Seth McClung (3-1, 3.56 ERA) vs. Ryan Dempster (4-5, 4.09 ERA)
Story-Lines
I think that Kyle summed it up rather nicely when he wrote: "THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT SERIES OF OUR ENTIRE LIVES."

The Cubs are a team who have been under-performing so often this year that it's hard to justify the inclusion of "under" in that description nowadays.  They have ungodly talented hitters who just aren't hitting.  They've got relief pitchers with ice water in their veins who are about as reliable as a tool bought at a Dollar Store.  They've got a manager with winning in his blood who can't seem to do anything right. 

And now they've got a chance to hurdle their way above the first place Brewers in one fell swoop. 

Well, sadly my friends this is not the movies.  Willie Mays Hays isn't here to make some kind of impressive (and entirely unrealistic) base-stealing play.  Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn is neither here to notch an impressive victory nor to sleep with all the hookers of Division Street.  The Cubs could leapfrog the Brewers but it would take some kind of minor -- nay, major -- miracle for it to actually happen.

Still, let's just think about it for a second.  The Cubs, sweeping the Brewers, smacking around the Braves, and then demolishing the Cardinals.  That feeling in your gut that you had just now?  That's optimism, my friends.  Cherish it while you can.

Who's Hot
Jake Fox - 9 for his last 27, batting .333 with 2 homeruns

Geovany Soto - 7 for his last 23, batting .304 with a double, triple, and homer

Sam Fuld - 2 for 4 this season.  Actually I just wanted to mention him as a way to congratulate him on getting his first-ever major league hits, and for making another outstanding defensive play recently.  Fuld may come from the Doug Dascenzo School of Athleticism, but I'd say he's earned a stay in the Majors based on his head-breaking hard play.

Dave Patton - As mentioned perhaps by Nick V (sorry I can't remember for sure, it may also have been AJ) since April 29th, Patton's line is as follows: 13.2 IP, 13 hits, 7 BB, 4 ER, 2.63 ERA.  I'm not sold on Patton, but used sparingly and if he can pitch this effectively then I'll take back most of the mean things I've said about his mother.  (But she's still a hater of cheese)

Kevin Gregg - His May line: 11.2 IP, 7 saves, 3.86 ERA.  His June line: 13 IP, 5 saves (2 blown), 2.77 ERA. 

Who's Not
In the name of optimism, we'll skip this one. 

Conclusions
I made this point earlier in the day and I will make it again now.

Stop being a Cubs fan for a second.  Pretend you support the Brewers or Cardinals, and you always have.

It's July 2nd.  The team favored to win your division has been struggling along all season long.  And here's your team, a mere 4 -- or 8 -- games over .500, only 3.5 -- or 2.5 -- games ahead of the dangerous, sluggish Cubs.

Tell me you're not worried.  Tell me that you have written the Cubs off.  Tell me either of those things and I will call you a liar and an idiot.

We are so caught up in our Cubbie Mentality that we've forgotten a few things ... all the crap that's ever happened means nothing this year.  If the Cubs and Brewers were in opposite places in the standings, we'd be crapping our collective drawers right now.  So rather than taking this pervasive, unending perspective that these are the Cubs -- so of course they'll falter and eventually fade -- maybe we should consider that maybe, just maybe, talent will win out.

That's not being an optimist, or a Pollyellon, by any means.  It is simply recognizing that -- say it with me now -- the Cubs are not cursed.  Get over this ridiculous sense of hopelessness and have some frickin' balls for once, Cub fans!

Overview
Let’s see, how do I put this modestly? Hmmm. Ah screw it.

THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT SERIES OF OUR ENTIRE LIVES.

Well, not really. But I it’s kind of important or something. Think of it this way: If the Cubs sweep this 4-game series with the Brewers, then they could be in first place. However if they are swept, then they could be in last. Thanks mediocre NL Central.

