The Cubs are super-cold right now...
Friday Morning Odds And Ends, Being On Fire Edition
Paul Sullivan is either the best-sourced or the most speculative beat writer: he suggests the Cubs are giving serious thought to sending Pie down to AAA to work on his swing. He would (potentially) be replaced by...
...drumroll...
Andres Torres!
The sound you hear is me self-immolating.
Torres hasn't played in the majors since 2005 - his career batting line of .210/.258/.276 I think explains that pretty well. He's 30 years old and might well be the only player on the Cubs' AAA affiliate who could hit right-handed pitching worse than Reed Johnson. (I'm serious - his career splits against left-handed pitching are amazing. I refuse to reprint them.) His CHONE projection is a wonderful .238/.300/.360. Yay .660 OPS!
The best part:
A call-up of Torres could give Pie time to cut down on his strikeouts in the minors, while giving Piniella the option to sit Reed Johnson against selected righties.
Ignoring the platoon splits for a minute... selected righties? You mean all of them?
At least he was a very good defensive center fielder. In 2003. Is he anymore? It's possible, I guess.
If you were wondering, by the way, self-immolation is the act of setting oneself on fire. I'll let you know in the morning if I was kidding about it. Or I won't, because it's hard to type while you're on fire.
(The rebuttal is that Torres is currently hitting .356/.441/.525 down at AAA. My counterarguement is that I don't really care - the guy shows every indication of sharing Johnson's platoon split, and until the league becomes predominantly left-handed neither of them are useful as everyday starters in center field. Are Sam Fuld and Eric Patterson both dead? Because that's the only way this gets within spitting distance of acceptability. Oh, wow. Can we take a look at Mike Fontenot in center field before we try this out? I'm dead serious.)
There's a lot of news on the business front for the Cubs this week. I'm still trying to internalize all of it myself, so I don't have a lot to say. Maury Brown breaks down the opening of the financial books and handicaps the potential owners. The Trib is still trying to offload the ballpark to the state in a separate deal.
Wittenmyer writes a surprisingly sober piece about the Roberts deal that never was.
Bruce Miles wonders about a certain line of thinking:
A lot of my regular readers and some on my favorite blogs and message boards keep waiting for shortstop Ryan Theriot to falter so Ronny Cedeno can take over. I've never understood this negative kind of thinking. Theriot is batting .331 with an OBP of .406. He deserves the benefit of the doubt until he shows he can't do it anymore. Go ahead and laugh about Theriot's alleged "grit," but he worked hard in the off-season to get himself into shape and to make adjustments with his swing. There's nothing wrong with a little grit as long as it's producing results.
I can't speak for everyone, but I can speak for myself, at least.
Cedeno and DeRosa have - in my estimation - a higher true talent level than Theriot. That means I think that it is most likely that a Cedeno-DeRosa middle infield would be the most productive going forward. There is a finite amount of playing time to be apportioned over the season - if Cedeno and DeRosa are more likely to contribute to winning than Theriot, by the time there's a significant change it will have already cost the team.
My biggest worry is that Theriot’s defensive liabilities – his mediocre range and his bad arm – are being overexposed out at shortstop, and putting in Cedeno solidifies our infield defense. (I looked at Theriot's defense using Revised Zone Rating a few days ago. It's a topic I hope to revisit soon.) Then the question becomes WHICH established veteran do you bench, because DeRosa and Theriot can’t both play second base – at least not at the same time. Despite season to date performance, my money is on Mark DeRosa going forward.
(And the difference in performance between DeRosa and Theriot to-date is overstated if you simply look at AVG and OBP. If you're going to use two rate stats to evaluate a player, they need to be OBP and SLG - batting average is simply the least useful of them all.)
But let me go ahead and clarify something: I don't root for Ryan Theriot to fail. I just expect that he will, based upon his past performance. I don't question his desire to substantially improve himself after last season; I'm just highly skeptical that a player can do so at the age of 28 in spite of his track record. And I'm more than a little frustrated being the fan of a team that thinks it's a good idea to gamble on the idea in a season when they plan on being in serious contention.
Some people - and people like Al Yellon and Bruce Miles, that I respect quite a bit - have argued for gambling on it a bit longer. I'd rather collect my winnings while I'm ahead.
(And bet on Ronny Cedeno? I know, I know. And I'm not entirely sold on Cedeno's offensive performance so far, either. I just think that Theriot is overexposed defensively at shortstop.)
Getting back in the game
Well I’m finally off the blogging DL. After taking 5 exams in 7 days and selling all my textbooks for “food” money, my finals hell week is over and I’m back in the game. Suck on that Thomas Hobbes and John Locke (No, I’m not a philosophy major but these two ass-jackets caused me more problems than necessary).
So what happened while I was gone?
