Goatriders of the Apocalypse

Back-Channel Relations: Viva El Birdos

Thank God, it's Friday. It's been a shitty week in several different ways, but at least the Cardinals are coming to town and I can spew invective at any unsuspecting passers by that happen to be wearing Red... unless it's the right kind of Red.

In honor of our special rivalry with the Red-Birds, the Goat Writing team worked together to come up with our greatest, most entertaining set of questions yet in the Back-Channel Relations series.

At the Bat: Larry Borowsky of Viva El Birdos. I checked Google translator to decipher the exotic foreign language they speak in St. Louis, and it means "Life is for the Birds." Apparently the 'when you're a Cardinals fan' is implied.

Q: Certainly your club has played remarkable ball so far this year with a pitching staff held together with shoelaces and spent chewing gum. Please give me a reason, other than the influence of The Genius and His Swollen Chess Club Brain? When you look at the rotation, do you get nervous? How will they hold up over the course of the season?

I'll cite a couple of other reasons. One is the schedule ---- the Cards had 2/3 of their April games at home, and most of them were against bad teams (Pirates, Giants, Nats, Astros, Reds). The other is what I'll call the "fresh start" factor. They've got a lot of guys in new roles who are very focused on making a good impression and keeping their jobs. Kyle Lohse has something to prove, and he's in a ballpark that plays to his strengths and masks his weaknesses; Todd Wellemeyer is throwing strikes for the first time in his career, and looks like a good power pitcher as a result. Can they keep it up? We'll find out in May, when they play a bunch of road games. Since moving into Busch III the Cards have always pitched well at home but poorly on the road. If they pitch well in their May road games, it'll be a very positive sign.

Q: I must confess that I do not follow the day-to-day operations of The Cardinals. How is the Pitcher batting eighth working for you? Please cite a specific example where it worked, when the normal order of things would not have? Simulations and regression testing aside, over the course of a season, the pitcher is going to appear 30 more times than a supposed position player. That just seems wrong.

I can't cite a specific example, but the supposition in the last sentence doesn't hold --- the pitcher is not going to get 30 extra at-bats. The pitcher is going to swing the bat once or twice a game, regardless of whether he bats 8th or 9th; the rest of the time he'll either be bunting or he'll be removed for a pinch-hitter. So it doesn't matter whether he bats 8th or 9th, he's still swinging the bat the same ### of times.

Q: Albert Pujols is off to an excellent start. When do you think his advanced age will finally catch up with him, and how do you think his numbers will look at the end of the season?

He's gonna set career highs for walks and OBP, that's for sure. All other signs point toward a typical Pujols season, ie .330 BA / .650 SLG. And it looks like he'll have an OBP closer to .500 than to .400.

Q: I'm curious as to whether or not Adam Kennedy has done anything to rehabilitate his image with Cardinals fans since his disappointing showing last season and his antics at FanFest. Also, if you'd like to speculate on the contents of the incriminating photos that Aaron Miles possesses of Tony LaRussa, that would be excellent.

I shudder to think of what Miles' photographs must show; without question it is quite a sizeable stash. Kennedy actually has looked good in the field, so even the SABR-inclined fans are happy with him on that score. He's had a decent OBP fueled by a high batting average, but when his average drops toward .270 (as seems inevitable) then he's not going to be worth much offensively, because he has absolutely no sock in his stick. Even Eckstein supplied more power. The middle infielders as a group are really dragging the offense down; if their 2B and SS could merely hit at 80 percent of league average, the team would be scoring at a very healthy clip.

Q: Walt Jocketty's out, John Mozeliak is in. Why was Jocketty fired (I always thought he was one of the best GMs in baseball)? Is John Mozeliak any good? (What's he done of note, so far?) And why didn't Tony LaRussa follow Jocketty out the door?

This is a very complicated question. Here's the short answer: Jocketty's success was largely built on signing star players to big-dollar contracts. He didn't sign them as FAs; he'd trade for them in their walk year and then sign them to extensions. But it was still a strategy that relied heavily on rising payroll. The ownership has decided it wants to shift to a player-development model (a la the Indians, Dbacks, Rockies), and Jocketty rebelled against that and actively tried to undermine it ---- so he got canned. Too soon to judge Mozeliak; he did well to get rid of two bad contracts (Edmonds, Rolen), and he has created some opportunities for younger players. As for La Russa, the St. Louis owner wanted him back, and it doesn't appear as if he had any options elsewhere; the Dodgers didn't want him, and he didn't want to manage in New York (Yankees). St. Louis may have been his only viable option.

In actual seriousness, thanks to Larry for taking time out of a busy schedule to keep the Goat Riding nation informed about the 'Evil Empire.'

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