One of my commenters from my post earlier today went ahead and outlined all the moves he would make for 2009.  Love 'em or hate 'em (hate), I think his premise is a good one - let's some of us blog on out the next few days, set up your Dream 25 for 2009.  You can go whole hog crazy, or you can play it close to the ol' MacFail sweatervest.  Let us know what moves you'd make, and give us your opening day 25. 

I have mine here on the steno pad on my desk.  But I was raised to let my guests have their turn first, before I took mine.  If I brought out a Mr. Freeze for myself, that I needed to bring one for everyone else out there, except for Jeffy.  He's diabetic.  I would just bring him an ice cube.

Please keep in mind some of the guidelines I stuck out there last month.  These things basically still apply.

Robothal has more Peavy:

Padres GM Kevin Towers rolled into the meetings Saturday, a day before most teams were set to arrive. He doesn't necessarily expect to trade right-hander Jake Peavy this week. Frankly, I'd be surprised if he did.

Towers' problem is that he gave Peavy full no-trade protection through 2010 when he signed the pitcher to a contract extension last December.

Thus, Peavy effectively controls the process, and none of his five preferred National League teams represents an easy match. ... The Cubs could grow more interested as they face the potential loss of free-agent right-hander Ryan Dempster, but their talent isn't as appealing.

The UT's perspective:

In return for ace Jake Peavy, the Padres want compelling talent more than an offer built on bulk.

“To me, it's quality, not quantity,” General Manager Kevin Towers said. “To me, any deal is going to be quality more than quantity. It can be two or three (players) if it's the right two or three.”

...

Towers said several clubs have shown interest in Peavy, a 27-year-old who won the Cy Young Award in 2007 and is guaranteed $63 million over the next four years. He added that he is “focused on three” clubs that Peavy has said he might favor.

Towers declined to identify the three but said that "if any is willing to step up, there's a deal there."

Most likely, those teams are the Cubs, Braves and Dodgers, who are the teams rumors have focused on (the Cardinals and the Astros are the other two clubs on Peavy's list, but they seem to be outside the running). So it seems the Cubs may have an acceptable offer to make to the Padres, even if it wouldn't be their first choice.

Bruce Miles talks about retaining our own free agent pitching:

Right now, Dempster looks the better bet to remain a Cub. He and Hendry have a good relationship, and both sides seem to want to make a deal even though Dempster has filed for free agency.

Wood and Hendry go back to 1995, but if Wood is looking for a multiyear deal to finish games for the Cubs after saving 34 this year, the Cubs may be willing to let him go and promote Carlos Marmol from setup man to closer.

The Cubs seem more inclined to want Wood back with a one-year deal plus an option year or two. But with many clubs needing relief pitching, Wood may find his three- or four-year deal on the open market.

"I've had some conversations with both their agents," Hendry said. "That'll probably pick up in the next week."

The Trib addresses the great right field question:

As for the need for a new right fielder, the plan of platooning Fukudome and Reed Johnson in center was mentioned by Piniella in his Daily News interview, suggesting Felix Pie is on the way out and the Cubs either will seek a left-handed-hitting right fielder or move Mark DeRosa to right and look for a lefty-hitting second baseman who can lead off.

The Cubs of course already have a decent lefty-hitting second baseman in house, but nobody's ever confused Mike Fontenot for a leadoff hitter. The only free agent I know of that fits the bill is Orlando Hudson; Furcal hits lefty and leads off, but would probably want to stick at shortstop (especially if his double play partner was Ryan Theriot).

UPDATED 12:35: A few more logs to toss on the fire.

The Cubs are one of the teams linked to Japanese pitching phenom Junichi Tazawa, who went undrafted based upon his own request. He's probably still a few years away - think of him as a first round draft pick.

The Cubs are continuing to be active in signing prospects out of Korea.

For an insider's view of how the offseason goes, Beyond the Boxscore interviews Royals Asst. GM Dean Taylor. Padres Asst. GM Paul DePodesta discusses their plans going into the winter meetings.

...the past couple of years excepted.  Hey, it isn't every year that we repeat as Postseason Participants.  Most years, right here, right now, is the best time of year.  This is where we dream our dreams about bringing in exciting new names, and righting the ship. 

This year, of course, the ship floats pretty well.  The rudder might be bent a little, or maybe the engines need tuning.  So we can be somewhat choosy when we discuss our options. 

For example, the fact that Colin took it upon himself to proclaim the Official Goatrider Stance on Ken Griffer, Jr. was not at all presumptuous.  In fact, I will throw one more name on the list that he omitted.  In all seriousness, absolutely straight up truth, if the choice for 2009 Cubs RF was: Griffey or Sosa, I would take Sosa.  And you ALL know that I hates me some Sammy Sosa, mighty fierce.  So I hope that ends all the Griffey talk once and for all?

And as much as all of us would like to see Adam Dunn bat fifth for us, because it would be SO cool for the team to issue actual safety warnings for spectators watching games from rooftops on Sheffield, I think I disagree with Colin here, since he put Dunn on his list of better RF's than Griffey.  Fielding wise, I would have to go with Griffey here, by a nose.   So unless Soriano tragically chokes on a wayward piece of conch or grouper, there is absolutely no need for Dunn, either. 

