I'm very frustrated with the Cubs and Kerry Wood today so, like a disappointed parent, I'm going to stay silent rather than blow up and start ranting. But let me just say, you guys ruined my day yesterday and I hope you're happy about it. But whatever, what did I ever do for you? Buy tickets? Concessions? Follow your every step?

But no, you don't own me anything. Let's just pretend it never happened and move on. It's fine.

  • Over on Deadspin, they have an outstanding series called "The Dark Side of the Locker Room" where various sports writers share stories based on the fact that sports personalities are the same people they were back in high school. Remember when you hated them back then? Yeah. Yesterday the series turned to the Seattle Mariners and Lou Piniella...and Lou Piniella's Balls. Sure, you're a sports reporter. You expect to see a naked Jay Buhner. You don't expect to see Lou's Balls.
    All hyperbole aside, Lou Piniella is the most terrifying man ever in history ever. And he really needs to buy some new underwear.

  • Exactly one post below this one is a post from Colin Wyers, someone who seems to really understand stats. This makes me happy. But Colin makes a comment in his article that is a point I've been trying to make regarding Ryan Theriot and The Scrappy Bunch (I haven't tried to make this point on the site, just to friends and family.  And by friends and family, I mean pets.  And by pets, I mean doll collection).
    Here's the kicker, folks - even a full baseball season is really a small sample size.

    Exactly! This is why I feel people should wait until Theriot or Johnson or whoever start to suck before bashing them, because Theriot actually could continue to hit over .300 for the whole season. The hits could just keep falling in. All. Season. Statistical anomalies happen, that's why they put the tails on the bell curve. Sure, when Theriot starts sucking again he's open season. But what if he doesn't? Will we keep talking about how bad he is and cite last year as proof? (What's funny about this is that I think this is the exact opposite argument that Colin's trying to make. I'm pretty sure he's saying that Soriano's not as bad as this small sample size and, ergo, Theriot isn't really as good as his hot start. But I'm taking the blind optimist approach: Theriot might keep being good but Soriano will get better. Blind optimism! Get on board! Instant happiness and cheaper than drugs!)*

  • This week's Sign of the Apocalypse: Goat gives birth to Quituplets.
    Ralph Burge had to count three times to make sure what he saw was real. His reliable nanny goat, Honeybear, had given birth to five baby goats, or kids.Burge and his wife, Helen, have yet to decide on names for the five kids. For now, they're calling them A, B, C, D and E.

    And no, the sign of the Apocalypse isn't that this goat squirted out 5 kids. It's that there exists a place where this makes it's way into the papers.

But now back to the disappointing Cubs...

(* somewhere back there Colin's head must have exploded)

Cubs at St. Louis

The Matchups

May 2nd, 7:15 PM CT

Rich Hill vs Adam Wainwright - And here we have two ends of the spectrum. Rich Hill is coming off a month or two of rest and Wainwright got Dusty'd his last time out, throwing 126 pitches in his start. This is the magic of LaRussa and Duncan; abuse the hell out of a veteran, win, repeat. It's worked for years and it has the Cardinals in first. Stupid LaRussa.

May 3rd, 2:45 PM CT

Ted Lilly vs. Kyle Lohse - As predicted by Jason, Lilly's season has finally started turning around and he's - well, he's not winning, but he's getting better. Kyle Lohse, on the other hand, must have been lucky so far. He's not striking out many and his control hasn't been *that* good and yet he has a 2.36 ERA. I'm not sure where to find BABIP, but I'd imagine it's kind of low. I'm not going to predict that his luck will run out against the Cubs...but I hope it does.**

(** this blindingly obvious statement brought to you by Goat Riders. Goat Riders, official sponsor of the coming Apolcalypse)

May 4th, 6:05 PM CT

Jason Marquis vs. Tod Wellemeyer - I'd really prefer that Marquis stops pitching for the Cubs, but that's probably not going to happen. Regarding Wellemeyer, I haven't seen him pitch since he started starting with the Cardinals, but I'd imagine he still throws almost all fastballs. That's not a bad plan as he has a nice fastball. I've always like Wellemeyer so it's nice to see him do well, but it'd be even nicer to see him get rocked by the Cubs.

Go Cubs.

Kyle Lohse's BABIP

Actually, if my calculations are correct, he's got a .275 BABIP this season, and a .310 historical BABIP, so not that far off. The weird thing is he hasn't given up a single home run this season -- vs. the Cubs that should change.

No need to calculate...

...when someone else is willing to do it for you. (Just remember - for any pitcher, ANY pitcher in baseball, true talent BABIP is .290. The level of data we need to say otherwise doesn't exist for guys Lohse's age.)

But you're right - once his HR/FB rate stabilizes at something other than 0% (should be at about 11%), his performance should start to fall in line with expectations.

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