When Mike Fontenot chose not to hit last year, Jim Hendry went out and got a Colorado Rockie cast off that wasn't playing any more. Jeff Baker came over to the Cubs and played pretty well, but it was a case of too little, too late when  it came to the Cubs playoff hopes.

Baker hit .305 with the Cubs with an .810 OPS in 203 at bats. Not bad out of the second base spot, but is he likely to repeat that this year? Ehh....I doubt it. For the spring stats, it looks like Mike Fontenot will get the starting nod, with Baker getting some AB's against lefties. Baker doesn't have a great split difference, so he is serviceable against LH and RH pitchers.

My hope is that Baker takes the utility role on the infield and gets a couple starts a week. That would be good for Aramis Ramirez and Fontenot. Baker rates fine with defense at 3B and 2B. His UZR at 2B is 10.6 and at 3B is 7.7, so he shouldn't hurt the Cubs in the field.

If Fontenot struggles, I imagine that Baker will get the first shot, but he fails the Cubs should look at Starlin Castro and Theriot as middle infielders.

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If the Season Preview article is meant to highlight each player's likely contribution to the team's 2010 performance, then Koyie Hill's article ought to be pretty short.

If it were another '09 recap, there'd be a lot more to say. Hill appeared in a whopping 83 games last season, collecting 253 at-bats in the process. He was pretty ungood on offense, posting a .237/.312/.324, but at least he tried.

But let's talk about 2010. This year, if Soto's apparently super-healthy appearance is worth anything, Hill won't get near as many at-bats. In 2009, Soto and Hill combined for something like 650 plate appearances. And in 2008, a healthy Soto took about 550 for himself. So Koyie might get 100-200 PAs in 2010, which is really too few to cause a huge ruckus.

At any rate, he's good defensively, so that's nice. Pretty much your perfect backup catcher, for what it's worth.

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A long time ago, Jim Hendry would pull off obvious one-sided trades to fill the Cubs needs. they were usually a thing of genious. Are we sure Jim wasn't invaded by a body snatcher one night? This was the man that brought us Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee for Bobby Hill, Hee Sop Choi and a set steak knives in the span of a few months.

That brings us to today's subject of player previews: Derrek Lee. Lee has been a success for the Cubs. He's had a huge years and played solid defense, even though that has slipped in the past few seasons. Many people were calling for Micah Hoffpauir last season, only to see Lee rebound to form and bet 35 HR's and quite all the critics about Lee being too old.

The only bad thing is that the Cubs wasted his two best years of 2005 and 2009 by not making the playoffs. In those two seasons, Lee hit 81 home runs in total. It's tragic that Lee has been unable to see the postseason in either of those two seasons.

What can we expect this year? My guess is that Lee will be provide an OPS of around .900, which would be a little more than his career average, but down from last year's .972. Of course, Lee is in a contract year, which could mean big things. Then again, he is about to turn 35 this year, so his best baseball should be behind him. The one thing I don't want the the Cubs to do is sign him to a long-term extension. I would be ok with one year, but beyond that the Cubs will likely kill any flexibility in the future.

Kurt
Ah, D-Lee.  He who evoked the phrase coinage of MVLee.  The defacto Clubhouse Leader.  The best first baseman we've seen in Chicago since the days when Ernie Banks would lumber around out there. 

This very well could be his swan song.

Milton Bradley was right about one thing -- Cub fans are fickle.  Just ask Lee: in 2005, we loved him and his ridiculous statistics with an indescribable passion.  Fast forward to 2008, and suddenly there were fans decrying Lee, fantasizing about trading him, calling him broke down and washed up because he grounded into more double plays than homeruns hit.  They wanted the Cubs to deal him to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez (the equivalent thought would be for me to complain loudly about how my three-year-old Corolla has a break problem, only to take it into the dealership and try to trade it straight up for a '10 Mustang). 

Or even less believable, they wanted to unload Lee and his big contract because they believed that Micah Hoffpauir -- a then 28-year-old journeyman minor league first baseman who needed 3 solid tries to figure out Triple A pitching -- would somehow be better than Lee. 

But these Cub fans did not taunt Lee with racist remarks, they simply booed the holy hell out of him every time he grounded into a double play. 

