One last word on Dempster ...

It actually appears to have turned out almost exactly the way I wanted it to.  Almost.

On the 21st of October, I proposed the following move: Step Two - Housekeeping: I offer the following deal to Ryan Dempster: 3 years for 36 million dollars, with a 4th year for 14 million that can be exercised mutually between team and player, or kicks in automatically if he averages 200 innings or more of work during seasons 1-3.

On the 18th of November, Dempster actually signed this contract, according to ESPN: He gets a $4 million signing bonus, $8 million next year, $12.5 million in 2010 and $13.5 million in 2011. Dempster has a 2012 option for $14 million.

In other words, I proposed a 3 year deal for 36 million plus a 14 million dollar option year, and Dempster signed a 3 year deal for 38 million, and a $14 million dollar option year. The only difference between my proposal and the real one is that Dempster's option year is player-controlled, while I wanted the Cubs to either push for a mutual or have it kick in automatically based on performance.

Don't get me wrong, everybody.  I've expressed a healthy amount of skepticism, but only because I think that Dempster; Year 4 is going to be equally ugly and brutal.  But I do think that he's going to mostly earn his pay, which is more than you can say about most pricey starting pitchers these days.

We'll talk about the 2012 ramifications later, but for now, I'm going to give a reluctant approval to this transaction.  After all, it's almost exactly what I was pushing for, right?

Now if only Hendry would follow Step 2-A of my plan: I also offer Kerry Wood a 2 year deal for 15 million, with mutual options for a 3rd year at 8 million which also has an option to kick in automatically based on meeting performance goals.

If only.

Kurt ain't gonna like this, because even 4x12 isn't gonna be enough.

It is 4 x 13, according to the SunTimes.

Which is, from the top of my head, a little less than what Jake Peavy stands to make through his contract.  But, Kurt and others are yelling right now, YOU (me) said Jake Peavy is an ACE, and Ryan Dempster is NOT.

Yep, I said that.  I meant it, too.  And I still do.  I most certainly think, even with Dempster back in the fold, that there is still room for Peavy.  I could certainly go to war next year with Peavy, Dempster, Zambrano (who has done his best work as a #3 starter), Lilly and Harden as the Best Fifth Starter In The History of Baseball.  Oh yeah, I would.

But that doesn't prove the point that Ryan Dempster is worth the fourth year.  It wouldn't make ANY difference if I told you that 4x13 was less than what I figured he was going to get.  I figured in the 2008-9 CC Sabathia Sweepstakes Season, that we would be lucky if Dempster came back to us for 4x14. 

I am willing to bet right now that once the exclusivity window expired, that Dempster and his agent were expecting just a groundswell of glad tidings and expressions of desire, and all they got was "we're waiting on Sabathia" and "we're broke" and "what did you say your name was?"  I'm thinking that this was a useful exercise for all parties.  Dempster probably saw that he wasn't going to find a more supportive front office than the one he has.  And the Cubs got to see that it isn't that easy to just go out and replace 17 wins, because they don't have the prospects to trade for a Peavy, and they won't spend the money to sign an A. J. Burnett, who is also not a staff ace, but will end up with more money than Dempster, based on the widespread belief that the AL is the superior league, and that Burnett's 18 wins mean more.  Which may or may not be true (future column idea for a Colin or a Kyle?  I don't want any part of it.  Like I say, I could give a rat's patoot less about the rest of MLB)

So, was this year a typical salary drive, or was this a genuine, sincere effort to finally meet the expectations that Ryan Dempster has had since the year he broke in with Florida?  Obviously, if this was a salary drive, then this was some SERIOUS wasted money.  One could, and someone will, end up playing the race card on this one.  Somehow dorky white guys from some backbacon village in BC don't conduct salary drives?  They spend the winters running up and down Saddleback Mountain for no other reason than self-actualization, to become all they can be?  And what if, say, Derrek Lee worked his ass off especially hard this off-season and posted a 35/115/.320 next year, it being his salary year at roughly the same age?  In fact, my recent bellyaches aside, Lee has had a more productive four year stretch than Dempster has had with us.  But mark my words, if Lee comes back strong next year, then holds his hand out, people are going to shout SALARY DRIVE!  And just because he's a cheery glass of milk, we're just supposed to TRUST Dempster to be able to post the same numbers the next four years?

Um, well.  Seems like I have hoisted myself on my own petard.  Except that the Cubs just signed someone who possesses #2 Starter talent, and who has put up #2 Starter results (at least in 2008), and is in the best shape of his life, for #2 Starter money.  And unlike an outside free agent, the Cubs have had the opportunity to employ this man for the past six years, and don't have to rely on scouting reports or the empty promises of an agent to know what kind of competitor he is. 

Between Ramirez, Lee, and to an extent Kerry Wood, the Cubs have had decent success in the past three years with re-signing their incumbent free-agent candidates.  (Jury's still out on Zambrano).  They know what they have, and they didn't skew any existing salary structures in the process.  In the wild weird world of Major League Baseball spending, the Cubs could have done a lot more risky things than sign Ryan Dempster to 4x13MM.