Anyway, the Brewers come in 5-5 over their last 10 games with their most recent game being a 1-0 loss to the Mets at home. Milwaukee was 5-4 at Wrigley last season and this will be their first trip to the Cathedral in ‘09.

As for the Cubs, they’re coming off a hellish road trip (3-7) that has had players and fans alike tearing each other apart. Let me just say thank God for the Pirates. Taking two of three from Shatsburgh was probably more important for the confidence of this team than we realize. The Cubs should be carrying some of that momentum into the series (the important word here is “should”).

The Matchups
Thursday, July 2nd - Seth McClung vs. Ryan Dempster
McClung (Milwaukee’s more ginger and right-handed version of Sean Marshall) made his first start of the season against the Giants at home and was knocked around quite a bit. Being used mostly as a relief pitcher this season, I’d guess it will take a him a few more starts to stretch out the arm. So I’d expect him to be out by the fifth inning. Getting to McClung early and working high pitch counts should be the offense’s goal.

Dempster seems to pitch better at Wrigley this season than on the road, so he’s got that going for him. Hopefully the comforts of home will help Demp get a handle on his control because this dude needs to stop walking people. Unfortunately the Brewers are 2nd in the NL in walks. Fear the walk people.

Friday, July 3rd - Jeff Suppan vs. Carlos Zambrano
Guess what Phil Rogers? Carlos Zambrano is still on the Chicago Cubs. Yet amazingly you still have a job. It’s a crazy world we live in.

So what if Big Z is a little loco. At least someone on this team is showing some passion. I don’t expect things to change Friday and I’m thinking Scarlos has one of his better outings of the season.

As for Suppan, what can I say? The guy is the definition of “meh”-ish. The elements are ripe for a beat down.

Saturday, July 4th - Braden Looper vs. Rich Harden
Another Cardinals reject and another saucy matchup for the Cubs. Although Looper held the Cubs to only one run in five innings earlier this season, I like it when this lineup faces familiar foes.

Welcome back Rich Harden. Sure your gem was against the Pirates – whom my 72-year-old grandmother could probably throw a scoreless inning against based on the way they played this past series – but I tip my hat to you sir. Maybe this is the start of a dominating run for Rich…or maybe he’ll go to Wrigley and stink it up like he has all season (2-3 with a 6.31 ERA at home).

Sunday, July 5th – Mike Burns vs. Ted Lilly
Me likey Ted Lilly at Wrigley. Especially his 1.85 ERA while pitching at the Friendly Confines this season. I can’t remember the last time I saw a pitcher on the Cubs roster who was so consistently dominant at Wrigley and so consistently subpar on the road. Then again, I also drink a lot.

I really don’t know much about Mike Burns and I’m just trying to make it through this paragraph without referencing a “Simpsons” joke. What I can tell you is that this will be his first start on the road. Pretty tough considering it is at Wrigley during a primetime broadcast. I wish him nothing but back luck

Conclusion
If this series were being played in Milwaukee, I would be deeply worried. But it’s not, so tough nards for the Brewers. Not facing Yovani Gallardo means the Cubs have the starting pitching advantage across the board, which tells me it is imperative for the offense to score early. The Brewers’ bullpen has been surprisingly solid this season (especially Trevor Hoffman), so don’t expect many come-from-behind wins if the Cubs are trailing late.

I’m not going to predict a sweep either way, but the Cubs should win 3 of 4 if the starting pitching continues to give quality starts.

Go Cubs.

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Uh, not really.

Jeff Baker, the Rockie backup corner infielder, who is hitting even worse than any of the Cubs, is now all ours. 

This is curious, considering we now have four first-basemen on the 25 man roster (the team has not as of yet revealed who will be going down - it better not be Blanco).  Also curious since we will probably get ARam back on Monday. 

Nope, THIS is not the trade that will bring me back into the fold of Kool-Aid drinking zealots.  But I don't see how it can hurt, either, Alberto Alberquerque be damned.