Anyway, Lee proved in 2009 what we knew all along.  Double plays are flukish and not symptoms of an ongoing offensive malady.  As Yarbage mentioned, he put on a clinic in 2009.  Now in the final year of his contract, we can probably expect to see similar production in 2010 from the guy who, in 7 fewer seasons, has already hit more homeruns than Mark Grace, the "greatest Cubs first baseman" of my lifetime.

It seems unlikely that Lee will be back for more in 2011, but if this truly is his swan song, here's to hoping that it's a glorious one. 

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That's the thing about professional sports - you smoke one joint, and they call you a "potsmoker" forever...

Ah, but let's be serious here for a moment.  I wore Geo Soto's ass out big time last year.  I could link to all of the posts I wrote, along with all the posts from some of the other blogs, suggesting I hang myself, and bathe with a plugged-in toaster, because I DARED to speak the truth about the 2009 season.  Hell, I even managed (inadvertently, I assure you) to chase away some of our own staff with my rampant and wanton negativity from last year, which stemmed in large part from the brutal sophomore season of one Geovany Soto, NL Rookie of the Year of 2008.

Seems like you can't criticize a guy without making the implicit demand to have him traded or released.  I of course find this notion to be outrageously presumptuous.  Geo Soto was the best catcher in the major leagues in 2008.  The 2008 Cubs team was, in the regular season, the best Cubs team since at least 1969, if not the pennant winners of the 1930s.  I publicly went on the air in Iowa with my choice of Geo Soto as my 2008 Cubs MVP.  He is the best position player developed by the Cubs since Mark Grace, and based on the horrendous state of catching in the game these days, was a major strategic threat for us that year.

I have also mentioned being in attendance at a Cubs Caravan event that spring, when Geo was asked what the key to his resurgence in the organization was, seeings how he went from a non-factor to a AAA MVP in 2007, he quickly and resoundingly stated "conditioning".  He admitted it never was a priority to him, that he knew he tended to gain weight, and once he hit the gym, his game improved dramatically.

He knew the secret, he saw its benefits, and yet, he chose to follow up his ROY season with a winter of eating, smoking, and presumably other carrying on as they do in the PR.  They party down there, make no doubt.  He came back fat, sluggish, sloppy behind the plate, late to react to breaking stuff at the plate.  Our strategic advantage was lost, I knew why, heard it from his own mouth, and as a once and current fat guy, I also know that you just don't flip a switch and turn it back on. 

The fat might seem to come overnight, but it takes months, even years of dedicated work to get rid of it.  Life ain't fair sometimes to people with fat tendencies, and Geo is going to have to spend the rest of his career mindful of everything he puts in his mouth. 

I agree with all of you - you have to keep the guy, and you have to play the guy.  My assertion was that he needed to pay the price for his lapse in judgment, and it didn't appear he was having to face any consequences, at least publicly.

However, happily, somehow he got the message for 2010.  For Geo Soto is in great shape, smacking the ball all over the yard.  I expect great things from him this year.  I expect he will get through the season without any conditioning-based injuries.  I expect he will approach the productivity of 2008.  I expect the Cubs as a whole to rise in the standings because catching still sucks, and having Geo Soto behind the plate, in great shape, is a bonus.  Time will tell if he continues to approach his craft the way he has this off-season.  But barring any accidental injuries, Soto should play well.

And yes, if he does, I will come out here and kiss his ass, just like all of you did last year.  You have to earn my love, honey.

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The Tribune published an article yesterday in which the Cubs acknowledged the possibility that they might not be able to keep both Kevin Millar and Chad Tracy on the 25-man-roster.  This got me thinking, and although much can happen between now and then, here's the lay of the land (from my sensible-but-not-always-realistic perspective):

Opening Day 25 Man Roster

SP - Zambrano, Dempster, Gorzelanny, Wells, Silva
MR - Marshall, Grabow, Caridad, Gray, Berg
CL - Marmol

Why Silva? It may shock you that some baseball moves are political.  Silva belongs in the rotation about as much as you or I do, but his large contract mixed with his poor attitude means that it might be best for him to pitch there and fail.  Once Lilly is set to return, Silva can be slotted into the bullpen and the weakest link there can ride off to the Iowan sunset.