Rumors out of Chicago have the Cubs close to re-signing Ryan Dempster to a 4 year deal worth $50 million, or roughly $12 million per season.  This is about a year more than what I think Dempster deserves, and while it will be unpopular I'm prepared to make my case against him here.

First, let's look at the positives.  In his first season as a starter for the Cubs, Clownsevelt had a pretty kick ass season.  He went 17-6 with a 2.96 ERA before imploding in the playoffs.  For that reason, he's looking at a 7 to 10 million dollar per year pay raise, and I can understand why.

As a teammate, Dempster is well-liked and is well-known for keeping the boys loose.  On a team without a distinct leader-type, Dempster has to have some points accumulated toward his Leadership Factor Score.

In other words, Dempster was a reliable, good player in 2008.  Now, as to why I don't think he deserves it ...

At the age of 31, Dempster has played in 11 seasons in the majors.  In those 11 seasons, he's been a starter for 7 of them.  In those 7 turns as a starter, he's had exactly 2 seasons that were better than mediocre - 2000 and 2008.  His third best year was 2001 in which he went 15-12 with a 4.94 ERA and 112 walks in 211.1 innings pitched.

During the 2003 season, after having started the year with a 3-7 record and an ERA of 6.54, Dempster suffered damage to his elbow and required Tommy John Surgery.  According to Will Carroll, a guy who knows more than me about these sorts of things, TJS has an interesting side-effect - a pitcher's arm is pretty close to indestructible for the next 5 seasons.  After that, he's susceptible to re-injuring his arm.

While he's pitched well - but not spectacular - as a Cub before 2008, Dempster had to have been a tremendous surprise in the '08 season.  Then again, he was in a contract year.  But while I'm not predicting that he's likely to suffer arm problems next year - or ever again - I do think he's going to be hard-pressed to match his numbers from '08.

That isn't to say he won't be a bust in 2009.  My feelings are that he'll win more than 14 games but fewer than 17, and will have an ERA higher than 3 but lower than 4.  But while he very well may be a reliable pitcher next year, and even the year after that, considering how unlikely it is that he'll ever put up comparable numbers to this season - unless he's the right-handed Jamie Moyer, pitchers rarely enter a higher level of ability after they turn 30 - I just can't believe that he's worth the risk of a large, 4 year contract.

3 years plus an option I can get behind.  12 million a year per year I can accept. But let me also ask you this: considering how deep the free agency market is for starters this season, and especially considering how the economy is in the tank - which will certainly have an effect on the revenue of teams next season - isn't it possible that the Cubs would be able to sign a good starter even if they lost Dempster?

I realize it's a risky proposition, but I just have to think that Hendry and the Cubs could've found a replacement who will do as well and pay him less than what Dempster is bound to earn.

But then again, maybe I'm making much ado about a whole lot of nothing.  I suppose that 1 extra year on a contract shouldn't make or break bringing back Dempster, especially if he's agreable to something that pays 12 million or less.  I can certainly be accused of nit-picking in this case.  I just feel, I dunno, as if Hendry and the Cubs could've done better.

So, in conclusion, I'll simplify it by saying this:

• He might not stay healthy for 4 years
• He is unlikely to be as consistently good as he was in 2008
• There are other free agents available who are just as likely to do as well as Dempster but may be less expensive
• He's only had 2 good years ever, and it seems like an awful risk to throw 50 million at a guy with his track record

And that's all I have to say about that ... erm, for now.

The Case For Dempster, a rebuttal

I fully expect one of my fellow Goat Riders to strongly disagree with me.  I welcome one - or more - to post their thoughts in this article, here.  (I'm looking at you, Rob)

The Chicago Tribune is reporting today that Rick Sutcliffe is apparently trying to land a lobbyist gig for the Chicago Cubs.  He's been blowing up the phone of Padres ace Jake Peavy in order to convince him to accept any trade to the Chicago Cubs.

In some ways, Sutcliffe was Kerry Wood before Kerry Wood got his first pimple.  He was an amazingly talented pitcher who caught the imagination of Cub fans with a handful of dominating seasons who ultimately left Chicago after years of arm injuries.  And, as a kid, he was my favorite Cubs pitcher.

You know, the Cubs are interesting in that way.  Maybe it's not unique to them, but throughout my history of following the team, they have had a knack for acquiring colorful characters with a potent combination of talent and personality.  It's just unfortunate for the Cubs that they have rarely had enough of those guys at one time to win anything.

I've told this story before, although at this point it should probably be more legend than fact because I seriously doubt I'd be able to back it up with a source if anybody challenged me.  But when Sutcliffe retired from baseball in 1994 as a 38 year old man with a broken wing, he was asked about which team he'd enjoyed playing for the most in his career.  He answered by saying "I'm a Cub.  That's me."  I have a feeling that Wood will take the same approach whenever he retires, regardless of where he goes next.

As for Peavy, my spidey-sense tells me that he won't be traded to the Cubs any time soon.  However, while this has so far been the most disappointing off-season in recent memory, I still feel confident that the Cubs will do something to improve.  Jim Hendry, don't fail me now.