point?  I guess it is that major league ballplayers are just as full of crap as we are.  I mean, we know about all the felons, the drug abusers, the wife beaters, the steroid cheats, and the guys like Milton Bradley who are just plain pains in the ass.  Until today, all anyone knew about Angel Guzman was that he was a guy who undeniably had talent once upon a time, spent the next few years constantly injured, and has rather surprisingly become a durable member of our pen.  We all figured that at some point, he would fall apart physically, because that was what his history suggests.  So far, he really hasn't.

But other than that, he was rather non-descript in terms of his clubhouse presence.  But even the most mundane of players are capable of having profoundly stupid opinions.  I am not  faulting him for saying what he said.  I am faulting him for his lack of judgment.  If a man who has made over a million dollars the last three years really believes he could not afford to have 'saved' his family from almost certain death in the world's most dangerous city, then how do we trust this person to know what pitch to throw to Albert Pujols with men in scoring position?

I know there are a bunch of you who are just FOAMING at the mouth right now because I have "made a leap", but you are the same bunch of lip-twiddling newbs who completely DISCOUNT the human factor in sports.  Baseball players are not a bunch of robots who have their projected production programmed inside them for a given year, and then they just propel themselves out onto the field to fulfill their pre-destined numbers.  You same people had the nerve to tell me that human factors don't matter in life - that you are capable of doing your job perfectly day after day while your co-workers who exist in the cubes 1 meter away from you snivel on about their miserable lives day in, day out?

We don't live in vacuums; we don't all walk through life with horse blinders and iPods stuck over our eyes and ears, and are completely oblivious to everyone else's human failings.  No, the Cubs don't all have to love each other, holding hands, and singing.  But if THIS team is ever going to make it over the 102 year hump they are stuck behind, everyone involved has to work hard AND smart. 

And, based on today's story, Angel Guzman is either dumb, or full of crap.  Or a tremendously poor handler of money.  Which falls under dumb. 

I know this sounds less than sympathetic to a man who lost his brother to gun crime. I do feel sorry for the crime having taken place, and I do feel sorry for him, his mother, and the rest of his family.  But this story as it is just don't ring true, and it raises a red flag on a team that cannot afford one.

I'm beginning my third decade of being a Cubs fan, and I can't remember not caring about the team this much since probably 2002. Truth be told, I'm more excited about the upcoming Chicago Fire season (new coach, couple of new foreign players I know nothing about, but who just have to be awesome because they're foreign, and a new formation with "attractive attacking soccer"), than I am about the Cubs.

In a moment of barely-concealed hope, my mother confided in me that she thought I was maybe growing up and moving on in life (because that's what real adults do)... but she just doesn't understand... she doesn't understand the soul-crushing weight of a team that thinks it can milk it's fans for every last dollar while not even pretending to improve itself on the diamond.

Did any one else make a half-hearted attempt to nab some tickets on Friday, but give-up at the first sign of technical difficulties? I did.

Rob's right (see below), the most exciting team the Ricketts have done since purchasing the club was to sign Rudy Jaramillo to be the new hitting coach, (well, I guess the ice-rink in the parking lot was pretty exciting too!) and that indeed reminds me of the time in which the best thing the beat writers could come up to write about was Jeff Pentland's work with Sammy Sosa and the toe-tap.

Yet, after the soul-crushing that was 2002, the 2003 season started similarly to this year (albeit minus the new coach and 'fresh approach' in the front office). The potential exists on our roster for a good 80+ wins, and if we catch a lucky streak here or there, perhaps trade for a sausage beater, a fast dude, and a new diamond-in-the-rough franchise player, then maybe we could sneak in as the wild-card, catch a hot-streak in October... and really lay a foundation... for jacking up ticket prices over the next six years.

You scoff? Hey, "It Could Happen" you just gotta "Believe."

Predictions, Projections, and Psychotic Bloggers.  In the shortest month of the year, the month in which Pitchers and Catchers report, predictions, projections, and psychotic bloggers go together like peas-n-carrots, or pro athletes-n-Kardashians.