Update: Ryan Freel just got DFA'd to make room for Baker. Works for me! -AJ

If these Cubs are going to do anything in October, they've gotta be able to take a regular season, three-game series from a team like the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Fortunately, they were able to do that today.

Aside from Randy Wells continuing to outdo himself, the story from tonight's game has to be the pleasantly surprising performance of one Sam Fuld. Sam went 2-for-4 from the leadoff spot, including a double to start a game, and also walked once.

One other special surprise: Fukudome hit a home run! Crazy!

One more Randy Wells comment: he's chalked up another start in which he allowed one or fewer extra base hits. His allowed slugging percentage is a paltry .328 at this point.

It kinda feels like the Cubs can't win unless they hold the opposing team to zero or one runs. Fortunately, they've been able to do that fairly consistently.

Kudos to Wells, Fuld, the Fook-ster, Derrek Lee, and perhaps most importantly, the New York Mets, who took down the Brewers tonight. Three and a half out, with a whole half-season to go!

Additional Notes from Kurt
Although the Cubs held the lead all night, Lou Piniella finally exploded in a fit of ANGER and got himself expelled from the game.

The short of this series is that -- although the Cubs got shut out by a pitcher coming soon to a softball game near you -- the Cubs took 2 of 3 on a road series (something they haven't done a lot this year) against a crappy team overplaying their talent. Naysayers -- also known in some circles as "realists" -- will point out that beating the Pirates means about as much as successfully breathing. But I say that, on the contrary, every win is important even if they are to be expected. Besides, the Cubs are playing two out of their next three series against the Brewers and Cardinals -- if they had entered the up-coming four gamer after having lost to the Pirates, I think we'd all be going to games with our hangin' nooses around our necks.

I will say that I completely understand the negativity -- obviously. We've been saying since May that the Cubs are only a few games out, and all they need to do is string together a series of wins and it will suddenly be their division to lose. That's true but it's a lot harder than a three-dozen-or-so word sentence makes it out to be. In fact we've been saying it for so long that the season has now slipped into July, with the All Star Game looming. And we're probably wrong for feeling this way but the Cubs are playing with every appearance of time running out on them before they get their acts together.

Then again, if we were fans of the Brewers or Cardinals, I suspect that in our secret places we would be pissed off and perhaps even a little terrified of the fact that our teams have failed to spread the field with a team as potent as the Cubs creeping along behind them.

Perhaps we are so used to this being the Cubs, for gawdssakes, that we are forgetting how we would feel if the Cubs were in the place of the Cardinals right now. We'd be in a panic. We'd be furious at our team for failing to take advantage of a weak division. In other words, even if things were different we'd still be acting the same -- and that says a lot about our sanity or lack thereof. So I'll conclude my tack-on recap with the following, indesputable (not even by you, Rob) observation:

Perhaps it really still is ours to lose.

Rob: indisputable.  Anyway, only a moron would state that, statistically, the Cubs are out of the running when they are 3.5 games out with 85 games to go.

However, the Cubs have played .493 ball this year.  It is indisputable that they have the capability to play better ball.  You may believe they will, due to the logic that they are better than this.  I have not seen anything thus far in 2009 to lead me to believe that they are.  They have looked like a .500 team from day one.  They have some decent days, and some miserable ones. 

So do we all, I suppose.  Then again, I haven't deluded myself into thinking I am going to win the Employee of the Year at my job, and I am also not going to delude myself into thinking that we will win four more games than the Brewers AND the Cardinals the rest of the way.  The Brewers have a better lineup than we do on our best days, and the Cardinals are better managed, both Generally and on the Field. 

So, unless we make a good trade, or unless guys like Soto, Bradley, Zambrano and Soriano do an about-face, we won't be able to make up even the meager deficit we have now. 

Current Record: 37-38
Position in the NL Central: 4th place, 3.5 games out
Best Possible Record: 124-38
Worst Possible Record: 37-125
Record needed to win 110: 73-14
On Pace For: 80-82