Goatriders of the Apocalypse

Archive - Nov 21, 2009

Date

Dabbling in trade rumors: a USA Today quote.

Cubs front-office people acknowledge liking Granderson, but if top
prospects such as shortstop Starlin Castro, third baseman Josh Vitters
or right-handed pitcher Andrew Cashner make up any of the asking price,
Hendry will say, "No, thank you." - USA Today

That's "or," not "and."

Cubs Lineup: Is it broke? Why fix it?

Again, not feeling wordy, so let me quickly brighten up your Saturday with an idea for a line-up for 2010. I'll let you fill in the hatred/love in the comment section.

Against RHP:

1) Milton Bradley, RF (yes, we should keep him)
2) Ryan Theriot, SS
3) Derrek Lee, 1B
4) Aramis Ramirez, 3B
5) Kosuke Fukudome, CF (yes, he should play center)
6) Alfonso Soriano, LF
7) Geovany Soto, C
Cool Jeff Baker, 2B

Against LHP:

1) Milton Bradley, RF
2) Mike Cameron, CF (yes, we should sign him)
3) Derrek Lee, 1B
4) Aramis Ramirez, 3B
5) Jeff Baker, 2B
6) Alfonso Soriano, LF
7) Geovany Soto, C
Cool Ryan Theriot, SS

Would I take Halladay? Yes.

I don't have the loquacious bug this morning, so let me just stick to bullet points on this one.

  • If Soriano (knee), Soto (shoulder, oblique, waistline), and Ramirez (shoulder) are as healthy in 2010 as they were in 2009, nothing will matter -- the team will suck.
  • If, instead, they are healthy, our offense will be vastly improved. We have the pieces to score runs, I promise.
  • In March 2009, Z, Lilly, Demp and Harden were sure things for the rotation, and Marshall, Heilman, and Gaudin were duking it out for the fifth rotation spot.
  • This March, Z, Demp and Wells will be warming up, Lilly will be recovering from shoulder surgery, and we'll be crossing our fingers on either Marsh or Shark figuring out how to pitch more than 4 innings a start while keeping the ERA under 6.00.
  • Hallady dominated in the AL. The NL is worse than the AL (see M Holliday, C Lee, C Sabathia, et al).
  • To a large extent, you have to remember: prospects are prospects (see F Pie, C Patterson, et al).

So yeah, in a nutshell, that's my case for trading Castro (lots of people love him, but others have cited flaws in his game), Vitters (absolutely NO plate patience whatsoever), and CashNER (might not stick as a starter) for Halladay.

Of course, if the deal were made, I would then bet a ton of money on the fact that Halladay would soon need Tommy John surgery, Cashner would be a lights out starter, and Castro and Vitters would both be perrenial All-Stars at SS and 3B, the two toughest positions to field beyond center.

Believe it or not, I do not advocate the rumored Halladay trade

So, what am I thinking to the Muskrat report that the Jays are asking us for our young-uns?  Assuming, of course that it is, you know, true?

My first thought is immediately "Is Toronto out of its freakin' mind?"  Because, unless Roy Halladay is some sort of automaton with impervious skin, if you have the Roy Halladay, don't you wish to avoid upsetting the Roy Halladay by shamelessly shopping him around for other teams' whelps?

Then, second of all, remember how cynically I thought about all the Starlin Castro hype that seemed to crop up from nowhere about a month ago?  Well, I would assume Toronto would have done some evaluation before proposing such a trade.  Perhaps it is NOT all hype?  Maybe Castro, Vitters, and Cashman really are THAT good? 

Ultimately, though, we have to examine our own situation when making a decision on a classic short-sell like this one.  I have taken more than ten opportunities in the past two years to come out here and lecture on the importance of a Staff Ace, and conversely, the difficulty of NOT having a Staff Ace when it comes to winning championships, particularly when you are climbing the cosmic mountain of 102 straight seasons without a championship.  Halladay would absolutely look smashing in Cubs pinstripes next year!

But, I would only make this totally future-mortgaging move if it were the only difference between us winning and losing in 2010.  And I do not think that bringing in Roy Halladay, alone, will win us a pennant next year.  He can come in here, throw 240 innings, log an ERA under 3, lead and mentor Dempster, Zambrano, Lilly and Wells, and yet we very well might end up behind the Cardinals again next year because our outfield can't hit, our middle infield can't field, and God only knows how Soto comes back in 2010?

As much as I covet the man, I do not make this trade, unless there is a viable plan in place to rehabilitate the lineup.  That task comes first.  We can resurrect Walter Johnson, Warren Spahn, Cy Young and Sandy Koufax and we still won't win dick with this batting order. 

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