Like the rest of you, I've had a long, dreary winter to think about the State of the Cubs.  Actually, probably more than the rest of you, since I have been functioning as a ward of the state since New Years' Eve.  And what conclusion have I drawn with my massive chess club brain, and all the time I've had to sit here and compile? Well, in 50 words or less:

The soulless corporation sold the Cubs to actual people.  The new owners seem more interested in Wrigley Field than the Cubs.  Their biggest moves, so far, have been the wacky hire of an expensive coach, the trade of a discontented yet talented black guy, and the refurbishment of the bathrooms.  OMG!!  We have returned to the P. K. Wrigley era!!

I tell you kind people that I don't even have my sarcasm key held down as I type all this.  However, I understand the special financial circumstances the Ricketts are under at the present moment, and while I might and should expect them to chuck the general ledger aside and just Win, baby?  It appears that they are digging in for the long haul as owners.  It is clear that the Tom Ricketts does not share the same urgency for a winner as I do.  It is obvious that he and his family will not go broke by winning at all costs.  There seems to be a four-year period that they need to pay down a special loan that they hadn't counted on having to use when they first made the offer for the Cubs.

Just, coincidentally, this is about the same amount of time that the Cubs still need to pay Carlos Zambrano and Alfonso Soriano.  I suppose if I were the billionaire owners of the Cubs, and although I am a fan, I am not as overwrought as the guy writing on that blog.  And, if  I had several all-star ballplayers that I had to pay eight figure salaries to, I would expect the players to go out, and win, with minimal help from me.  And, when their contracts are finally paid off, and my special financial deal is finally satisfied, I will finally adopt the degree of urgency that the blogger has, and I will hire my own General Manager, and go after the players I really want, and win at all costs.

So, when all was said and done this winter, our roster is fairly static, so it ought to be fairly easy for us to Preview the 2010 Season, one Cub at a time!  We pretty much know who we have, and what we have, and between now and Opening Day in Atlanta, we're gonna pass our sweet-and-savory flavor along to you in single player slices.  So come back, early and often, because this is a fun time of the year - in fact, most years, it's the most fun time of the year.

Let's hope not, for 2010, though.

Last season was a disappointment for Cubs fans, but I can think of at least one good thing that came as a result: Alfonso Soriano is no longer in the leadoff spot.

The guy was never leadoff material. But for some reason, up until last season he would always seem to struggle when moved down in the order as a Cub. According to Yahoo! Sports' situational stats, he was hitless in 10 lower-in-the-order at bats in 2008, and went 6-for-37 (.162 batting average) in similar situations in 2007. Of course, you and I know that's far too small a sample size to consider meaningful, but it was enough for Lou to keep Soriano at the top.

That is, until last season, when Fonzi hit .228 out of the one-hole.

With Soriano now seemingly entrenched in the 6th spot, Lou has an opportunity to place high on-base guys in the leadoff spot to start the season. Today, it was announced (to great tweetfare -- get it, like fanfare?) that Ryan Theriot and Kosuke Fukudome would get the bulk of that newly available action.

Piniella says he'll be using a leadoff platoon, putting Kosuke 1st against righties, and moving Theriot up against lefties. Do the numbers support Sweet Lou's decision?

Indeed, they do. Ryan and the Fukster have on-base percentages of .386 and .387 respectively against opposite-handed pitchers (with Theriot striking out just 35 times in 520 career plate appearances against lefties!). Compare that to Soriano's career on-base percentage of .326 -- bleh.

If the Cubs get 700 plate appearances out of their leadoff men this year, those 60 points of OBP translate to roughly 40 more runners on base in front of our two, three and four hitters.

That works for me.

No, this is not an article about Mark Prior.

Since we're still waiting under a thick blanket of snow for Spring Training to start, I thought I'd open a topic for some lively discussion and debate: which Cub is the franchise player? 

Is it Carlos Zambrano, an under-30 pitcher with a fat contract and ace-like aspirations?

Could it be Derrek Lee, the most productive Cubs first baseman since Hall of Famer Ernie Banks?

Maybe you think it's Aramis Ramirez, the cock-fighting Dominican Republican, who broke the 30-year Curse of Santo?

Or is it Ryan Theriot, the scrappy, white shortstop who boldly leads off and puts up numbers that makes only his momma proud?

The topic is yours.