Hmmm let’s see…Soriano still couldn’t hit a beach ball with a surf board…Rich Hill is in Iowa…Lieber got rocked…oh dear God. What has been going around here?!?!
Wait, what’s that? It gets even better? The Cubs now take their slumpy-ish play back home to face-off against the D-Backs, baseball’s best team. $#&*&$^*#()@_#)(&)$&!!!
My last memory of the D-Backs is a little blurry but I seem to remember me sitting in a bar with my “friends” (Again, I use that term loosely because they are Cardinals fans) and me getting made fun of by a tall, skinny blonde girl for wearing an Aramis Ramirez jersey as I watched the Cubs get swept out of the playoffs. Yeah, it went something like that.
While I’m sure there will be a series preview coming up soon, I’d just like to get my duo copper Lincoln’s in and say that this might be the most important series for the Cubs all regular season. Yes, I know the season is only 34 games old and there is A TON of baseball still to be played, but this weekend is going to tell us a lot.
Obviously the Cubs have been in a bit of a rut lately, and I think we are about to see what this team has got physically and mentally.
Granted the Cubs will not see Brandon Webb this weekend, but the Diamondbacks are the best team in the majors (23-12) and there is no doubt in my mind that this is a team the Cubs must beat to get to the World Series whether it is now, July, or October. They need to prove it to themselves and the fans that they can play with the best in baseball.
This is also a great chance to build some momentum with Lilly, Dempster, and Zambrano all scheduled to pitch. These are the rotation’s top three guys and they’ll have a chance to prove they can pitch in the clutch. If there was ever a time when this team needed some strong pitching performances to gain confidence, then it’s going to be this weekend.
Of course the larger theme here is getting out of their funk. The Cubs have been awful lately and it doesn’t matter if they are playing the Diamondbacks or the Pirates, they need to turn it around and win a series.
I have some high hopes for this weekend. No tests, no projects, no dead philosophers. Just some exciting playoff-like baseball…and that whole graduation thing.
I am playing hooky tomorrow
And I am going to spend my senior skip day at the Friendly Confines.
This makes no sense, of course, since the Cubs just got done getting blasted to Kingdom Come by Dusty's Reds. Strangely enough, though, yesterday's loss doesn't bother me that much.
First of all, the Cardinals and Brewers both lost too, although the Asstrolls are above .500, how, I don't know. Next, they always lose games the first time they face pitchers, so that isn't much of a departure. Then, I didn't expect Lieber to have much to offer, since he's been jacked around in the bullpen so far this year. Maybe he really is best suited for long relief at this point. I think we need to give him another start, since we really don't have too many other outstanding options currently.
I just feel that I have been away long enough. I am getting to the point that I no longer watch games or even seek out highlights or scores. I need to keep it real...to get back to my roots...to get back in touch with my Cubness. And nothing else does it quite like a trip to the shrine.
I have said many times that Wrigley Field has served as a leafy smokescreen for the many Cubs deficiencies. I have said that I would not honestly give a rip if they tore it down and replaced it with a baseball mall, and if they decided to play all their home games in Little League Diamond #6 at Troy Baseball Complex in Joliet, as long as they won a pennant it would be ok with me.
But for a man, and for many women too, but mostly for a man, there are very few feelings that compare with the initial climb up any one of the ramps at Wrigley, when you can look out and around and just get utterly overwhelmed with the vast sea of green. Ivy, grass and seats, soothing, natural, cool, calming green. It must be inherently coded into our DNA from caveman times, when you see green, it is spring, it is time to hunt, time to gather food, time to couple off and mate with Camilla Belle on top of her furs.
Like Darth Vader said in "Field of Dreams", it's like bathing in magic waters, and right now, I need some magic water. Even if it is 7.50 a cup.
Thursday Morning Odds and Ends, Who's Playing Where? Edition
Sooooo... what's worse than four walks in an inning?
John Lieber did not exactly cover himself in glory in his first start after taking Rich Hill's spot in the rotation. Of course, neither did long-relief options Sean Marshall or Sean Gallagher. This doesn't exactly leave Lou with a lot of options.
Will Lieber remain in the rotation, or will Piniella go to Plan C, whatever that is?
"We'll sit on it," Piniella said. "We don't need to make a decision right now. But we'll think about it and see what we do."
About the only way Hill comes back any time soon is if someone goes on the DL - the earliest Hill can come back, so far as I can tell, is the nineteenth.
So who's going to start Tuesday? Lieber could be given another go-round. Either of the Seans could get the start, although Wittenmyer thinks that Marshall couldn't be stretched out in time.
What the Cubs won't do is carry 13 pitchers. So one of the Seans may not even be on the roster by the time Tuesday rolls around, as Eyre is supposed to join the club on Saturday.