I think the Furcal talk is fascinating,  What I've been hearing is the same perception I had of him - great leadoff man, but not durable.  But you go and check, and last year aside, he has been quite durable.  However, his OBP lifetime is only .352...which is better than Soriano, sure.  Who's isnt?  But it isn't quite up to the .360 benchmark many of us abide by when discussing leadoff men.  He did put up a .440 OBP in limited time last year, so maybe he's become more patient in his old age (28).  Of course, it's going to cost a lot of money to find out, and it doesn't sound like this is going to be a big money winter. 

Also, if you sign Furcal, then you certainly cannot also sign Dempster.  You have an significant upgrade in the leadoff spot, and a nice upgrade at shortstop, but you lose significant rotation depth.  Not to mention convincing Soriano that he needs to bat down in the order - which we all agree NEEDS to happen, but still.  It ain't gonna be easy.

Then, what do you do with Theriot?  It sounds easy enough to slot him into the utlility role with his LSU buddy Fontenot.  Truly, there is kind of a storybook quality to that arrangement.  But (here comes the human element part) it is getting to get to the point where FONTENOT is considering himself starter-quality in this league, let alone Theriot.  Neither of these guys are going to be happy to be utlility players for very long. 

Which leads me to my last topic for the day - Jake Peavy.  Colin states that he hears the price for Peavy starts with Marshall, Pie and Cedeno, plus prospects, and the quality of the prospects would determine the success of the deal.  And we all know the state of our 'prospects'.  As much as I hate saying this (because I love our Cajun boys and hate Cedeno) but what if you switch one of them in for Cedeno?  Would Theriot, Marshall and Pie and whatever else we could scrape up bring us back Peavy and the egregious contract that is Khalil Greene? 

Not that I like Greene, obviously, but being realistic here, this is the only way I can see the Padres trading Peavy to us.  That leaves us a gaping hole in the 8 spot, and look at the rotation: Peavy, Z, Lilly, Harden and probably Marquis.  Now, if my napkin math is correct, this plan of action depletes this year's budget, and you don't have Furcal, you don't have Theriot, you don't have Dempster, and you've made the Padres a much better team.  Me, myself, I would rather have Peavy than Dempster, but people who pay more attention to the team than I say that Dempster is the keeper, provided he puts out as much effort as he has the past twelve months.   

To conclude, here are the combinations of 1st Starter/Shortstop you can count on for next year:

• Zambrano/Furcal (with an unhappy Theriot and little rotation depth); or
• Dempster/Theriot; or
• Peavy/Greene

I don't think we should get Furcal.  I myself would look behind Door #3, because in my mind, Jake Peavy is one of a handful of Certifiable Staff Aces, and Dempster is not.  I will be happy to expand on this at a later date.  But I certainly understand if you choose Door #2.  I won't curse you for it.

That's settled, then.  What are we forgetting?

Oh YEAH???  A right-fielder.

Colin reported yesterday that Ryan Dempster will be testing the waters shortly, as he is looking for a 4 year deal or more while the Cubs are only going to offer him 3.

About a month back, when the season ended, I wrote the following: This is the biggest area of interest this off season.  I'm sure there are some people who think that Dempster will be an elite pitcher next season.  I'm not one of them.  However, I do think he'll have a good 2009, and maybe even a good '10 and '11.  If Jim Hendry can negotiate a reasonable deal with Dempster - say, 3 years for 30-36 million with an option for a 4th year - then I support his return.  But if Dempster demands 4 or 5 years for 14 million or more, the Cubs will need to wish him the best and let him go.

It looks now as though Dempster is asking for just that, while the Cubs appear interested in offering the kind of deal I speculated on.

Consequently, Jim Hendry will have a busy week or two.  He'll be trying to negotiate with Dempster while blowing up the phone lines of the San Diego Padres in order to land Peavy.  Peavy would be costly, but let's remember two things - 1) he's the same age as Carlos, and 2) He's locked up for 4 years for barely more money than what Jason Marquis is making.  If I'm the GM, Peavy is a must-have, as he is that rare ace pitcher with an affordable contract.

There is one other factor that will play out interestingly this off season for Dempster - most seasons, he'd be the top free agent pitcher on the market.  This year, he's one of a bunch.  While there is always a need for starting pitchers, there are also only so many dollars able to be spent and the market may be saturated to the point where the only guy to get what he "deserves" will be Sabathia.  But even if Dempster goes, and even if Peavy's price is too costly, the Cubs will have the ability to replace Dempster with somebody for less-or-equal money who actually may outproduce Clownsevelt next season.

Those options look to include the following:

Jon Garland - 29, 14-8, 4.90 ERA
Braden Looper - 34, 12-14, 4.16 ERA
Derek Lowe - 35, 14-11, 3.24 ERA
Oliver Perez - 27, 10-7, 4.22 ERA
CC Sabathia - 28, 17-10, 2.70 ERA
Ben Sheets - 30, 13-9, 3.09 ERA
AJ Burnett - possible free agent - 31, 18-10, 4.07 ERA

And there are other good pitchers who could file but haven't yet.  My current theory is also that one of the teams that loses out on some of the pitchers above might be willing to accept a trade for Jason Marquis rather than go home empty-handed.

Regardless, I'll end it by saying this - if Ryan Dempster can get 4 or 5 years elsewhere, then I believe the Cubs should wish him the best and send him on his way.  At his age, after a career year, and without knowing if he can pitch consistently for another half decade, anything more than 3 years would be too much.  There are other options out there, and the Cubs should pursue them.