Goatriders of the Apocalypse

A friendly wager

Over the past 28 days - a number conveniently chosen because Baseball Reference lists it on the splits page - has hit, or really has not hit, .149/.233/.324. That's called "slugging Ryan Theriot's batting average," folks. Even Ryan Theriot does better than that.

This has officially freaked out a segment of the Cubs fanbase. People are also freaking out about Derrek Lee again - even though I asked them not to - because he's hitting .143/.143/.190 since the All-Star Break. (Incidently, Lee's overall seasonal line improved since I wrote that post.)

I'm going to, admittedly, go out on a slight limb here. This is a wager that is open to all other Cubs blogers, including the other Riders. (And if any, say, Brewers or Reds bloggers are interested in the bet, that'd be fine, too. Open to Cubs beat writers, too!)

I have Lee projected at .306/.382/.521 for the rest of the season, or a wOBA of .390. Similarly, Ramirez is projected to hit .288/.368/.523, wOBA of .384. (I'm using the Marcels, not the ZiPS, which in this case makes almost no difference at all.)

The bet, as it stands right now, is that over the next 30 days - so between tonight's game and the game against the Nationals on August 23rd - Aramis Ramirez will hit within one standard deviation of his projected wOBA or above. In order for the bet to to stand, Ramirez has to get at least 80 plate appearances. (Ramirez is on pace for 118 PAs over the next 30 games.) If Ramirez doesn't get 80 PAs during that time period, the bet shifts to Lee and his projected wOBA (within one standard deviation). wOBA is to be calculated using the weights published on Tango's website, and stats used to calculate wOBA for the time period will be from baseball-reference.com

The stakes are as follows - and are only in play if another blogger puts up a matching bet: if Ramirez (or, as a fallback, Lee) fails to do so, I will write a sonnet extolling the virtues of Ryan Theriot as a shortstop, baseball player and human being, to be published on Goat Riders of the Apocalypse no later than September 1st.

Please comment or e-mail me no later than the commencement of the Cubs-Marlins game tomorrow night if you want to be involved in this. Remember - there will be no Ryan Theriot sonnet if somebody doesn't match the bet.


I love your dedication to keeping us informed on stats and other things. But sometimes I just dont have a clue what you are talking about. Anyways, just wanted to say its great having a resident mathematician for all of us math inept Cubs fans.

Big D Lee and his mighty bat!

Those stats are great and I here what you're saying but I'm more worried about Rami...at least D Lee has a hit! But wait...

...this just in...

D Lee Homerun! HEY HEY!

Flip flop

Would it really hurt to flip flop Ramirez & Lee? At least temporarily? Since they're both flailing (and failing) at the plate, maybe it's worth a shot. Soto can bat 5th so Lee gets some quality pitches.


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