So, I've got this noose around my neck. Should I kick out the chair? Because really, if one more of the golden trifecta goes down, I'm not sure what reason I have to carry on. So what is it? Is Zambrano following the path of Prior and Wood into the fiery pits of surgical hell? Surely not the Big Moose, right?

Right?

Alright, let's see what reasons we have to worry. There is a large body of evidence that points to the fact that Carlos is probably hiding an injury. Well, I suppose it would only be "hiding" the injury if we assume Carlos feels pain, a fact of which I'm not convinced. Anyway, let's look at the tape.

There is one indisputable fact in last night's game: Carlos was consistently only hitting 88 on the radar gun. Granted, his fastball had great movement on it, but it always has great movement. It just usually has a little faster movement, by around 8 miles per hour. As we've all learned from years of dealing with injured pitchers, a loss of velocity is generally a sign of a shoulder injury. Will Carroll goes into it in a bit more detail in this Slate article, but the idea is pretty simple. A sudden loss of velocity is a bad sign.

That's one piece of evidence supporting the argument that he might have a shoulder injury.

But what could cause a shoulder injury? Well, they've already forced him to cut back on internet usage, so it can't be that. And he hasn't been seen on WWE Raw recently, so maybe it's...pitching? Could be. Let's take a look at pitcher abuse over the last few years, using Baseball Prospectus's Pitcher Abuse Points.

Starting in 2003, Carlos has been in the top 11 in PAP every year. It breaks down as:

• 2003 - Ranked #11
• 2004 - Ranked #3
• 2005 - Ranked #2
• 2006 - Ranked #2
• 2007 - Ranked #9

Does this mean anything? Maybe, maybe not. There are several pitchers atop the leaderboard in this stat who haven't experienced any injuries. The obvious example is Livan Hernandez who can seemingly throw forever and never get injured. Wait, that's what they say about Carlos, right? Score one for Big Z.

Who else is on this leader board? You've got a familiar name in Mark Prior, who was #3 and #4 in 2003 and 2004 respectively. And that only counts throwing a baseball. Add in towels and he's been worked like a rented mule. Jason Schmidt, Victor Zambrano, Russ Ortiz and Ben Sheet were all in the top ten in 2004 and all have experienced arm injuries. However, in 2005, Mark Prior and Jason Schmidt are the only members of the top 10 to go down. None of this is terribly conclusive, I'll admit.

But I'll tell you what is certain. When Carlos started throwing all those pitches, he was all of 22. When Prior started throwing all his pitches, he was...22. Maybe the problem isn't just the ridiculous number of pitches, but so many pitches at a young age. I know I'm not the first person to speculate this and I won't be the last.

The final piece of evidence is very telling. In an excellent Hardball Times article, which everyone should read, Carlos Gomez performs the same analysis on Carlos that he previously did with Prior. In this analysis, he looks at Carlos's arm angle and shows a definite change in arm angle. In 2007, his arm is only making a 27 degree angle with respect to the ground as opposed to 38 degrees in 2005. Be sure to click on the article to see the images. Is he doing this because he's hiding an injury (a common reason to lower the arm arngle) or is he doing this because he's simply in a mechanical rut? It's hard to say, but this lowered arm angle is almost certainly the source of the lower velocity. It also goes a long way towards explaining the control issues as he's "pushing" the ball rather than throwing freely.

So what's the source of the lowered arm angle? Well, whatever the source, it's a big red flag and something the Cubs should make sure they really, really understand before they go and sign Carlos to a long term contract.

There is one bit of evidence in Carlos's favor in that, in the 5th inning when he started to dominate again, his velocity was back up. He was throwing, albeit only for a couple of innings, in the mid nineties with a high of 96 mph. So the ability to throw hard is there, he's just not doing it. That velocity dropped back down to 88 in the 7th when he was shelled by the Sox.

So what is it? Did he briefly correct his mechanics before growing fatigued once again or did he just suck it up for a couple of innings and throw through the pain? What's the story?

It's impossible to say at this point as only Carlos knows the answer. What is clear, however, is that Cubs fans should be very scared. We are *this close* to going from three phenoms to zero.

Final Rant

What bothers me most about this is the attitude that brought this about. Dusty Baker, managerial genius, ran Wood, Prior, and Zambrano into the ground during his tenure. Why did he do this? Because they were "horses." Not literal horses, mind you. Horses don't have opposable thumbs and thus can't throw a baseball. Nope, they were figurative horses. Either way, his claim was that "look at all the pitches they are throwing without getting injured! They must be able to handle throwing lots of pitches!" Great thought, although the only problem with this brand of thinking is that, a pitcher is always not injured until he gets injured. The only way to truly tell if a player is "a horse" is to run him as hard as possible until he either becomes a veteran (good) or breaks down (bad). Sadly, the number of pitchers who can make it to veteran under this type of stress test are fairly rare.

And none of them played for the Cubs.

So, all we as Cub fans can do is sit back and hope that this is a mechanical issue. If there is damage, the damage is done and there's no going back.

I have a feeling we're going to be relieved that we missed out on signing Carlos to a long term deal. And that makes me sad.