Why six relievers?  I have long believed that the Cubs are freakin' crazy for insisting on carrying seven arms, and this year's crop of relief pitchers are weaker than anything we've encountered in quite a while.  It just doesn't make sense for Lou to go with seven mediocre arms if he can get by with six.

C - Geo Soto, Three Finger Hill
1B - Derrek Lee, Kevin Millar
2B - Mike Fontenot, Jeff Baker
SS - Ryan Theriot
3B - Aramis Ramirez, Chad Tracy
LF - Alfonso Soriano
CF - Marlon Byrd, Sam Fuld
RF - Kosuke Fukudome, Xavier Nady

Why not Hoff?  Last year demonstrated clearly that Micah Hoffpauir is not really cut out to hit at the major league level.  He had a few good games, a few massive clouts, but if the Cubs are going to carry an extra first baseman/outfielder, it might as well be Millar -- until he proves he's old and busted.

Millar and Tracy?  Only until Andres Blanco is healthy enough to play.  At some point, the Cubs will need to make a choice about who belongs on their bench.  Frankly, if Nady is healthy enough and can cover the ground (he last played center field in 2007), I'd consider dropping Fuld and letting Nady cover center field and right field, while allowing Millar to play a few games in left. 

Regardless of whether or not there's room for the two veterans, I hope the Cubs avoid investing too much faith in Micah Hoffpauir, Sam Fuld, Carlos Silva, or any of the assorted bullpen cast-offs.  To win they probably will need to be patient enough to allow some of these guys the chance to succeed (or fail), but to win they also need to not hold for too long onto the ghost of hope that they held for these jabrones at the start of the season.

Please feel free to post your disagreements below, I'm sure everybody has an opinion about who belongs on the 25-man-roster, and why.

Behold, the destruction or salvation of the 2010 Chicago Cubs.  Carlos Marmol is the key.  In a bullpen rife with weakness, with no other option available, Jim Hendry is putting all of his closer eggs into Marmol's basket.  Looking purely at his stuff, it is evident that Carlos is the right choice to make.  He is at times unhittable.  In 307.2 career innings of work, Marmol has surrendered a mere 195 hits.  That's freaking ridiculous.

But he is also at times unable to hit the strike zone.  His BB/9 ratio went up dramatically between 2008 and 2009 (from a respectable 4.2 per 9 innings to a terrifying 7.9 per 9 last year).  In other words, up until 2009 Marmol was effective, but last year he was effectively wild.  This is a risky scenario for a guy who's expected to end each game he pitches in.  There aren't many pitchers I can think of who had long, successful careers while walking 7.9 batters per 9 innings of work.

If Carlos is able to face down his pitching demons and regularly locate the strike zone, then I anticipate that he will have an outstanding season and the Cubs will be that much more likely to compete successfully.  But if he falls, so fall the Cubs.  There's just nobody else in the bullpen who can assume that role, and Jim Hendry is unlikely to pull a trade for anybody who can.

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You've gotta respect the Cubs blogs that devote a lot of time to Spring Training, like Bleed Cubbie Blue.  Those guys obviously are passionate about the team.  We haven't spent a lot of time talking about Spring Training here at GROTA, though, partly because we're looking ahead to the games that matter, and partly because they don't mean a whole heck of a lot.

For example - in his debut with the Cubs, Carlos Silva got hammered, and everybody panicked the way they do when bad things go worse.  But it's Spring Training, and as much as we shouldn't worry about Silva's 10.80 ERA, we should also not worry about Carlos Zambrano's 9.00 ERA (and I don't think anybody is), or Tom Diamond's 0.00 ERA.  I learned a long time ago that Spring Training isn't a fair predictor of success or failure.

That said, there are some players trying like hell to get jobs who have done fantastically, or horribly.  Tyler Colvin is batting .520, although he's basically cock-blocked by Fukudome for the time being.  Mike Fontenot, who some thought would get DFA'd this winter, leads the charge to get a second shot at second base with his .500 AVG and 8 RBI in 19 at bats.  Chad Tracy, who may or may not crack the team, is cracking the bat right now by batting .353.  Your favorite and mine, Kevin Millar, is batting .600 in 8 games and looks like a sure bet to wedge his way into the roster.