And GM Jim Hendry says that Lou can - and perhaps will - "mix and match" with the pieces available with him, to try and get the team past their current slump. In spite of the ideas of a certain segment of Cubs fans, do not expect to see a lot of changes at the corners - Soriano will not be benched. Lou's big emphasis is on defense, so expect to see Blanco get more playing time at catc...
KIDDING!
Just kidding, folks. Please don't kill me.
In center, expect to see increased competition in the tallest midget contest Reed Johnson and Felix Pie are currently engaging in. Johnson's stock continues to fall - his incredible .257/.336/.297 (and no, I did not screw that up - he is slugging, if you can use that word, .297) batting line is probably not going to cut it over a full season. That said, it is better than Pie's .217/.284/.283; I'd mention that at least Pie's numbers are trending upward but it kicks off the uncomfortable conversation about where they were before.
However, if you were to take their splits and combine them - using Pie against right handed pitching, and Johnson against left handed pitching - you'd have a bizarre Frankenstinian player hitting .259/.365/.321, which still isn't that good but is better than either of them alone. I call this idea the "platoon." Lou is free to borrow it without crediting me, however.
The stickier situation is the middle infield, where an interesting sort of battle is developing. Ronny Cedeno is the only natural defensive shortstop of the bunch, and has been the best hitter in the early going. So of course Ronny has played twice as many games at second base as he has shortstop, and has largely come in off the bench. (I am contractually obligated to point out, however, that in his first full season of play he hit .245/.271/.339 and made 23 errors. I am not arguing that his abysmal 2006 performance has any predictive value above and beyond how we would weight it for any other player, I just don't want any trouble with the union.)
The other three are an interesting case study. Mark DeRosa has seemingly gone from "team MVP" for a large segment of the fanbase, to being an utter goat. That said, he's basically an average second baseman, and Cedeno-DeRosa is probably the team's best double play combination.
Since the injury bug bit the team, Theriot-Fontenot has probably been the most common double play combination. It's an open question as to whether either of them belongs in the majors, frankly. I won't rehash this argument again, though.
There are worrying hints that Cedeno is finally going to get some hard-won playing time - and let's face it, if Lou wasn't going to start playing Cedeno now, he was never going to start playing Cedeno, because it'd be impossible for him to play better than he has so far this season - but at the expense of DeRosa, not Theriot or Fontenot. Worse, Lou could go with Theriot at short and leave Cedeno at the keystone in an embarrassing display of not understanding defensive ability.
One final note - the Iowa Cubs have activated second baseman Eric Patterson and first baseman Micah Hoffpaiur from the disabled list. The odds that Eric Patterson will replace Mike Fontenot anytime soon: lower than they should be. The odds that I will tear my hair out over people suggesting that Hoffpaiur get called up before the summer is over: high. Hoffpauir hit .319/.365/.552 last year at AAA, which looks gaudy until you realize that it's AAA and that batting average is the first thing to drop when you hit the majors. His Major League Equivelency was .270/.313/.450, which is really rather bad for a first baseman.
Game Recap: Reds 9, Cubs 0
Man, this one hurts. This was supposed to be the triumphant return of the prodigal starter back to the rotation. He was supposed to be the Liebs of old. Instead, he did his best tin can impression. In the process, the Cubs served up a plethora of homeruns - Dusty's favorite way of winning - including two to a couple of jabrones, Bako and Hairston. Oh, the pain. The sweet, horrible pain.
Point of fact, Cincy scored only on the longball today, and all but two of their homeruns were solo shots. Meanwhile, Joey Votto looked like freakin' Mickey Mantle out there, slugging out three servings over the course of the game. Three. Thrice. Threeway on the freeway.
Not only did Jon Lieber look clown-like out there, but the two candidates to replace him in the rotation followed up his performance with crappy outings of their own. Sean Marshall and Sean Gallagher combined to pitch four innings and they also gave up four runs scored. This outing couldn't have been uglier if it was Tori Spelling.
Do the Cubs play tomorrow? Does anybody care to watch them lose again? How close is Lou Piniella to blowing his top? (Hmm. I need to make a photoshop for this.)
Series Recap: Screw it, I'm pissed. I'll do this later.
Tune in today
Just a quick update - Goat Friend Jon Miller will have me on the phones again today sometime between 2 and 2:30 central. Based on the EMails we've been exchanging, I have a feeling that, for the benefit of our sanity, we're going to pretend today's game doesn't exist.
It'll be on KXNO 1460, streamed live and online for your listening pleasure. Enjoy.
The Jon Lieber burial thread
Ladies and gentlemen, please meet your newest starting pitcher for the 2008 Chicago Cubs ... Sean Gallagher!