Pitching wise, everybody is getting smacked around with a few notable exceptions.  Sean Marshall (2.57 ERA in 7.0 IP), Andrew Cashner (1.80 ERA in 5.0 IP), Ryan Dempster (0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP), James Russell (0.00 ERA in 4.2 IP), Esmailin Caridad (0.00 ERA in 4.1 IP), the aforementioned Diamond (0.00 ERA in 4.1 IP), Carlos Marmol (2.25 ERA in 4.0 IP), John Gaub (2.70 ERA in 3.1 IP), and Justin Berg (3.00 ERA in 3.0 IP) are the best arms on the pitching staff so far.

And yet...
For those who are new to the blog, or new to actively following the Cubs in general, I can only offer this one piece of advice during Spring Training: believe nothing.  It's all a huge work.  (In other words, the stories are manufactured, blown out of proportion, and not particularly believable.)

We will always see the Resurgent Veteran story.  Player X has had a few down years as of late, but in a last effort bid to hang on he has worked extra hard, is healthier than he's ever been, and thinks he'll have a great year.

We will also always see the Prospect Done Good story.  Player Y is young, but brimming with talent.  Let's watch with excitement as he storms the field, wields the bat, and gives us something to be excited about now and for years to come.

We will also always see the Rag-Tag Team Comes Together story.  Sure, all these guys have had issues in the past, but they are playing well together, they are enjoying each other's company, and they're even hanging out together outside of the ballpark!

These tales are as perennial as the grass.  Don't buy into them.  We won't really know a thing about this team, really, until they're one or two months in, faced with unexpected injuries and disastrous personnel issues.  Until then it's a Sunday at the Carnival.  Fun, exciting, but disconnected from reality.

Fun with other cultures - many of the Cubs' Latin American relievers have names that tend to lend themselves to lame-o nicknames.  There's Carlos Marmol, who some call "the Marmot".  There was former Cub Jose Ascanio, who I was emotionally unable to refer to as anything else but the "Asscan".  And now we have Esmailin Caridad, who I am going to have to dub "Smiley".  It is like throwing salt over your left shoulder after knocking over a salt shaker.  There's no reason why - I just have to do it.

Get used to Smiley.  After watching a weekend of guys with 60's and 70's, and occasionally 20 on their back (yeah, Thomas Diamond, you suck, too) walk batter after batter, you quickly realize why Lou Piniella likes guys who throw strikes.  Caridad throws strikes, and unless we can finally complete a trade for Jason Frasor, I think Smiley is going to end up as the new 8th inning guy. 

One negative is that out of 6 inherited runners last year, 4 scored.  Another negative, as I perceive it, is that he was used exclusively as a starter in the minors.  A third strike against him - he is only in his third season of professional baseball.  Perhaps in his brief stint last year, he was too dumb to realize what he was doing, but he was very impressive with his 1.40 ERA and his 17/3 K/BB ratio.  These are numbers that please Sweet Lou, and they have continued this spring.

All in all, I still strongly advocate a trade for Frasor, especially if it involves Micah Hoffpauir, who more and more looks headed back to Iowa this spring.  Of course, the worse Hoff looks, the less likely Toronto will want him.  I'm sure they are holding out for Tyler Colvin, who they simply cannot have.  I am not comfortable, myself, handing the set-up man job to Caridad.  But he will at least come north with us, hopefully as a 7th inning guy, or something else.  It is only fair to him to have the time to develop.

AJ's take:

Rob is right: If Caridad continues to not walk opponents, Lou will be very pleased.

I also wanted to direct your attention to a few words on Caridad as written by a guy whose writing I really enjoy, Harry Pavlidis of Cubs f/x. Of Esmailin's recent spring performance, Pavlidis writes:

"Caridad looks headed towards later innings than expected, barring a move by Trader Jim. Caridad is… just about 2 mph off his 93+ average fastball from 2009. He did crack 94 a couple of times, so he's not far from his 95 that makes me so giddy.

"He broke 95 mph 39 times last year, 97 seven times, including his top pitch of 98.2 mph."

In other words, this kid throws heat. Just thought you'd like to know.

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Spring training stats are almost completely meaningless -- the key term being "almost."

There's really two groups of players for which I think you can really read into their spring numbers: 1) in the field, borderline Triple A/bench players; and 2) from the mound, pitchers fighting for a rotation spot.

For the Cubs, that list includes (in no particular order): Tyler Colvin, Starlin Castro, Sam Fuld, Micah Hoffpauir, Chad Tracy, Kevin Millar, Darwin Barney, and Andres Blanco; and for pitchers: Sean Marshall, Tom Gorzelanny, Carlos Silva, and Jeff Samardzija.

Admittedly, that's kind of a lot of names. But watch how easily I slide and dice through all of them, and tell you where they oughta be headed come April.

The 5th OF candidates (Colvin, Fuld, Hoffpauir): Everyone knows Colvin has been raking. At the same time, neither Fuld nor Hoffpauir has been doing himself any favors.

I think you'll all agree that a continued lack of hitting would hurt Hoffpauir's chances of making the big league team more than it would Fuld's. I'm going to assume that happens, tab Fuld as the 5th OF, and put Hoff... somewhere.

On the other hand, Tyler Colvin is 24 years old, and needs a lot more time at the plate before we can really tell what he's capable of doing. The absolute WORST THING for him right now would be stashing him on the bench in Chicago. He should be starting in Iowa instead.

The 25th man (Castro, Tracy, Millar, Barney, Blanco): Castro's situation is similar to Colvin's, and Lou has even said as much. He'll be starting in Iowa this year.

If Lou decides Fontenot can handle backing up at short (which appears likely to me), neither Barney nor Blanco fit on the team. Thus, it's down to Tracy and Millar for the last spot.

It's looking like Nady will be with the team on Opening Day as a right-handed bench bat, even with the bad elbow. To me at least, that makes Millar redundant. But the guy is having a better spring than Tracy. Also he's super great for the clubhouse, apparently. So he'll probably make the team as the 25th man.

The pitching (Marsh, Silva the Hutt, Gorzo, Shark): Can anyone explain to me how Samardzija deserves to pitch in the major leagues? I didn't think so.

Tom Gorzelanny's spring innings have looked the best of anyone in this bunch. He's also shown an ability to succeed at the major league level in the past. This guy should definitely be starting, either as the 4th man while Lilly is injured, or the 5th when he comes back.

The 5th/6th starter should be Marshall. He'd be fine while Lilly's hurt, but you and I both know: His ERA as a starter is in the mid-5's, and as a reliever it's in the mid-3's.

Oh right, also, it appears Carlos Silva sucks.

The Cubs and Lou Piniella are presently acting like two teenagers at a formal.  Lou's on one side of the gym, making wry comments to his buddies, looking the entire time across the gym at the Cubs who are acting hoity toity, pretending that they don't give  a damn.  But sooner or later, the DJ is going to make a muffled "last call" into his microphone, and Lou and the Cubs will come together for that final dance.

And I'm totally cool with that.  It's true, I was not thrilled with his managerial moves last year.  I thought he demonstrated a lack of fire, I thought he waited too long to make some roster moves, and I felt that some of his other choices were pretty clearly the wrong ones.  We joked too often about his senior moments, and there was a general sense of restlessness felt toward the Cubs skipper.

By "we," I mostly mean Rob and myself.  I learned early last year that expressing dissatisfaction with Lou Piniella was a hot button topic with Cub fans, who loved him fiercely because he was "better than Dusty Baker."  I totally agree with that -- he's definitely better than Dusty Baker, but I think I would be better than Dusty Baker and I have no business managing a baseball team.

Therefore, because Lou's mistakes upset me, because his choices disappointed me, and because his passion to manage appeared invisible to me, some of you might be surprised that I suggest the Cubs bring him back for another year.  But I have one simple, logical reason for making that statement:

If Lou retires, then Jim Hendry picks the next Cubs manager.

Go ahead, read it again.  Heck, go back and read it a third time.  While it's true that Hendry has probably a better than 50% chance of picking the next Cubs manager no matter when Lou hangs 'em up, I would like to avoid that scenario if possible.  If Lou stays on with the Cubs for another year, and they continue their downward trend -- as we may expect them to do, with an aging club of overpriced veterans -- then 2011 might be the final year of the Hendry chapter. 

And if Lou retires after 2010, and we still have one more year of Jim Hendry to sweat over, then that means he'll have chosen probably not the best manager available (like when he picked Lou over the younger, talented manager Joe Girardi), and we'll have another awkward situation in Chicago, which I would like to see the Cubs avoid.