I can understand some of the beating that Lieber has taken. Votto and Dunn are talented hitters. But Gabor Bako and Jerry Hairston Jr.? Are you kidding me?
Pick your favorite cliche. Lieber got beaten like a drum. He got lit up like a Christmas tree. He got roughed up like a hooker who came up short with her pimp. He got ... well ... that last one wasn't really a cliche. I'll leave it at that.
Maybe Lieber is best suited for the bullpen. Maybe he's been pitching with smoke and mirrors all season long, and his sucktitude has just now has been exposed. Maybe the Cubs are in a bit more trouble than some of us have acknowledged ...
Maybe the Cubs really should have gone out and gotten a stronger #2 guy in the off season. This game is just ugly. So, so ugly.
Game Recap: Cubs 3, Reds 0; Zambrano=Ace
The Cubs are still looking unattractive right now, if not all-out ugly. Last night's squad continued the recent tradition of defensive miscues - even Derrek Lee has five errors right now. D.Lee. Five errors. He's also really calmed down offensively, as he is batting .182 after five games in May.
Last night's offensive heroes - if you can call anybody on the team an "offensive hero" right now - were the rejuvenated Aramis Ramirez, who knocked in a run, and Ronny "Plays like A-Rod" Cedeno, who had another big hit with runners in scoring position. I dunno, I'm feeling mixed about Ronny Ce. While I'm happy that he's playing like a local legend, I'm a little concerned that he is the team's clutch hitter. If that continues, it'll end like a Shakespearean tragedy. Actually, I think that succinctly describes the history of the Cubs organization in a nutshell.
The real story was the continued dominance of Carlos Zambrano. He's not the early standout this season in all of baseball, but he is off to his best start ever. An ERA below 2 while pitching on pace to win 20 is right where an ace should be.
Lastly, Kerry Wood came in and got exactly what he needed - an easy save. He seems far more comfortable when there's room for error, and he pitched a solid inning in which he struck out two batters. He needs to keep it up.
Today is the rubber game. The Cubs play for the opportunity to be only 1.5 games behind St. Louis. Thankfully, they play a team run by a skipper whose brain is far smaller than that of their own manager.
Wednesday Morning Odds and Ends, Pitching And Defense Edition
Rich Hill pitched tonight for the Iowa Cubs, allowing two runs in five innings. The more important news: five strikeouts and only one walk. Hope to see you soon, Rich. (Presuming I'm doing the math right, the earliest Hill can be called up is the nineteenth.)
Lou Piniella, on the other hand, is more concerned about his defense:
"You know what, we might have to make some changes," the manager said before Tuesday night's 3-0 victory over Cincinnati. "I hope not. I really hope we can stay just the way we are, that we're going through a little bit of a rough spell and we can work our way through it.
"But I've given some thought about doing some things. There's no rush, but there's some food for thought."
What concerns Piniella the most is the Cubs' fielding. They committed two big errors Monday night that contributed to five unearned runs in a 5-3 loss to the Reds. Both of the guilty parties, Mark DeRosa and Mike Fontenot, were out of the lineup Tuesday.
"That's an area that definitely needs improvement, and it's my job to put people out there who can catch the ball," Piniella said. "I can't do it in every position, but I'm going to do it in as many positions as I can."
The only positions where he can really do it are center field and second base. Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno were given opportunities Tuesday, and may get more in the near future.
I would argue that Paul Sullivan (and Gordon Wittenmyer, for that matter) are wrong about the fact that center and second are the only positions where Lou could tinker with his defense. Theriot has been a subpar defensive shortstop at best so far this season. (At some point I'll try to get together an explanation on how to read the RZR and OOZ numbers - when reading RZR you have to factor in the OOZ plays yourself, which is annoying. The average shortstop in 2008 makes .842 in zone plays and .140 out of zone plays for every ball in zone, compared to .815 in-zone and .107 out of zone plays for every ball in-zone for Theriot.) Sullivan for his part says:
Look at the numbers. Theriot is hitting well and getting on base. Cedeno is hitting well and getting on base. Yes, Cedeno has more range and a better arm than Theriot, but Theriot has done nothing yet to lose the starting job at short.
Yes, if you completely ignore any numbers that have to do with hitting for extra bases, fielding or running the bases, Theriot has done nothing to lose the starting job at short.
One player who could benefit immensely from Piniella's newfound enthusiasm for defense is Felix Pie, whose defensive value isn't limited to making web gems. But oh does he make web gems. As for Ronny Cedeno:
Lou Piniella was asked if Cedeno would get more playing time.
"Let's see," Piniella said. "He's going to tell me how much he wants to play."
I really don't know if it's possible for Cedeno to shout any louder.
Eyre's return is being pushed back to the weekend series. Who will be going to Iowa in exchange? (Please say Fontenot. Please say Fontenot.)

